How to Time Expansions | Part 2; Continuations

Summary

The presenter explains a technical-trading framework for identifying continuations after a higher-timeframe reversal. The central idea is to let a confirmed reversal establish the directional context, then look for lower-timeframe swings, gaps, and inter-asset divergence that may offer continuation entries toward a liquidity target.

The terminology and probability claims reflect the presenter’s framework; they are not independently verified performance results.

Core Framework

• Start with a confirmed higher-timeframe reversal. The presenter uses correlated-asset divergence (“SMT” or “Kraken correlation”), a precision swing point (PSP), and a sharp, V-shaped change in price delivery to qualify a reversal at a key level.
• Treat continuation entries as a “model within a model.” After the higher-timeframe reversal, look for a lower-timeframe pattern that moves price from internal to external range liquidity (IRL to ERL), or between relevant range levels, toward the larger target.
• Look for a fair-value gap (FVG) or other imbalance as a continuation level. The preferred setup continues away from the confirmed reversal, with price pulling back or consolidating into a gap before a lower-timeframe swing confirmation.
• Consider two continuation structures:
  1. Type 1 — IRL to ERL: Price pulls back into a gap, often in the upper half of candle 2, then resumes toward the higher-timeframe target. The presenter describes this as the most likely sequence.
  2. Type 2 — Continuation from a formed swing: After expansion and consolidation or a pullback, a relevant swing forms. If price does not continue away from that swing, the level may act as a reversal point for a lower-timeframe move toward the larger target.
• Qualify the continuation swing with correlation signals. A one-stage SMT or PSP-related signal in the gap may be sufficient; a two-stage signal can also occur. Unlike the presenter’s reversal framework, continuation does not always require a two-stage correlation signal because the higher-timeframe reversal is already established.
• For a lagging correlated asset, look for the “ideal sequence”:
  1. A leading asset changes strength or fails to reverse at a key level, often creating a gap.
  2. The lagging asset forms an SMT within that gap and moves toward the same key level.

The presenter describes this as a PSP strength change followed by an SMT fill—an indication, within this framework, that the lagging asset may catch up.

Filters, Risk Management, and Cautions

• Candle balance: After a reversal candle (C2), the continuation candle (C3) should generally respect the relevant half of C2. A deep pullback through that balance weakens the C3 continuation setup. The presenter suggests waiting for C4 to hold the range and confirm expansion instead.
• Avoid forcing trades through relevant swings or key levels. A swing near the target area may mark a new price phase. The presenter advises waiting for that phase to develop rather than blindly trading through the level.
• Avoid weak or consolidating setups. Look for displacement and a clear change in delivery. If price action is choppy or the expected correlation signal is absent, the presenter often stands aside and waits for another setup.
• Use premium and discount as location filters. The presenter uses the 50% equilibrium (EQ) of both the current candle’s range and the higher-timeframe operating range. Entries in discount are preferred. In higher-timeframe premium, he recommends requiring a more convincing swing—such as a gap in the discount portion of the current candle—rather than buying near its high.
• Apply the advanced premium/discount filter: Gaps near the operating range’s EQ may support an SMT even when the lagging asset makes a deeper swing. The presenter is less inclined to trust an SMT formed much lower in the range without a supporting gap.
• Consider risk/reward: In chart examples, the presenter says to require at least 2R before taking a trade. He also notes that losses are normal. No win rate, audited results, or other performance statistics are provided.

Assets and Timeframes Mentioned

• Equity indices and index futures: S&P 500 / ES, Nasdaq / NASDAQ, and Dow / YM. The examples discuss these as correlated markets.
• Other correlated assets: Gold and silver; crude oil, heating oil, and RBOB gasoline. No specific tickers are given for these.
• Timeframes and session references: Daily, weekly, 4-hour, 1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute, 5-minute, 3-minute, and 90-minute charts. Examples refer to 2:00 a.m. (London), 6:00 a.m., 9:30 a.m. (market open), 10:00 and 10:30 a.m., and 12:30 p.m. These are chart examples, not economic forecasts.
• No specific prices, yields, valuation multiples, or macroeconomic data are discussed.

Disclosures

No explicit spoken “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The video presents a discretionary technical-trading method and does not provide independently substantiated performance figures.

Presenter and Sources

Presenter: Afyz, identified by the video’s channel metadata.

Sources referenced: The presenter’s previous reversal lesson, AM Trades (for relevant swings), Garrett GXT (for a universal continuation sequence), and the presenter’s Twitter chart recap.