3 year Bull Market Ends - Magic Tanks

Summary

Rudy argues that the nearly three-year bull market in trading-card collectibles has ended. He dates its start to January 2024 and says it lasted about 35 months, with conditions turning bearish by November 1, 2026. His view is based on conversations with local game stores and distributors, PCG grading-submission trends, and observed listings and sales. He expects heightened volatility over the next 30–90 days, noting that November and December are typically weak seasonal months for collectors.

His central thesis is that prices are being repriced lower across many newer releases—not necessarily because every product is poor, but because supply is abundant, demand and FOMO are fading, and stores are trying to free up cash. He says some retailers and distributors are carrying excess inventory, while online selling fees and shipping can turn seemingly small price declines into losses.

Rudy does not predict that collectibles will fall to zero or that the entire market will collapse. He describes the shift as a return to more normal conditions after an unusually strong run.

Market Examples and Figures

Magic: The Gathering

• Reality Fracture collector boxes reportedly fell from $590–$620 around release to $375, a decline of about 40%. Play boxes fell from roughly $190–$210 to $125, a 30–40% decline in three weeks.
• The Hobbit collector boxes fell from about $900 to $600 in 45 days. Play boxes declined from $200–$220 to $130, roughly 45%.
• Lorwyn Eclipse booster boxes were around $105, with some online listings near $98.
• Rudy says Star Trek collector boxes were around $600, but considers the market unstable. He cites game-box costs of about $120 wholesale (or $125 plus tax in one example); selling online could mean a 10–25% loss after fees and shipping.
• He also reports pressure across Marvel, Spider-Man, Avatar, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles products. Examples include:
  • Spider-Man boxes falling from $140 to $119
  • Avatar boxes falling from $150 to $120
  • Some Marvel boxes falling from $120 to $108
  • Turtles products with roughly $120 wholesale costs versus $108 online, potentially leaving stores with a substantial loss after expenses
• He says older products can behave differently. Ixalan collector boxes had historical highs around $1,200–$1,400, while newer distributor-supplied products face more direct selling pressure.
• He also expects reprints, including of Tarkir, Final Fantasy, and Strixhaven, to add supply.

Pokémon

• A 30th-anniversary ETB was around $117, versus a $250 preorder price—about a 50% decline.
• He expects additional product waves within 7–10 days, estimating that roughly 50–75% of total supply could then be in the market, with more premium products expected in November. He is uncertain whether further reprints will follow.
• Some other Pokémon products were described as around $170–$180 including tax and shipping, near or below suggested retail pricing.

Other Games

• One Piece’s latest EB05 Heroines set reportedly fell about 30% from around $300. Several recent One Piece sets were said to be down 10–30%.
• The latest Flesh and Blood set was holding near $100 per box and was presented as a relative bright spot.
• Lorcana boxes were cited at roughly $120–$140, against store costs of about $80–$90. Rudy suggests Ravensburger delay collector boxes for 6–12 months and reassess market conditions.
• He says Riftbound products are broadly declining and Gundam is holding up somewhat better, while noting that limited distribution has not prevented price weakness.
• Star Wars collector boxes were cited as moving from about $400 to $600, but Rudy says he cannot tell whether that price will hold.

Investment Approach, Risks, and Recommendations

• Track market breadth and liquidity, not just individual product stories. Falling prices across many releases, stores seeking buyers for excess stock, and lower online sale prices point to a broad repricing.
• Compare net resale proceeds with cost, including platform fees, shipping, taxes, and business overhead. A product that sells above wholesale may still be unprofitable.
• Consider supply and reprints, especially for new releases where distributors and stores still have inventory. Rudy contrasts these with older products that may have different supply dynamics.
• Manage liquidity risk. He warns that debt-financed inventory, maxed-out credit cards, and forced selling could be especially damaging over the next 30–60 days. He advises stores and collectors not to overextend.
• For Pokémon 30th-anniversary products, Rudy says interested buyers could build positions gradually over 4–12 weeks rather than trying to call the bottom. He stresses that prices could still fall further and that he does not know where the bottom is.
• For buyers with a 3–5-year horizon, lower entry prices may be welcome, but lower prices do not guarantee recovery.
• On return expectations, he does not expect broad appreciation across sealed collectibles. He estimates that 90 out of 100 sealed products may fail to produce good results, with only a few exceptions potentially performing strongly. His practical advice is to buy products you genuinely like, spend cautiously, and avoid debt.

Rudy also references broader financial-market uncertainty, mentioning a rise in the VIX and possible—but unconfirmed—connections to a crypto hack and a sell-off in AI-related technology stocks. He does not claim to have established a causal link.

Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

• Financial markets and instruments: S&P 500, VIX, Bitcoin/cryptocurrency, Binance
• Stocks and sectors: Hasbro (HAS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Walmart (WMT), General Mills (GIS), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA); oil and gas, food, retail, and AI-related technology
• Collectibles: Magic: The Gathering sealed boxes and sets; Pokémon ETBs and booster products; Lorcana, One Piece, Flesh and Blood, Riftbound, Gundam, and Star Wars trading-card products

Disclosures and Sources

No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer is stated. Rudy discusses his own buying, selling, and inventory, and says he plans upcoming sales of products through his business. He also promotes Premier Card Grading and its services.

Presenter/source: Rudy of Alpha Investments. His cited information comes from conversations with local game stores and distributors, PCG grading and submission data, market listings or sales observed on eBay and TCGplayer, and messages from patrons and customers.