Abstenção Induzida 2

Summary

Fernando Horta revisits his first-round hypothesis that targeted disinformation may have increased abstention and helped give Bolsonaro-aligned forces a narrow advantage. He says the first-round data was too noisy to establish a clear pattern, but attributes Eduardo Paes’s loss in Rio de Janeiro partly to abstention and voters being misdirected about how to cast their ballots.

Horta argues that voter suppression in the runoff became more overt, shifting from digital tactics to transport disruptions. He alleges that bus services were cut by about 30% in São Paulo and Salvador—cities where Lula had strong support—with poorer neighborhoods particularly affected. He says requests were made to arrest the cities’ mayors and transport secretaries.

In Horta’s view, reduced transit could selectively prevent Lula supporters from reaching polling places and create an approximately two-point advantage for Bolsonarism. He calls this “induced abstention,” says similar tactics may have been used since 2018, and reports that disruptions were recorded in around ten cities.

Horta also says Minister Zanin authorized voting to continue until 7 p.m., but argues the order came too late to help at polling places that had already closed. He says it remained unclear how affected votes would be handled and characterizes the events as an attempt to manipulate the election.

Presenter: Fernando Horta