الاجتماع الصباحى لجلسة يوم الاربعاء 30-09-2026 (التحليل الفنى- البورصة المصرية)

Market / Index view (Egyptian Exchange – Technical)

• EGX 30: Closed lower again, marking 8 consecutive sessions of declines.
• Volume / values: Trading activity was described as calmer and below average, interpreted as temporary pressure rather than a definitive “buy” signal.

Key EGX 30 levels

• Short-term support: 51,600
  • If broken: downward pressure may increase.
• Next downside target: 49,695 (if 51,600 fails)
• Rebound confirmation / buy-signal trigger: reclaim above 53,400

Pattern / structure

• Repeated sell-offs followed by rebounds, but prices not closing at highs.
• Potential falling wedge / early rebound setup, but:
  • The analyst stresses it’s not confirmed
  • Liquidity has not clearly returned

EGX 70 vs EGX 100

• EGX 30 appears relatively more resilient than EGX 70/100.
• This suggests relative weakness is concentrated in broader/smaller segments.

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Investor flows (who is buying / selling)

• Institutional vs individual ratio: about 20% institutions vs individuals (described as “usual”).
• Net buying by individuals: ~242 million EGP (higher than the prior day).
• Net selling from institutions: institutions remain net sellers.
  • The analyst highlights Egyptian institutions as the main source of selling, persisting for ~4+ sessions.

Implication: No clear market “turn” yet. A turning point would require institutions (or foreigners) stopping net selling, with buyers taking over.

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Sector takeaways (relative strength / weakness)

Sectors holding up / expected liquidity sources

• Banking (best performing; holding near support)
• Telecommunications (especially Telecom Egypt)
• Energy sector (mainly Emaar; otherwise weaker execution)

Worst performers

• Real estate (worst sector)
• Food sector (next worst)
• Also weak: services and industrial products

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Trading / investing framework & methodology (explicit)

• Don’t treat patterns/news alone as signals
  • Declines are framed as collective repricing; the trader should focus on price levels and confirmation.
• Confirmation rule (inverted hammer / similar candles)
  • A pattern is not enough—it needs follow-through (e.g., closing back above the pattern’s high / reclaiming resistance).

Liquidity principle

• “No market rises without liquidity.”
• Low daily turnover (about ~6–7 billion EGP cited) is viewed as good vs heavy-liquidity selloffs, but it’s not full reversal confirmation.

Time-horizon behavior

• Day/short traders: most hurt by volatility.
• Medium-term investors (3 months to <1 year): positioned to build gradually during sharp downturns.

Staged entries / risk management (“trade in parts”)

• Use tranches (example: reduce exposure by ~25% / 10–20% depending on risk tolerance).
• Emphasis: risk management matters more than technical analysis.
• Use stop-loss, and avoid insisting on perfect timing.

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Stock-specific recommendations, levels, and risk cautions

Banking / Sharia Index-related

1. Commercial International Bank (CIB)

   • Close: 128 EGP
   • Improve sentiment: break above 130.5 EGP
   • Critical support: 125 EGP (must hold)

2. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB)

   • Close: 50.17 EGP
   • Support described around 49
     • Note: report contains a contradictory “149 EGP” line, but the interpretation is consistently ~49–52.
   • New buy signal: break above 52 EGP
   • Upside targets if triggered: 54–55 EGP

3. Housing & Development Bank (HDB)

   • Close: 107 EGP (high 109.94)
   • Support: 105 EGP
   • Buy / positive improvement:
     • Breakout: 111.50 EGP
     • For short-term: wait for breakout above 115 EGP

4. Suez Canal Bank

   • Intraday: rose to 48 EGP, then fell back to 45 EGP
   • Minor profit-protection: 44 EGP
   • Main support: 41 EGP
     • As long as above 41, the analyst says “don’t even look at it”

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Healthcare

1. Ramida

   • Downtrend persists; broke key supports 5.70–5.75
   • New reversal needs: break above 6.00 or 6.50
   • Support mentioned: 4 EGP (downtrend could extend lower)

2. Sabq Pharmaceuticals

   • Close: 5.0 EGP
   • Seen as rebound only, not a new trend
   • Potential rebound target: 5.25 EGP
   • Stop-loss: 4.5 EGP (risk about 10% per analyst)
   • Recommendation tone: “exists but risk is high”; caution advised

3. GlaxoSmithKline (Glaxo)

   • Close: 268 EGP (high 275)
   • Support respected around 245
   • Rebound only; no new buy signal
   • Upside levels not to assume breaking: 290–300 EGP framed as a “completely different story” unless further confirmation

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Telecommunications

1. Telecom Egypt
   • Close: 134.74 EGP
   • Key support: 128 EGP
   • Targets:
     • 139–140 EGP (major)
     • Break > 140 could open 145–150 EGP
   • Framed as one of the few stocks maintaining an uptrend (short and very short term)

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Food / Milling

• Upper Egypt Mills and Alexandria Mills & Bakeries led gains (milling strongest in food).

