Video summary
¿AO29 mejor que AN29? (2026) Gus Lucioni
Main summary
Key takeaways
Instruments / tickers mentioned
- AO29 (Bonar 2029): An Argentina sovereign bond with a monthly coupon (“pays every month”).
- AN29 (referenced as “N29”): Another Argentina sovereign bond with a lower yield, maturing in Nov 2029, and paying coupon twice a year.
- AO28 / O28: Mentioned as a bond with considerably less yield (structure/details not fully specified).
- AO27 / O27: Described as a safer option that matures before a potential government change; it pays every month and expires before the transition.
- “American” / “American monkey yields”: A humorous reference likely to U.S. yields as a comparison; no specific U.S. ticker/yield was provided.
Key ideas & recommendations/cautions
Cash-flow vs political/transition risk
The speaker compares the cash-flow attractiveness of AO29 (monthly coupon) against duration/electoral risk.
Primary risk: Argentina political transition / potential debt action
The main caution is that a political transition could lead to outcomes such as:
- A new government could delay coupon payments for years (a coupon suspension-like scenario).
- A restructuring/default risk, up to a “worst-case” described as “pariah state.”
- Election-year volatility could be high even if the final election outcome is “ideal.”
Implied comparison framework
The decision is framed as balancing:
- Higher monthly cash flow (e.g., AO29)
- vs lower political exposure (e.g., AO27, which matures before change)
- plus attention to coupon frequency and yield:
- AO29: monthly
- AN29: twice yearly but lower yield
Explicit cautions
- Not all investors should take the same risk—AO29 “may not be appropriate depending on investor profile.”
- Even if the “ruling party wins,” the instrument could still be “expensive,” implying limited upside / valuation risk.
“Market instruments are not all the same; they don’t all have the same risk profile.”
Key numbers and performance metrics stated (as described)
AO29 cash-flow example (simulation)
- “Still 95% parity” that it pays every month.
- “Six of TNA is a monthly 05” (monthly payout expression; conversion unclear due to subtitle noise).
- Example investment:
- Invest $100,000
- Purchase value described as dropping from 100,000 nominal to 94.94 (parity/discount mismatch explained as part of the example mechanics)
- Coupon cash flow: about $500 per month (stated as “more or less on average”)
- Final capital payment at maturity: 7.78 (context unclear in the subtitle)
Yield / return comparisons (approximate, as stated)
- AO29: “An 8 per year is insane … in Dollars” (approximate USD annual yield figure).
- AN29:
- Lower yield than AO29
- Pays only twice a year
- Expires in Nov 2029 (“November 29, 2029” referenced)
- AO28 / O28: AO29 shown as considerably better.
- Another example includes:
- “$100,000 for the AO29 and the 7.19% APR”
- Mentions “75% S” (unclear subtitle garbling)
- Concludes: “AO29 is still better … and it has more ‘tir’ too” (IRR implied; exact figures unclear)
- AO27 yield comparison:
- “O27 … does yield the same as Tresory, 4.28”
- Interpreted as roughly 4.28 yield (likely compared to a Treasury benchmark; exact instrument/ticker unclear beyond “Tresory”).
Timeline / event risk
- AO29: Election year occurs in the middle of the holding period, creating political transition risk before/midway/leading up to payment changes.
- AO27: Expires before the potential government change, positioned as the “safest logically” option.
Methodology / decision framework (step-by-step style)
- Compare bond alternatives by coupon frequency
- AO29: monthly
- AN29: twice yearly
- AO27: monthly
- Check maturity relative to election/government change
- If bond matures before transition → lower political risk (AO27)
- If bond matures after transition → higher political/debt-risk exposure (AO29)
- Evaluate:
- Cash-flow level (monthly payout attractiveness)
- Yield/IRR (speaker presents AO29 as strongest vs alternatives)
- Weigh valuation concerns: AO29 could be “expensive,” limiting upside even if outcomes are favorable.
- Apply a risk acceptance rule: decide whether you are willing to accept electoral/debt-payment risk.
Disclosures / disclaimers
- General caution that instruments differ in risk profiles:
- “Market instruments are not all the same; they don’t all have the same risk profile.”
- Advises finding a trusted advisor and matching investments to the investor’s risk profile.
- No explicit “not financial advice” phrase was present in the provided subtitles, but the risk-profile/consultation guidance functions as a practical disclaimer.
Presenters / sources (mentioned)
- Gus Lucioni (primary speaker)
- Mentions working with Nico Pola
- Mentions platform/listing: Balance
- Mentions advisor site: guslioni.com