Investiert bleiben – aber anders: Wo Stefan Schrader Chancen sieht

Summary

Stefan Schrader argues for remaining invested in equities over the long term, while avoiding a simple “all in or out” decision. He sees broad economic progress and problem-solving as long-term supports for company growth, but cautions that recent gains—especially in AI and technology—should not be assumed to continue at the same pace. He describes seven years or more as a typical horizon for looking through a business cycle.

His approach is to stay alert to valuations and concentration risk, and to consider rebalancing or diversifying rather than abandoning equities. He is cautious about capitalisation-weighted US exposure and suggests examining equal-weighted strategies, other regions, and emerging markets. He also advises against investing all available capital at once and suggests keeping some reserves.

Valuations and Market Risks

• Asian technology is described as valued about 45% below US technology.
• Schrader cites very low earnings multiples for SK Hynix—around 5, with a next-year figure of 3.5 also mentioned. At such multiples, the implied earnings yield would exceed 30%, but he cautions that investors may expect current semiconductor profits to be unusually high and temporary.
• Samsung and Micron are also discussed as semiconductor comparisons; Micron’s P/E is described as still in the double digits. Nvidia is described as having a very high valuation.
• For the overall US market, the conventional P/E is put at around 20, while the Shiller P/E—based on inflation-adjusted average earnings over the previous ten years—is around 40. Schrader says this reflects more ambitious valuations and an implied earnings yield of about 2.5%, compared with more than 5% available on longer-term bonds.
• He says approximately half of the US stock market is already in a bear market, defined here as a decline of more than 20%.
• Schrader notes that Nvidia is forecast to earn more than $300 billion next year. He uses this as an example of why investors should be wary of extrapolating exceptionally strong earnings.
• The Bank of England and other central banks have warned about high valuations and reliance on a small number of AI companies. Schrader says such warnings should sharpen investors’ attention, not automatically trigger an exit.

Index Concentration and Regional Opportunities

• The MSCI World is said to have about 72% invested in US stocks, with a record concentration in technology. Schrader says roughly 40% is associated with AI stocks.
• TSMC is cited as producing more than 90% of future-oriented, innovative chips. Schrader describes its near-monopoly position as a source of significant risk, despite the strategic importance of its products and Taiwan.
• In 18 of 25 emerging markets, company earnings are said to be growing by more than 10%; Schrader notes that China is not among them.
• He describes China as having a very different backdrop from booming markets: long-term interest rates and government-bond yields are at record lows, while stimulus measures and subsidised property loans are supporting the economy and real-estate market.

Historical Pattern and Investment Framework

Historical data cited by Schrader show that the nine-month period spanning the three months before and two quarters after US midterm elections was profitable in 19 out of 20 cases, and was the strongest nine-month period in a presidential term. He treats this as a statistical observation, not a dependable short-term forecast.

His practical framework is to:

• Keep a long-term equity horizon and expect corrections within business cycles.
• Avoid assuming the exceptional performance of the past 17 years, or the AI- and technology-led gains of the past three to four years, will repeat at the same rate.
• Review valuations, earnings quality, and portfolio concentration.
• Consider reducing reliance on capitalisation-weighted US indexes, including the S&P 500, and assess equal-weighted or active approaches.
• Consider diversifying into regions and markets with different valuations and growth prospects, including parts of Asia and emerging markets.
• Keep some capital in reserve rather than committing everything at once.

Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

• Stocks and equity indexes: S&P 500, MSCI World; equal-weighted index strategies and ETFs.
• Companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Nvidia, TSMC.
• Sectors and regions: AI, technology, semiconductors, Asia, the US, emerging markets, and China.
• Fixed income: Longer-term bonds and Chinese government bonds.
• Tickers: No stock tickers are stated in the subtitles.

Disclosures

The closing disclaimer says that investments involve risks and that the content is not investment advice, but is provided solely for product information.

Presenters and Sources

• Martin Kerscher — interviewer and host.
• Stefan Schrader — portfolio manager and capital-market expert.
• Central-bank warning cited: Bank of England.