PORTFOLIO UPDATE 🚀 What I am Buying, Holding & Selling THIS WEEK! (June 22, 2026)

Core strategy / methodology

• Time horizon: Swing trades typically over 1 to 6 months (sometimes 7–12 months).
• Entry rule: Buy when the weekly “blue wave” is down and a green dot appears (described as buying during fear/despair).
• Sell rule: Sell when the weekly wave rises into the “red zone” or when a red dot appears (often on daily before the weekly signal).
• Trend reference: Avoid buying when price is above the mean / moving average. Prefer entries at or below the 4-year moving average (“blue line/mean”).
• Averaging down rule: Add only if the decline is meaningful—specifically, average down when the drop is 20% or more.
• Risk sizing rule: Cap each position at ≤ 2.5% of the total portfolio per trade to limit total drawdown.
  • Example: a 50% drop on a 2.5% position ≈ 1.25% loss of the total portfolio.
• Earnings & event caution: Earnings can create sharp short-term volatility; if uncertain, consider trimming before/around earnings.
• Stop-loss practice (when red dot appears): Place stops around the previous low (sometimes slightly below; e.g., May low ~12 cents → stop ~11–12 cents).

Emphasis throughout: trade the framework rather than following sentiment—especially in “despair” regimes.

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Major market / sector framing

• Crypto context: Described as beat-up / bearish for ~10 months, with “despair phase” behavior.
• Valuation anchoring: Repeated references to trading at discounts to multi-year averages, especially the 4-year average.

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Portfolio actions & key trade calls (tickers + levels)

SMCI (Super Micro Computer)

• Entry / re-entry logic:
  • Signal around ~$20 (April) → run to ~$52
  • Profits taken near ~$50 (June)
  • Pullback to ~$27
  • Re-entered near ~ $30 after support repeatedly held around ~$30 (also referenced as support bounces in 2023–2025)
• Risk/targets: Sell near the “red zone” / EMA ribbon extension; currently holding expecting a move toward the red zone.
• Catalyst mentioned: Alleged co-founder/co-CEO issue involving smuggling chips to Nvidia to avoid tariffs, implied to contribute to the dip.

Aerodrome (crypto; ticker not explicitly specified)

• Position: Entered near ~$0.37; later around ~$0.55
• Framework / target: Weekly red zone target; speaker estimates ~116% upside remaining to that zone.
• Risk management: Hold while the weekly dot remains green; stops considered after red dot.

Eigen / EIGN (Ethereum play referenced as “Eigen”)

• Signal / entry: “dot is green,” referenced around ~$0.20
• Plan: Holding while waiting for the red dot.

NVO (Novo Nordisk)

• Earnings mention:
  • Signals around ~$45 (Nov/Aug context)
  • Earnings caused a drop from ~$45 to ~$34
  • Speaker did not panic sell and averaged in
  • Now around ~$45 (break-even cited)
• Target: Expecting $70–$80.

SUI / “Sooie” (speaker discusses SUI in cents)

• Holding: Around ~$0.70
• Support band: Buying zone described as $0.60–$0.80 (2024 range)
• Recommendation: Wait for a green dot; don’t expect an exact bottom.
• Risk note: Buffett quote referenced: be prepared for a 50% drop.

CEDUS (on SUI network; referenced as “DEEX on the Sooie network”)

• Context: Previously around ~$0.50 (2024); now < $0.02
• Example target: If it returns to ~$0.12, that would imply ~600%.
• Next step: Wait for a green dot before adding.

KEA (crypto)

• Current status: “red this week”
• Stop-loss guidance: Stop near previous low ~12 cents (or ~11 cents).
• Management: Speaker is holding, expecting possible chop/bounce.

H&T (DPIN project; “mining/proof-of-work”)

• Positioning: Waiting for a green dot; long-term interest.
• Partnership claim: Mentioned T-Mobile and AT&T.

Adam / ATOM (Cosmos)

• Staking: Speaker cites ~19% staking APY on Coinbase and says all ATOM is staked.
• Sell rule: Only when a red dot appears / wave returns to the red zone (sell-zone reference cited around $3.60–$4).

Chainlink (LINK)

• Signal: Green dot previously around ~$8.50; now down about ~60% (described as consolidation).
• Valuation framework: 4-year moving average (“blue line”) at ~$13, framed as buying at about a 40% discount.
• Target: Long-term aspiration $80–$100 (not near-term).

Ethereum exposure (ETH) + “Etha” / ETH ETF proxy

• ETH position: Around ~$1,700; bought around ~$1,900 (down ~11%).
• Belief: ETH could reach $5,000–$10,000.
• ETF proxy (“Etha” / Grayscale referenced indirectly):
  • Treated as an ETH ETF signal confirmation for “green dot likely soon.”
  • Historical references:
    • Strong buy spot at ~$1,500 during past cycles (tariff period)
    • “Bouncing” at a historically similar level from 2023–2025–2026
• Caution: Don’t be unable to tolerate 11%+ dips given crypto volatility.

