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КАК УСПЕХИ В ПРИНУЖДЕНИИ РОССИИ К МИРУ ?

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News and Commentary

Core Argument: “Coercion Into Peace” Has Failed

The speaker argues that “coercion of Russia into peace” (described as a 40-day push for peace/truce) has failed and instead enabled further escalation.

They claim the conflict is fundamentally existential for both Russia and Ukraine, so it can only end in one of two broad ways:

  • Russia achieves geopolitical defeat of Ukraine (or broader Russian victory)
  • Or Ukraine is divided, with a protectorate-style arrangement for parts of Russia’s western territories

Short truces, in their view, are impractical and unenforceable across a vast front.

Timeline Predictions and Critique of “Peace” Efforts

The speaker claims they previously predicted the war would last years, evolving from:

  • An early phase as a “meat grinder”
  • Later as a positional war, with potential Minsk-like arrangements

They also mock the notion that external “chatterboxes” and propaganda create a false sense that the war will end soon, including:

  • Ukrainian media fundraising and telethons
  • Commentators who, they argue, shape unrealistic expectations

Ukraine’s Military Situation and Escalation Cycle

The speaker argues that if Ukraine attacks Russian targets (including symbolic or strategic infrastructure), Russia responds with intensified measures, not reduced escalation.

They describe Ukraine as lacking effective defenses against Russian ballistic missiles, including:

  • Insufficient air defense, including claims that:
    • Patriot missiles are running out
    • Patriots cannot protect at scale
  • A belief that Europe and partners will not reallocate Patriots from their own deployments to cover Ukraine fully
  • Limited effectiveness of Ukraine’s missile defense in practice:
    • Effective interception is described as relying mainly on anti-drone systems
    • Those systems do not address ballistic missiles effectively

“40 Days of Peace” and Why It Benefits Russia

The speaker claims the “forced peace” period coincided with increased attacks on Ukraine, including:

  • Energy infrastructure targeting
  • Attacks on gas stations
  • Continued strikes on ports and logistics

They argue the front has become largely static, producing a war centered on:

  • Missiles
  • Drones
  • Bombing
  • Less on large territorial maneuver

They further contend that Russia’s missile production has increased, citing figures they attribute to “foreign intelligence agencies,” implying Russia can sustain frequent missile pressure over time.

Russia’s Maritime Blockade and Refusal of Sea Truce

The speaker says Russia blocked Black Sea shipping during the “40 days,” including:

  • Sinking ships tied to grain shipments and trade

They portray a “truce at sea” as largely irrelevant to Russia, even if it harms Ukraine economically or contributes to hunger elsewhere.

Economic/Financial Claims and Dismissal of Collapse Scenarios

The speaker argues that attempts to pressure Russia by targeting major companies or warehouses (including entities linked to banks and commerce) will not destabilize the Russian state, because:

  • Even if firms or financial institutions are struck, the state can seize/sanitize them

They also dismiss claims that business elites or “Chinese traders” will drive political collapse after losses.

Critique of U.S. “Security Guarantees”

The speaker argues that U.S. guarantees—and American support more broadly—are unreliable, pointing to what they describe as cycles of escalation and negotiation (e.g., with Iran) that, in their view, repeatedly return to bombing and renewed demands.

They conclude that “security guarantees” would not prevent Russia from advancing after any settlement, making a durable truce impossible.

What Ordinary People “Should Do” (Their Prescriptions)

The speaker recommends pragmatic preparation for long-term hardship.

For Ukrainians

  • They argue Ukrainians should have left earlier (claiming they advised this), warning that:
    • Winters and continuing infrastructure destruction will worsen living conditions
  • They claim Russia’s energy-targeting missile campaign will lead to systemic power/heat failures, making Ukrainian cities increasingly uninhabitable over time

For Russians

  • They argue the best approach is to prepare alternatives abroad, referencing:
    • Backup airfields
    • Continuity plans
  • They emphasize evacuation/resettlement planning over expecting quick political change

Presenters/Contributors

  • No other specific presenters are named in the provided subtitles.
  • The commentary appears to be delivered solely by the main speaker/author of the referenced videos.

Original video