Video Summary - Pharma's Next Big Opportunity? Expert Reveals The Winners In Biosimilars, GLP-1 And CDMO

Summary of the video (biosimilars, GLP-1, and CDMO outlook — ET Now)

US FDA approvals are described as a tailwind, but erratic and hard to predict, particularly for complex generics.
Companies may sometimes wait over a year without receiving the expected approvals.
Plain vanilla (“simpler”) generic approvals continue more consistently, helping companies defend base revenues against competition.
The larger complex approvals the industry is waiting for have not yet materialized, creating a cautious near-term outlook.

With domestic growth almost plateauing, pharma companies are seeking new growth engines.
The analyst highlights three major areas:
1. Nutraceuticals / consumer health
2. Biosimilars
3. Other innovation-led avenues such as specialty products and services
These businesses are expected to require a gestation period before materially contributing to profits, though companies are already investing and ramping up aggressiveness.

Biocon is positioned as an early mover and expected to have a strong next 2 years.
“Next ones to watch” for pipeline strength:
- Dr. Reddy’s
- Lupin
The analyst suggests biosimilars could scale substantially over a 4–5 year horizon, with potential biosimilar top-line contribution of roughly $0.5B to $1B (assuming successful execution).

Innovation is expected to be less immediate in profitability; it requires investment before returns show up in earnings.
Examples of innovation progress mentioned:
- Sun Pharma: built an innovation platform and created a large business
- Wockhardt: targeting a larger profit pool from an antibiotic molecule, aiming for commercialization in the US and other markets
- Zydus: on an innovation journey, planning to launch its first NCE in the US around FY25 year-end / early next year
CDMO is framed as another potential profit pool area, with preference for larger, better-positioned firms:
- Divi’s
- Laurus
- Neuland Laboratories (named as an emerging candidate)
- Piramal Pharma (also mentioned), though outcomes depend on how outsourcing demand shifts from China to India
Overall view: more clarity is needed on how much China-origin work transitions to India.

Current concerns include:
- many players (around 15)
- early oversupply, making growth feel sluggish at the start
Despite this, the analyst expects GLP-1 to become very large in India, driven over time by improved patient and physician experience.
He expects positive growth each month from the current base as adoption improves.
Market share concentration expectation:
- Top 5–6 players capturing approximately 80–90% of the market.

The discussion turns to whether Indian pharma’s domestic business is undervalued by the market, given strong domestic consumption trends.
Analyst’s pick for domestic outperformance and valuation attractiveness:
- Sun Pharma — described as the fastest-growing among leading domestic players, continuing to outperform peers despite already having a large base, and viewed as attractive from a valuation perspective.