The Polling Joke That Just Won’t Die

Core Argument

The video argues that the statistic Donald Trump shared—that 98% of self-identified MAGA Republicans approve of him—does not show that his broader support has held steady.

Harry Enten’s clip also notes that 99% of MAGA Republicans voted for Trump in 2024 and that 98% say they would vote Republican for the House. The host says these figures describe support within the group that still identifies as MAGA, not the size of that group or how support has changed among other voters.

Support Among Non-MAGA Voters

The host criticizes Trump for sharing statistics without broader context and says the clip circulating online omitted Enten’s discussion of non-MAGA voters. According to the figures cited:

• Non-MAGA Republicans went from favoring Trump over Kamala Harris by 56 points in 2024 to giving him a net approval rating of just +7 in September 2026—a 49-point shift.
• Trump’s net approval among voters under 30 changed from −7 in October 2024 to −47.
• Voters under 30 shifted from trusting Trump over Harris on the economy by 11 points to trusting him 62 points less.

Changes in the Republican Coalition

Drawing on research by Rich Baris, the host argues that the Republican coalition has changed. Some younger voters and Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters who had identified with MAGA or America First have since left those labels or the Republican Party. Meanwhile, older and white voters have become a larger share of those groups.

The host suggests that dissatisfaction with economic conditions, the Iran war, gas prices, and ICE’s actions may have contributed to these changes.

Conclusion

The video’s broader conclusion is that strong approval among people who still identify as MAGA can coexist with a shrinking or changing coalition, creating risks for Republicans in future elections.

Presenters and Contributors

• The Honest Poll host: Not named in the subtitles
• Harry Enten: Featured in the quoted segment
• Rich Baris: Polling analysis cited