Video summary

Quarterly Theory Bootcamp │ True Change In The State Of Delivery (tCISD) EP. 4

Main summary

Key takeaways

Educational

Main ideas / lessons

  • What TCISD is

    • TCISD (True Change in the State of Delivery) is a trading concept the speaker says they founded using Quarterly Theory.
    • It is based on an earlier idea called Change in the State of Delivery taught by ICT, with the speaker adding their own “true” twist.

  • Why TCISD matters

    • The video frames TCISD as a mechanical entry technique used to confirm “Sequential SMT.”
    • Claimed relationships:
      • Sequential SMT confirms manipulation
      • TCISD confirms that the sequential SMT is valid, enabling higher-confidence entries

  • Core dependency

    • A TCISD only matters/occurs if a sequential SMT occurs first.
    • The TCISD is used to decide when to enter after manipulation reverses/continues according to the framework.

Methodology / instructions (step-by-step)

1) Know the baseline concept: “Change in the State of Delivery” (ICT)

Precondition

  • Liquidity must be taken before you take a trade.

Two entry approaches

  • Market Structure Shift (MSS) approach

    • Wait for price to close above the most recent swing high (after liquidity is taken).
    • Then wait for price to retrace into the displacement leg for a worse risk/reward (RR) entry.

  • Change in the State of Delivery approach (better “sniper” entries)

    • Instead of waiting for the MSS closure:
      • Identify the specific candles/series that took liquidity.
      • Wait for price to close above (bullish) / below (bearish) those candles—specifically the candle bodies.
      • Enter after a retest of the validated TCISD zone.

Stop placement (basic rule)

  • Stop goes near the relevant extreme:
    • Low of the most recent low that took liquidity
    • (Later: more precisely on the sequential SMT low/high)

2) Determine the “true” version: TCISD (speaker’s method)

A) Time frame / cycle alignment (critical rule)

  • Do NOT change time frames to find TCISD.
  • Find TCISD on the exact same time frame where the sequential SMT was identified.

Mapping given in the video:

  • Yearly cycle → weekly TF sequential SMT → 1-week TCISD
  • Quarterly cycle → daily TF sequential SMT → daily TCISD
  • Monthly cycle → 4-hour TF sequential SMT → 4-hour TCISD
  • Weekly cycle → 1-hour TF sequential SMT → 1-hour TCISD
  • Daily cycle → 15-minute TF sequential SMT → 15-minute TCISD
  • 90-minute micro → 1-minute TCISD (as stated)

B) TCISD identification logic (what candle counts)

  1. Sequential SMT must happen first

    • Detect sequential SMT between consecutive quarters (or the relevant consecutive periods of the cycle).

  2. Pick the first liquidity-taking candle

    • Find the very first candle that ran below/above the previous quarter low/high that created the sequential SMT.
    • That first liquidity-taking candle becomes the TCISD “candidate” candle.

  3. Validation via close through/above/below the candidate candle body

    • Bullish scenario (reversal up):
      • Price must close above the open/body of the candle that created sequential SMT.
    • Bearish scenario (reversal down):
      • Price must close below the open/body of the candle that created sequential SMT.

C) When the sequential SMT candle “has the wrong direction”

  • The candle that created sequential SMT should have the “correct” candle type for the expected outcome.

    • For example: for bearish sequential SMT leading to bullish TCISD validation, the candidate TCISD candle may need to be bearish.

  • If the first sequential SMT candle closes in the “wrong” color (less likely but possible):

    • Do not use it
    • Look to the left and choose the most recent appropriate candle of the required type (e.g., the most recent bearish candle for a bullish TCISD setup)
    • Then apply the same validation:
      • close through its open/body
      • then retest

3) Entry rules once TCISD is confirmed

Entry timing

  • After validation, enter on a retest of the TCISD area.

Primary entry

  • Enter when price tags/retests the validated TCISD zone.

Alternative entry (“gap entry”)

  • If a gap slightly above/below forms relative to TCISD, an entry can be taken from that gap.

Stop loss placement

  • Stop goes on the extreme from the sequential SMT candle/level:
    • Bullish: described as sequential SMT low
    • Bearish: described as sequential SMT high

Targets

  • Target is described generally as buy-side / sell-side liquidity or continuation toward where the higher time frame is heading.
  • (Specific target is not always clearly defined in the text provided.)

4) Trade management: invalidation / disrespect rules

  • TCISD can become invalidated.

Bullish TCISD invalidation (“disrespect”)

  • If price closes above the closure/body level of the TCISD candle (via the described “disrespect” logic), it implies disrespect.

Bearish TCISD invalidation

  • Symmetric idea:
    • Disrespect occurs by closing opposite the validated direction relative to the TCISD candle body/closure.

Practical guideline

  • If TCISD is disrespected more than ~two times, the speaker says to avoid the trade.
  • If it disrespects once or twice and then reconfirms, it can still be acceptable.

5) Strength vs weakness using TCISD behavior (how to “read” it)

  • TCISD behaves like a PDA / supply-demand style reference in the speaker’s explanation.

  • If aligned with higher-timeframe direction

    • You want TCISD to be respected
    • Respect → supports movement toward target liquidity

  • If not aligned / behavior changes

    • You may see wicks into/out of the TCISD body but lack of clean closes
    • Failure to close properly suggests weakness and possible continuation opposite the desired move

  • Key emphasis

    • Prefer clean closures through the TCISD open/body, not repeated wick-only behavior.

6) Multi-asset confirmation logic (ENQ / ES / YM)

  • Sequential SMT “can be looked at through the whole triad.”

  • Entry logic described:

    • If one correlated asset confirms the TCISD and another hasn’t:
      • You may still enter on the asset that has confirmed
      • Example: ENQ confirms, ES not yet → entry on ENQ; or vice versa

  • Caution about YM

    • The speaker says they personally don’t like trusting YM when it confirms while others disagree, because YM can “do its own thing” (least correlated of the three).

Speakers / sources featured (identified)

  • Primary speaker / creator

    • The host (unnamed in the subtitles) of Quarterly Theory Bootcamp
    • Creator of TCISD and the framework based on Quarterly Theory

  • Source concept (credited origin)

    • ICT — credited as the origin of the broader Change in the State of Delivery idea

Original video