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“Super El Nino” Jeopardizes Global Food Supplies In 2026 | John Farris of LandFund Partners

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News and Commentary

Episode Overview (Monetary Matters, sponsored by Land Fund Partners)

The episode argues that global food security is approaching a near-term stress point due to a structural squeeze:

  • World arable land—especially water/irrigated capacity—is shrinking
  • Demand is increasing, driven by:
    • population growth
    • rising protein consumption

The guest, John Ferris (Founder & CEO, Land Fund Partners), frames this as immediately relevant because a “super El Niño” could disrupt grain and rice production at the same time that global grain reserves are unusually tight.

Core Claims About Demand, Land, and Reserves

Protein-driven demand is rising

  • As populations move up the “protein scale” (notably in East Asia), the shift is described as difficult to reverse without major social instability.

Land and productive water are tightening

  • Producing more protein is presented as land-intensive.
  • The conversation emphasizes that protein demand typically requires multiple units of grain per unit of protein (with feed conversion described as roughly 3–5x more grain than direct plant consumption).

Food stocks are low

  • Global reserves are cited at about 70 days of coverage, down from roughly 110 days a decade earlier.
  • A lower buffer increases the risk that weather shocks become supply-chain disruptions.

Why Climate (Especially Super El Niño) Matters Now

  • The discussion links potential climate disruptions to thin reserve conditions.
  • A super El Niño is expected to reduce output during critical planting/harvest windows.

India and rice are highlighted

  • India’s rice production depends heavily on the monsoon.
  • The guest expects El Niño-linked dryness/heat could pressure rice supplies.

Related water/climate stress examples

The episode references prior regional stress, especially:

  • California rice acreage decline attributed to:
    • water constraints
    • development taking water rights out of agriculture
    • (farmers reportedly being paid to not grow and conserve water)
  • Broader point: water availability and climate variability can quickly change which regions can produce profitably.

Land Investment Thesis: Irrigated Farmland in the Mississippi Delta Alluvial Aquifer

The investment argument is that farmland with reliable water is positioned to outperform because it is less vulnerable to drought and climate volatility than rain-dependent production.

Land Fund Partners’ described footprint

  • The firm is described as managing a large irrigated portfolio in the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
  • Focus: farmland over the Mississippi/related alluvial aquifer.

Claimed differentiators

  • High irrigation coverage: stated as 93% irrigated for their holdings.
  • Aquifer replenishment: portrayed as being replenished by river systems, using a “bathtub” analogy (inflows maintain water levels).
  • Crop diversity: claims the region can grow more crop types beyond corn/soy, including specialty crops and staples, due to water access.
  • Water longevity: at current draw rates, they claim roughly ~300 years of water for their average farm, contrasted with basins where groundwater is depleted faster.

Water Rights as an Emerging Asset (and Why It May Gain Value)

  • The episode stresses that water rights are not yet aggressively priced in their region.
  • They argue value may rise as measurement, monitoring, and regulation expand.

Market comparison: the western U.S.

  • A comparison is made to western U.S. water markets, where water rights have already developed and (per the guest) outperformed equities over long periods.

What could drive demand

  • Potential future regulation/fees for overuse could increase demand for efficient groundwater use.
  • The episode also notes early signals from data center companies seeking water “offsets,” described as more complex than it initially appears due to power and cooling water needs.

Operating Model and Performance Narrative

Land Fund Partners’ approach is presented as:

  1. Acquire farmland (often from farming families)
  2. Improve it (notably irrigation/drip systems and infrastructure)
  3. Lease it to large-scale operators
  4. Actively manage it (including required regenerative practices)

Tenant/farm-scale strategy

  • Working with large tenant farmers is framed as a “scale game”: bigger operators can spread equipment and labor costs across more acres.

Rent and economic management claims

  • They describe a strategy to increase rents annually, stated as 5–10%.
  • Drivers cited include improvements, input resilience, and policy-supported economics.

Regenerative agriculture requirements

  • Regenerative agriculture is described as required across the acreage.
  • The expected path:
    • initial transition costs
    • then higher yields/lower inputs, improving net economics
    • (cited as roughly 30–40% more net income after establishment)

“Optionality” beyond row crops

The episode suggests additional income streams from diversified uses, including:

  • Solar development via long-term leases (enabled by transmission lines crossing farmland)
  • Carbon credits (described as obtained earlier because their fund was “first”)
  • Recreational leasing (e.g., duck hunting)
  • Potential mineral-related value (they mention lithium deposits in Arkansas, though not positioned on their land)

Policy Backdrop: Government Subsidies as Stabilizers for Farmers

A major argument is that farm profitability and lease stability are supported by:

  • U.S. crop insurance
  • subsidized revenue guarantees

How support is described to work

  • Programs that use production averages (an “Olympic average” method) then guarantee a portion of expected revenue.
  • Minimum-price support / price-loss coverage for key crops such as:
    • corn
    • soybeans
    • rice
    • cotton, etc.
  • A recent major U.S. bill is cited as increasing coverage ratios by roughly 15–30%.

These supports are framed as enabling stability for tenant farmers—supporting high occupancy (no vacancy) and consistent payment performance.

Outlook for Commodities (Corn/Soy/Cotton/Rice) and the “Rice” Emphasis

  • The episode suggests key crops should see supportive demand over coming decades due to rising protein consumption and cotton’s strategic importance.
  • Rice is emphasized as having the greatest near-term upward risk, due to:
    • tight global reserves
    • expectations of El Niño disruption in major exporters and monsoon-dependent regions
    • rice’s high global calorie importance and water intensity, making it more vulnerable to water/heat disruptions

They also argue crop switching is constrained by irrigation, equipment, and timing—so not all farms can pivot quickly to rice even if prices rise.

Bottom-Line Conclusion

The guest’s overall message is that global food security risk is rising in the near term—driven by super El Niño conditions plus thin reserves—and that the best defense/investment positioning is:

Irrigated farmland with long-duration water and water-right optionality, especially in the Mississippi alluvial aquifer region.

The fund also attributes stability and returns to:

  • active management
  • regenerative farming
  • diversified land uses
  • policy-supported farm economics

Presenters / Contributors

  • Jack — host of Monetary Matters
  • John Ferris — economist; Founder & CEO, Land Fund Partners

Original video