«Люди устали терпеть». Зубаревич о ценах, зарплатах, топливном кризисе и проблемах регионов

Summary

Professor Natalya Zubarevich argues that Russia’s economy is slowing, particularly in civilian manufacturing and investment. She describes the deterioration as gradual rather than an imminent collapse: businesses and households are adjusting, though public fatigue and anxiety are growing.

Regional elections

Zubarevich did not follow the campaign or vote. She cautions against inferring socioeconomic conditions from reported regional election results. In some places, the results may seem consistent with local circumstances; in others, the figures and people’s lived experiences appear to belong to separate realities.

Drone strikes, oil and fuel

Regional manufacturing figures show weaker performance in areas affected by attacks on refineries and other industrial sites. Estimates cited in the discussion put gasoline production down by about 20%. Lower output can mean lost production and tax revenue, but higher prices and federal compensation mechanisms partly offset the impact. Oil-producing regions have also benefited from higher world prices.

Fuel shortages vary by region. Vertically integrated oil companies have been urged to restrain prices, while independent stations that buy fuel at higher wholesale prices may charge considerably more. Some independent stations may not survive.

Small businesses and agriculture

Damage to marketplace warehouses caused substantial losses, but Zubarevich does not expect mass closures of small businesses. Many sellers are spreading their sales across multiple online platforms. The most vulnerable are those facing large losses, debt and cash-flow problems.

For farmers, she says the main difficulties are weak export opportunities and low grain prices, alongside higher costs—not a general diesel shortage. Russia has surpluses of several food products, though it remains dependent on imports for some items, including much of its milk and beef supply.

Civilian economy and investment

Zubarevich describes the civilian economy as having “come to a standstill.” Headline manufacturing growth masks declines across many civilian industries, including construction materials, chemicals and machinery. Investment fell in the first half of the year, weakening demand for equipment and other investment goods.

Housing construction is also down nationally, with significant variation between regions. She expects investment to remain weak in 2027.

Spending, incomes and wages

Retail sales have held up, supported by spending from accumulated savings, somewhat easier access to consumer credit and a relatively strong ruble. However, this surge is fading.

Real household incomes rose only 1.2% in the first half of the year, far below the pace of recent years, and the wage race is slowing. Average figures conceal major disparities: Moscow’s income statistics are lifted by concentrated property and investment income, while many lower-wage regions depend more on agriculture and lower-paid industries.

Jobs and labor shortages

Rather than resorting to widespread layoffs, Russian employers often reduce hours or put workers on part-time schedules. Around 4.6% of employees at large and medium-sized organizations were reported as underemployed. Zubarevich considers this significant but sees no evidence of mass layoffs. She expects businesses to keep cutting costs as conditions worsen.

She attributes labor shortages mainly to demographics: the cohorts now entering the workforce are much smaller than those in their late 30s. Restrictions on visa-free migration have reduced the number of labor migrants from roughly 4.5 million before the pandemic to under 3 million. Employers are recruiting workers from countries such as India, but higher visa and documentation costs have made this less attractive.

Shortages are particularly acute in blue-collar jobs and engineering. In Zubarevich’s view, a return of people from military service or abroad would not transform the labor market quickly.

Regional budgets

About 65–67 regions were in deficit in the first half of the year. Zubarevich says this is broadly comparable to the previous year, rather than proof of imminent collapse. Regional revenues rose, helped by oil-related income tax receipts, while federal transfers were flat.

Regions are restraining spending, including on roads, healthcare facilities and social support. She considers a federal deficit of around 3% of GDP serious but manageable through domestic borrowing—not an automatic sign of economic collapse.

Public mood and outlook

Zubarevich says people are tired of enduring and adapting, with anxiety and depression becoming more visible. Still, she expects them to keep adjusting rather than face a sudden economic breakdown.

She expects 2026 to be harder than 2025. The outlook for 2027 depends heavily on the conflict, export routes and external conditions. Even if the conflict ends, she warns, investment and civilian industry would not rebound quickly. She advises businesses to focus on cost control and households to adapt while protecting their psychological health.

Presenters and contributors

• Marianna Minsker — presenter and interviewer
• Natalya Zubarevich — professor and guest, regional socioeconomic development expert