Inside the Middle East 30 8 2026 Ambassador Hussein Haridy Former Assistant Foreign Minister

Overview

The episode of “Inside the Middle East” examines the ongoing Iran–US war and the lack of progress despite continued retaliatory strikes (“tit-for-tat”). Ambassador Hossein Haridy argues that neither side has gained strategically since fighting began, and that both the US administration and the Iranian regime have lost, even as a stalemate endures.

He suggests that both sides are trying to leverage the stalemate for advantage, but that Iran and the US still can’t find a workable way to end the confrontation.

Diplomatic and mediation efforts

• The discussion highlights ongoing mediation efforts, with attention on claims that Oman could play a key mediating role regarding navigation and management of the Hormuz Strait.
• Haridy says Oman and Iran have claimed they are “nearing an agreement,” but no concrete outcome has been published.
• He also references a visit to Tehran by Pakistani Army Field Marshal Asim Munir, who reportedly carried American proposals. However, Haridy says definitive word from both Tehran and Washington is still awaited on a memorandum of understanding intended to end operations that began around February 18/28 (date imprecision in subtitles).

Economics, oil disruption, and whether Hormuz is truly “closed”

• The program ties the conflict to economic disruption, particularly rising energy prices and wider inflation effects.
• Haridy pushes back on assertions that the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed. He cites US-reported shipping activity from recent months, claiming that thousands of tankers continued to pass through—carrying large volumes of oil—suggesting prices may not have surged as much as feared.
• While he concedes there are negative economic consequences, he emphasizes that impacts are uneven globally, with countries more dependent on importing oil and gas suffering more than others.

Sanctions and the timing of a deal

• The guest argues that US economic warfare and financial sanctions may be more effective than air strikes, shaping Iran’s willingness to meet American conditions.
• On whether negotiation should happen now, the guest suggests it could be the most convenient time for Iran to settle, before further breakdown of Iran’s financial system and economy—framing the decision as difficult but urging agreement sooner rather than later.

Iran’s military capacity: missiles, drones, and sustainability

• Haridy notes it is difficult to gauge Iran’s exact current stock of missiles and drones, but argues these resources are not infinite.
• He contends that Iran’s ability to replace losses has been curtailed and would be further limited by new sanctions.

Arab responses and long-term adaptation

• Regarding pressure on Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman), Haridy says they are adapting in the medium and long term.
• He claims that by 2028/2029, about 60% of oil and gas moving through Hormuz would use alternative routes. Therefore, if Iran continues insisting it can close Hormuz, Gulf states would become net losers for Iran in the long run.
• He frames Gulf cooperation with other powers as efforts to circumvent Iranian claims of control over the strait.

International dynamics (UN, Russia/China, EU)

• The guest says the UN Security Council is deadlocked.
• He notes that Russia and China are primarily watching closely:
  • Russia, he suggests, is preoccupied with Ukraine and does not view the Iran–US war as serving its interests.
  • China is concerned because it depends on major shipping chokepoints (notably Taiwan and Malacca) and agrees that critical sea lanes—such as Hormuz—should remain open and unobstructed.
• A possible near-term diplomatic opening is linked to the Trump–Xi summit in Washington (Sept. 23/24), after which a resolution in the Gulf might become possible.

Presenters or contributors

• Andrew Maher (host)
• His Excellency Ambassador Hossein Haridy (former Assistant Foreign Minister; guest)