Uniswap (UNI)

• Added last week: Referenced peak ~3.5 cents, pulled back to ~3.0 cents
• Average cost: Around ~3.05
• Thesis: Lowest price since 2020, framed as “crypto COVID lows.”
• Sell rule: Wait for weekly red zone / red dot.

“Trumpcoin” (memecoin)

• Small exposure: Bought at $2, down about $0.10
• Action: Wait for wave recovery / green-to-red transition.

XRP

• Position: Bought around ~$1.30 (March); down about ~$0.20
• Action: Wait for a green dot to add.

STLA (Stellantis)

• Entry/valuation: Bought around ~$7, now around ~$6
• Support: Cites “2020 low” and “2016 low” as key historical support.
• Risk: “If breaks below like $6, I’ll probably sell.”
• Fundamental claim: Revenue cited as $44B per quarter.

PLTR (Palantir) – chart request / warning

• Description: Broke support; red dot in June around ~$120–$130
• Bias: Speaker frames it as avoid / very bearish (mentions bearish MACD crossover).
• Recommendation: Wait for monthly timeframe signals rather than weekly trading.

PayPal (PYPL)

• Signal: “Green dot this week”
• Holding condition: Wants price holding above ~$40 (mentions “above 39”).

Additional chart-request tickers: stops/entries referenced during live requests

• SOFI: Target $50–$70; prior buy signal around ~$25 (June); entry in March around ~$14
• SOXS (3x bearish semiconductor ETF):
  • Bought ~$5, now ~$3.30
  • Medium-term pullback thesis; references Intel valuations and puts on Intel
• ACN (Accenture):
  • Earnings caused ~25% selloff
  • Bought ~$165; add only after another green dot
  • Mentions ~50% discount vs 4-year average; earnings event risk emphasized (July referenced for a different ticker’s earnings; for ACN, event risk emphasized generally)
• GOOD RX (GDRX): red dot; stop near ~$240
• Lucid (LCID): holding green; “nothing to worry”
• DJT: green this week; last bought around ~$8
• CRM (Salesforce): stopped out around ~$160
• TEAM (Atlassian): red dot; stop around ~$75 (or ~$77)
• AVB: red dot; stop around ~$175
• LEU: green; wants buyer near signal around ~$170
• ISRG: waiting for signal; notes earnings in July (~3 weeks away)
• TSCO (Tractor Supply): if trading, stop around $28
• XCN: stop at previous low ~9
• BABA (Alibaba):
  • Entered ~109 last week; down ~$5
  • Plans to average down on next green dot
  • Compares to April signal at ~120; current ~104 (~13% discount vs 4-year avg ~$121)
• Axel / AXL (unclear exact ticker; possibly AXAL/AXL-related):
  • Monthly alert buy signal around ~$4.5
  • Speculative partnership claims; price referenced from ~$3 to ~4 cents
• Robinhood (HOOD):
  • March signal at 70; now up ~57% off signal
  • Target red zone 130–150
• “A firm” (unclear ticker; possibly AAL):
  • Cites still green around March at ~44, now 72
  • Wants the red zone break
• UPS: green; target $72–$80
  • Stop suggested around $28 or using lows after red dot
• INTU (Intuit):
  • PE ~16, dividend ~2%
  • Signal in March around ~$3.80; now ~$2.50–$2.75
  • Claims “6-year lows” and discusses potential averaging down due to big discount
• QQQM: mentioned as an example (“where should you have bought this”); discounts/prior levels referenced around ~$270 and ~$230

Intel (INTC) – used for bearish thesis

• Claim: “~70% off 4-year average,” described as extended.
• View: Chips could snap back toward moving averages (around 50–60).
• Tools referenced: SOXS and puts on Intel (puts still have time).

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Explicit recommendations / cautions

• Don’t rush: 90–95% of the process is waiting for signals.
• Avoid entries at “exciting” highs: don’t buy when price is extended above the mean/4-year average (uses a Costco “discount” analogy).
• Tie stop-losses to structure: typically to previous lows when red dot appears (examples include KEA near 12 cents, TEAM near 75, etc.).
• Crypto is volatile: don’t be forced to sell during dips; the speaker notes ETH being down ~11% and argues it should be survivable.
• Position sizing discipline: ≤2.5% per trade.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” sentence is shown in the provided subtitles.
• The speaker frames statements as opinions, urges using judgment/data, and emphasizes that no strategy is 100%.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter/host: “Overkill Trading” (no personal name stated in subtitles).
• Referenced investors: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger.
• Platforms/venues: Coinbase, Grayscale Ethereum ETF proxy (indirectly referenced), Binance (for some crypto mentions).
• Companies mentioned in passing: Nvidia, SpaceX, Amazon, Costco, T-Mobile, AT&T.