Mark Minervini: Seine Strategie auf dem Prüfstand

Summary

The video examines Mark Minervini’s trend-following approach: buy stocks that are already strong and near new highs rather than trying to find cheap stocks. The presenter traces the idea through Jesse Livermore, Nicolas Darvas, William O’Neil, and Stan Weinstein, then tests a Minervini-inspired checklist using two trading bots.

The central lesson is that the strategy depends not just on its rules, but on following them consistently through losing trades and long periods of underperformance. In the presenter’s tests, most trades lost money, while a small number of large winners drove overall returns.

Strategy and Methodology

Trend filter (“Trend Template”)

The checklist requires stocks to meet all of the following criteria:

• Price is above the 50-, 150-, and 200-day moving averages.
• The moving averages are ordered upward, with the 50-day average above the 150-day average.
• The 200-day average has been rising for at least a month.
• Price is at least 30% above its yearly low and no more than 25% below its yearly high.
• The stock outperforms the market.
• Profits and revenue are growing.

The presenter says a stock is excluded if it fails any criterion.

Entries and Risk Management

Minervini’s Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) looks for price swings to narrow as selling pressure fades, followed by a breakout. The traditional entry is on the breakout, with a stop just below the pattern.

The presenter’s alternative is to use the checklist as a daily selection filter, but enter using 15-minute candles instead of waiting for a textbook VCP. The presenter says this can capture stocks that run before forming a clean pattern, while allowing tighter stops.

Risk-management principles emphasized in the video include setting the stop before buying, keeping losses small, and avoiding cutting winners too early. The presenter says tested trailing stops from 10% to 40% did not materially improve results, and that tight stops tended to cut off winners.

Backtest Setup

The presenter describes the test as starting in June 2022. It screens the 1,000 largest US stocks, selects the 10 strongest candidates weekly, and sells a stock if it no longer qualifies. The test starts with $100,000, allocates 10% per stock, and uses 15-minute prices and Interactive Brokers fees.

The GridBot variant enters in five increments of 1% each and moves the stop to breakeven once a trade is 10% in profit.

Performance Figures Cited

Minervini’s Reported Results

• Minervini’s reported worst year was +128%.
• He won the US stock-trading championship in 1997 and again in 2021, with a reported +334.8% in 2021.
• The video attributes the “worst year” figure to Jack Schwager’s book about successful traders.

Stock Bot

• The 10-stock test returned about +200%, compared with roughly +100% for the S&P 500 over the test period.
• Seven out of ten trades lost money. The presenter attributes the overall result to small losses and a few large winners.
• The largest winners named were Airbnb (the subtitle transcription is unclear), Palantir, and Micron.
• Removing those three best-performing stocks left approximately +120%, still above the market, but only narrowly.

Calendar-year results for the stock bot were:

• 2022: −13%
• 2023: Just under +4%, versus a market gain of over 20%
• 2024: Nearly a doubling

GridBot and Concentrated Versions

• The GridBot returned about +240% using the same stocks. Excluding the three best stocks left roughly +140%, which the presenter says remained above the market.
• A five-stock version returned over +300% for the stock bot and about +260% for the GridBot. However, the presenter reports a maximum drawdown near 40% and explicitly says they do not recommend this more concentrated version.

Removing the Profit-Growth Filter

The presenter says removing the profit-growth filter left overall returns nearly unchanged, but resulted in a −27% return in 2020. The presenter also says less than half the return remained after removing the three best trades. The video uses this to argue that earnings growth matters, not just price trend and relative strength.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• Stocks: Airbnb (subtitle transcription unclear), Palantir (PLTR), and Micron (MU)
• Benchmarks and investment references: S&P 500 and generic ETFs
• Trading instruments and tools: 50-, 150-, and 200-day moving averages; 15-minute candles; stop-loss and trailing-stop orders; the VCP pattern; an all-time-high screener; the presenter’s stock bot and GridBot

No bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrencies are discussed.

Cautions and Disclosures

• The presenter states that the video is not investment advice.
• The results are hypothetical backtests and do not guarantee future performance, despite the stated use of historical prices and Interactive Brokers fees.
• The presenter cautions that a roughly five-year test is not proof of long-term effectiveness. The available 15-minute data goes back only to 2021; the presenter says a longer database is being rebuilt to test the strategy over 20 years, including the financial crisis.
• The strategy may experience extended periods of weak performance: in 2023, it substantially lagged the market. Concentrating in fewer stocks can raise returns but also produced a reported drawdown of nearly 40%.

Presenters and Sources

• Presenter/source: Kaspareit-Trading; the presenter is not named in the subtitles.
• Traders and authors discussed: Jesse Livermore, Nicolas Darvas, William O’Neil, Stan Weinstein, and Mark Minervini.
• Book source cited: Jack Schwager’s book about leading traders.