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Market Outlook: November 9–13

The presenter sees the Russian market as unusually buoyant despite falling oil prices, weak economic conditions, and unresolved geopolitical risks. He attributes part of the rally in smaller stocks to short covering and warns that optimism ahead of Russia–US–Ukraine talks may be excessive.

Key Market Views and Framework

• Questions to assess before trading: Is the global economy entering a recession? Is the Russian market overbought or oversold? The presenter cautions against buying into sharp rallies and says overbought conditions may call for reducing exposure.
• Russian equities: The base case is a correction, potentially starting around the November 10–11 negotiations. The presenter expects disappointment could weigh on stocks.
  • Main index levels: 2,380 as a nearer correction target; 2,300–2,350 if selling deepens.
  • A rally toward 2,700 remains possible if short covering or positive geopolitical news sparks another squeeze. The presenter says investors with long positions should reduce or close them as the index approaches that level.
  • Longer term, he sketches a possible large double-bottom formation and eventual recovery toward 5,500–6,000, but only after a downturn or recession. This is a speculative technical scenario, not a near-term target.
• Futures signal: Moscow Exchange index futures were quoted around 2,479, versus a cash or base level near 2,480. The presenter treats futures trading below the underlying index as an unusual, bearish warning.
• Risk management: He urges caution, especially against using leverage in Russian stocks. A correction to 2,380 would not automatically make the market a buy; investors should reassess conditions and sentiment first. He also notes that a geopolitical headline could trigger a sudden rally against short positions.
• Global markets: He expects the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng to rise in the near term, while acknowledging recession risk. For US equities, he describes a possible support-based trade with a stop below the prior candle’s low; the stop could be hit.
• Russian bonds: He expects the RGBI to move higher and says OFZ bonds may offer attractive returns relative to volatile equities, though he gives no yield figures.

Macro and Event Risks

• Russia–US–Ukraine negotiations are scheduled for November 10–11. The presenter expects the market could be disappointed if they do not produce meaningful progress.
• US inflation data is also due during the week and could affect the S&P 500 and precious metals. A Sberbank RAS report for the first 10 months is mentioned.
• The presenter cites Russian inflation and persistently high interest rates as concerns, alongside economic stagnation, falling oil prices, weaker construction activity, government revenue pressures, and sanctions risk.
• He notes uncertainty around a reported Russian diesel deal and says further information on possible sanctions could arrive around December 10–15.
• He characterizes the Russian market’s relationship with oil and currency as delayed and potentially disrupted by geopolitical news or broader market stress.

Instruments, Assets, and Technical Levels

Russian Indices, Bonds, and Shares

The presenter discusses the Moscow Exchange index/IRUS, RTS, RGBI, OFZs, and Moscow Exchange index futures.

Shares mentioned include Sberbank, T-Bank, VTB, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Rosneft, Novatek, MTS (the transcript’s identification is unclear), Mechel, Segezha, Surgutneftegas preferred, ALROSA, Positive Technologies, and Yandex.

• Sberbank: Possible pullback toward ₽280, based on past declines after elevated retail positioning.
• T-Bank: ₽265, with ₽260 as a further possible level.
• VTB: Around ₽54 or lower.
• Gazprom: Around ₽102, versus roughly ₽114 at the time of the discussion.
• Gazprom Neft: ₽500–511.
• Lukoil: Around ₽5,700.
• Rosneft: Around ₽350 or somewhat lower.
• Novatek: Support near ₽1,134, with a possible move toward ₽1,070.
• MTS: The transcript’s identification is uncertain. A pullback toward ₽175 is possible, followed by a potential rebound.
• Mechel: Possible decline toward ₽42 before a short squeeze.
• Segezha: Possible correction toward ₽0.70–0.72 before a rebound.
• Surgutneftegas preferred: Possible pullback toward ₽41.50 before a potential breakout.
• Positive Technologies: Described as overbought near resistance, with a possible correction toward roughly ₽1,200–1,500. If the uptrend resumes, higher targets of ₽2,000–2,200 are mentioned.
• Yandex: Possible upside target around ₽4,100 if a technical formation breaks higher.

Currencies and Commodities

• Currencies: CNY/RUB is near 12.30. The presenter allows for a brief rise in the exchange rate during a Russian-equity selloff, followed by ruble strengthening. USD/RUB is discussed around 83.5–84 before a possible strengthening of the ruble.
• Energy: Oil had fallen by more than 10% over the preceding week. The presenter sees possible upside toward $95 and, in a bullish scenario, $120–140, while emphasizing that oil is highly sensitive to geopolitics. US natural gas is viewed positively, with a possible breakout above prior highs; 3,100 is cited as a near-term level.
• Precious metals and rates: Gold is expected to rise if it can hold above 4,100, with 4,600 as a subsequent level. Silver is seen as lagging gold by roughly 12%, with potential to outperform if gold rises; a move above 120 is mentioned as a possible historical-high target. The DXY and US 10-year yield are described as firm, which can pressure metals and equities. VIX is quoted at 25.

Other Markets and Assets

The presenter also discusses the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Hang Seng, Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, TLT, Bitcoin, Apple, Tesla, Li Auto, and Nio. He expects Bitcoin, Apple, Tesla, and Chinese shares to rise. Tesla is discussed with a possible move above $412.

Disclosures and Cautions

The presenter says the commentary is not investment advice and that he is not directing viewers to buy or sell. He says he personally has no long positions in the Russian market at the time of recording.

The video also promotes Sakura’s crypto-trading channel. Its trading-performance and capital claims are promotional statements made in the video and are not independently verified here.

Presenters and sources: The presenter is the unnamed host of the Bogdanoff Invest channel. Sakura is cited as the author of a promoted crypto-trading channel. The presenter also references an AI-generated market commentary channel called “Groza.”