VENDI PETR4 E COMPREI VALE3! VALE3 EM QUEDA LIVRE! DIVIDENDO E PREÇO TETO ATUALIZADO, OPORTUNIDADE?

Summary

The presenter says he fully exited his Petrobras position and began reallocating the proceeds into Vale, citing Petrobras’s sharp rise and Vale’s decline. His thesis is that both companies are cyclical and tend to move with the prices of their key commodities: oil for Petrobras and iron ore for Vale.

Portfolio moves

• Petrobras (PETR4): He says his original position was 504 shares, bought at an average of R$31.48. After selling gradually, he sold the final 101 shares for R$58.70 each on October 15. He reports a total return of about 59% and a profit of approximately R$9,300.
• Vale (VALE3): On October 15, he bought 10 shares at R$66.20 to open a position. He plans to invest the remaining cash gradually, contributing to Vale weekly rather than buying all at once.
• He describes this as part of a portfolio strategy that combines long-term holdings, dividend-paying companies, and international ETFs with a smaller allocation to cyclical commodity stocks.

Market and investment rationale

Oil and Petrobras

• He says Brent crude had risen roughly 76–80% during the year, reaching about US$105 per barrel, while Petrobras had gained about 98% since January 2.
• He views current oil prices as unusually high and potentially unsustainable, expecting oil eventually to move back toward US$60–80 per barrel. He cautions that nobody can predict when a decline might happen and acknowledges that political or management changes could also affect Petrobras.
• At the prices discussed, Petrobras was trading at about 1.55× book value; he cites book value per share of R$37.31. He says he prefers to be out after the rally, partly because a large fall in oil could lead to a Petrobras share-price correction.

Iron ore and Vale

• Vale was around R$66.42 in the discussion, down nearly 30% from February and below a recent level of about R$90.
• He puts iron ore at roughly US$90 per tonne, which he considers low. Vale was trading at about 1.5× book value.
• He presents Vale’s estimated dividend as R$6.20 per share, based on a 50% payout ratio, and gives a R$77 “price ceiling”—about 17% above the cited share price. He estimates a 9.3% projected dividend yield.
• For Petrobras, he cites a projected yield of 7.3% and a figure of 4.19% for what he describes as his own estimate; the relationship between those figures is not clarified in the subtitles.

Framework described

• Track the relevant commodity alongside the company’s share price: oil with Petrobras and iron ore with Vale.
• Consider buying cyclical companies when their underlying commodity is relatively cheap and selling when it is expensive.
• Build positions gradually rather than investing the full amount at once. The presenter says he previously accumulated Petrobras in repeated small purchases.
• Compare the share price with valuation measures such as price-to-book and a calculated “price ceiling,” and consider the resulting margin of safety.
• Treat commodity-linked holdings as a cyclical allocation alongside a broader portfolio, rather than as the entire portfolio.

Other figures and cautions

• He says he had R$5,297 in cash after the sale; the subtitle’s conversion to another currency is unclear.
• He claims his use of the promoted brokerage platform saved him more than 76 in fees or interest (currency or unit unclear), and says users of his referral code collectively saved more than US$884,000. These are presenter claims made in a brokerage promotion.
• He emphasizes that commodity prices and share prices can remain elevated or fall unpredictably, and says the timing of any correction is unknown.

Disclosure

The presenter says the discussion reflects his own portfolio and opinion and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The video also promotes his investing training and a brokerage platform.

Presenter and source

Felipe Eduardo, from the channel Felipe Eduardo – Engenheiro e Investidor.