Emmanuel TODD : « Il faut arrêter de MENTIR sur POUTINE et la GUERRE »

Overview

Emmanuel Todd, interviewed about his new book La dislocation (Gallimard), argues that the “dislocation” of Western societies is driven less by a straightforward return to religion or religious decline than by a deeper breakdown of the moral and collective foundation that once held societies together.

He revisits and expands his religious-stage framework—active religion, “zombie” religion, then “stage zero”—to explain contemporary cultural, political, and geopolitical instability.

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1) Religion’s decline as a key driver of social disintegration

• Todd argues that Western modernity is marked by dechristianization progressing toward “stage zero”, where the “ancient religious values” that structured collective life disappear.
• He clarifies that major papal events (crowds at Champs-Élysées/Lourdes) do not necessarily represent a true religious revival. Instead, they are often media- and spectacle-driven phenomena that can occur even when society no longer accepts traditional Catholic moral authority.
• Even within his model, such activity can fit: zombie religion can produce rituals and crowds without restoring religion’s full social authority.

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2) Why nihilism persists even when belief seems to vanish

• Todd contends that during “zombie religion,” societies can still be socially structured through civil religions—systems like socialism, communism, or nationalism that function like religion without being religious.
• At stage zero, however, the collective ability to act—guided by shared inherited moral values—collapses, producing the “dislocation” he describes.

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3) A second pessimistic engine: demographic aging and “democratic gerontocracy”

• Another root cause of pessimism is population aging, which redirects resources to pensions and healthcare and causes democracies to be influenced heavily by older voters.
• Todd argues that France is particularly affected—“the most gerontocratic country in Europe”—and links this to a failure to plan for the future.
• He introduces the idea of “the new old”: older people whose relationship to risk and future generations differs radically. He illustrates this with a story from the Fukushima region, where elderly residents reportedly felt indifferent to radiation risk.

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4) Failure of imagination: a historical mechanism for catastrophe

• Todd suggests that catastrophes such as the Holocaust/Nazism became possible, in part, because the surrounding society could not imagine such outcomes occurring in an advanced country.
• Applying this to the present, he argues that the West—especially via media commentary—may similarly fail to imagine the scale of political danger. He points to Trump’s volatility and to the inability of institutions/media to fully grasp consequences.
• For him, the core risk is not only lies or propaganda, but a broader loss of imaginative capacity—a failure to project worst-case scenarios.

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5) Geopolitics: Russia as “calm,” Western escalation as the real problem

• Todd disputes the dominant framing that Russia inherently threatens Europe.
• He argues that anti-Russian provocations by Western leadership help explain why “peace persists,” claiming Russians behave more rationally and defensively than Western rhetoric suggests.
• He warns that elites may benefit politically from continued conflict—hoping it lasts so they are not held accountable for encouraging Ukrainian sacrifice.
• If the war extends into Europe through European troop deployments, he suggests the conflict could quickly become a short but devastating confrontation.
• He also argues that Germany—linked to NATO/US alignment—is moving toward a more nihilistic posture, potentially increasing nuclear risk, while Russia would avoid unnecessary escalation.

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6) France’s internal political shift: “great replacement” vs “great slowdown” and deindustrialization

• Todd emphasizes a domestic sociological thesis: France is undergoing a “slowdown” tied to aging and the loss of productive capacity.
• He argues that the working-class base has shifted politically (toward RN and LFI in cities), and that this is not explained only by immigration (“great replacement”). Instead, deindustrialization changes what “the people” are and how they relate to production.
• He describes a working class whose living standards are supported by globalized supply chains (cheaper production abroad). He provocatively suggests that workers can become “exploiters” economically—while still remaining dominated in France.

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7) Where his “optimism” sits: “inclusive sovereignty”

• Despite being largely pessimistic about structural decline, Todd ends with a limited optimism centered on “inclusive sovereignty.”
• He proposes a model of national sovereignty that would integrate Muslim descendants as French citizens.
• He acknowledges that slower assimilation may make this harder, but he argues it remains the only viable way out of the crisis without letting TV discourse be dominated by narratives of religious or ethnic hatred.
• He further argues that if living standards and security genuinely worsen, people may fall back on practical solidarity and national cohesion.

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8) Technology and future risk: AI as an accelerant, not a cure

• Todd says AI is not central to his book, but he believes its future effects should be incorporated into historical and economic analysis.
• He anticipates that AI could accelerate disorganization, especially in already atomized societies like the US.
• He also suggests authoritarian settings may not necessarily prevent disruptive outcomes.

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Presenters / Contributors

• Emmanuel Todd — author (guest)
• Jean-Marie Di la Grange — mentioned as the journalist involved in a discussion (not speaking by name as the visible interviewer)
• Interviewer / host (unidentified) — the questioner throughout the video
• Olivier Tod — mentioned as Emmanuel Todd’s father (deceased journalist)