1. Mansoura Poultry

   • Close: 2.39 EGP
   • Wait for real buy signal: reclaim 2.56 EGP
   • Targets if triggered: 2.70–2.75 EGP
   • No new buying until 2.56 is reclaimed

2. Alexandria Mills and Bakeries

   • Close: 147.05 EGP, high 153
   • Needs reclaim 161 EGP for stronger upside
   • If >161: target 180–185 EGP (very short-term initial gains)

3. Delta Sugar

   • Buy signal on reclaim 56 EGP
   • If confirmed: short-term position up to 60 EGP

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Metals / Resources / Fertilizers / Construction

• Egypt Aluminum

  • Support area: around 340 EGP (closed 342, high 349.98)
  • No new buying unless breaks 361 EGP
  • Targets: 375 EGP
  • Main support referenced: 390 EGP (as stated)
  • If it breaks below 340: possible declines toward 330–325 EGP, then 320–319 EGP

• Arab African Fertilizers (Abu Air Fertilizers)

  • Close: 88.60 EGP
  • Support: 84.80 EGP
  • Upside target: 96 EGP (assumes “positive news”)

• Mobco

  • Minor resistance: 46.90–47.0
  • Main very-short-term resistance: 48.10
  • Analyst view: Abur > Mobco currently, but Mobco could regain leadership if liquidity returns

• Arab Countries Metal Industries

  • Close: 11.87 EGP (near 11)
  • Support: 11.70 (holding)
  • No new re-entry unless returns above 13 EGP
  • Mentions needing a move back above 13.80 / 1380 (text ambiguous) for meaningful trend improvement

• Orascom Construction

  • Framed as technically exhausted toward a sideways range (“head of construction”)
  • Key levels:
    • Sideways band support: 670–700 EGP
    • Resistance: 878 EGP
  • Reduce position suggestion: reduce by half
  • Re-entry only if it resumes uptrend above 835 EGP
  • If selling for trading: trim around 800–805 EGP

• Heliopolis Housing

  • Critical support: 7 EGP
  • If breaks <7: shift to downtrend / more downside targets
  • If you own it: “hold unless breaks 7”
  • Sell/negative only if 7 breaks (risk-based stop discipline)

• Rascom for Development

  • Close: 38.80 EGP
  • Failed to reclaim > 40 EGP
  • Above/around 38: “small glimmer of hope” remains
  • If breaks below 38: further declines possible

• GBI

  • Weak trading values/volume (around 29 million EGP session value cited)
  • Buy improvement trigger: reclaim 75–76 EGP
    • Described as the same trade as yesterday; sideway band 75 → ~76

• Qalaa Financial / Qalaa

  • Close: 6.80 EGP
  • No new buying until break above 6.90 EGP
    • Report mentions confusion (“6.90 / 6.80 vs 6.99”), but buy threshold clearly ~6.90–7.0

• Citadel

  • Negative if breaks down below 60 EGP
  • Analyst cites “target high” around 72.5 EGP

• Arab Cotton Ginning

  • Close: 13.95 EGP
  • Minor resistance: 14.53 EGP
  • Target: 15.5 EGP
  • “Safe zone” referenced around 13 EGP / 1310 (technical caveats apply)

• Elsewedy Electric

  • Monitoring breakout above 118 EGP (yesterday’s plan)
  • Today: rose to 114 EGP, then fell back
  • Caution: trade in fractions
  • Risk if breaks 107 / 106–107, leading to further downside

• Sharm Dreams

  • Close: 4 EGP; correcting after a sharp rise
  • No new buying
  • Holding guidance is described with thresholds in the text (medium/long-term hold above 7.6 EGP; short-term very short-term around 8 EGP)

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Finance companies / non-banking financial services

• Beltone

  • Extremely oversold framing
  • Buy triggers:
    • Break above 3.00 EGP (or 3.80–3.90 mentioned as thresholds)
    • Or buy around 2.65–2.70
  • Staged buying: base/sub-base at 2.60 then 2.55 (possibly 2.50)
  • Targets: 3.00, then 3.10–3.20

• EFG Hermes

  • Close: 23.57 EGP
  • Lowest this year/last half-year around 22.80 EGP
  • Sideways accumulation buy zone; medium-term horizon (3 months to 1 year)
  • Targets: 25 EGP initial, 30 EGP primary

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Other stocks explicitly mentioned

• EIHC / Arabia Investment Holding

  • Reference: 68 piasters (~0.68 EGP)
  • Up about ~7%, but only a rebound
  • Not a buy until >72 piasters
  • Further improvement possibly needed above 75–76 piasters

• Talaat Moustafa, Emaar, Commercial International Bank, EFG Hermes, Beltone

  • Cited as examples of “leading stocks” whose declines drove sector performance more than isolated news.

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Key cautions / how the analyst frames risk

• The bearish move is attributed mainly to market-wide selling pressure, not isolated news.
• Buy signals require confirmation (reclaim resistance / close above highs).
  • Rebounds alone are not enough.
• High-risk short-term trades (example: Sabq) require ability to tolerate stops (e.g., 4.5 EGP for Sabq).
• For underperforming names (e.g., real estate), rebounds may be temporary until trend conditions change.

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Disclosures / disclaimer

• Prepared based on information believed accurate/reliable.
• Astoolah bears no legal responsibility for investment decisions made based on the report (buy/sell).

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Presenters / sources

• Mustafa Raafat — Head of Technical Analysis, Astoool Securities Trading and Bond Brokerage Company