the market is cooked [what I'm buying anyway]

Market Backdrop and Trading Setup

• The presenter described the reporting season as unusually weak for large technology companies, particularly Alphabet/Google and Amazon, which he said missed both earnings and revenue expectations.
• He warned that the Nasdaq could face another pullback. He claimed the index had not previously experienced three 10% corrections in one year without entering a bear market.
• Ahead of an FOMC meeting, he bought QQQ and SPY put options, expecting one of two prior FOMC-day lows to be tested. He said the puts had risen significantly by the following market close.
• His broader point was that companies with negative free cash flow (FCF) may struggle to win market favor, even when investing for future growth. He contrasted them with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple, which he said had positive FCF year to date.

Earnings-Review Framework

The presenter’s self-described earnings scoring system considers:

• Forward outlook
• Overall performance
• Margins
• Cash flow
• Key sector-specific indicators

He noted that these factors receive different weights depending on the company.

Company Assessments and Stated Views

Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)

Assessment: C+

Search queries reportedly grew 12%, but search revenue fell. YouTube advertising, subscriptions, and platform/device revenue also declined. Network revenue and Google Cloud were the areas that beat expectations. FCF was about –$9B, versus –$5B the prior quarter. The cloud order book was cited at $561B, and capex is expected to keep rising substantially through 2027.

The presenter cited a 14 P/E, a share price around $278, and a possible test of the $270 March low.

Presenter’s view: Hold, with no planned addition until the broader correction settles. He considered the valuation attractive but said momentum was unfavorable.

Meta (META)

Assessment: C+

Revenue growth was 26%, while expenses rose 68%. FCF turned negative, reportedly for the first time since 2012. Legal costs of $9.9B weighed on results. Operating margin was 35% including those costs, compared with 40% cited as the comparison.

Presenter’s view: He would consider adding to his roughly 3% portfolio position, but personally preferred to wait for volatility to ease and for the September 16 FOMC low to be cleared.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Assessment: A−

Azure growth was 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose 73% year over year to $677B. Net profit and EPS were up 18%. Capex exceeded expectations, but the company continued to generate positive FCF. The presenter cited a 27 P/E and a roughly 6% portfolio weight.

Presenter’s view: He described the business as strong and said to buy on dips, but not to add immediately.

Vertiv (VRT)

Vertiv provides exposure to AI power infrastructure. Its revenue outlook was raised to $14.45B–$14.85B; operating margin expanded 290 basis points; and organic orders more than doubled year over year. The presenter cited a 26 forward P/E, a 0.441 PEG, and a share price still 35% below its highs. He said he had added below $200 on October 20.

Presenter’s view: One of his strongest reports. He would add, buy dips, and add even if the stock rose.

ServiceNow (NOW)

Assessment: C, or possibly B− on operating performance

The stock reportedly fell 27% in one day. Revenue was in line, EPS missed by $0.02, and gross margin was 80% versus 83% expected. Obligations growth was 18.5% versus 19.8% expected. The presenter cited a valuation around 78–80 P/E.

He described a roughly 1.9% portfolio position, with a cost basis of $96, and an after-hours price around $108 after trading near $160.

Presenter’s view: He viewed the decline as excessive but planned to hold, not increase. He cautioned against making a high-beta stock a large core holding; his portfolio beta was about 1.1.

Fortinet (FTNT)

Fortinet reported solid results: revenue and EPS beat expectations, and annual revenue, billings, and EPS guidance were raised, although service-revenue guidance was slightly lowered. Operating margin rose 130 basis points, and FCF increased 52%. The presenter cited a 36 forward / 44 current P/E, 31% ROIC, and a 21% 10-year CAGR. The stock recovered nearly 8% intraday.

Presenter’s view: He considered the selloff excessive and called it an attractive cybersecurity entry. He also mentioned Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) as sector peers.

Salesforce (CRM)

Assessment: B

Guidance and key metrics improved, and FCF rose 81% in a seasonally weak quarter. RPO increased 14% to $33.5B. The presenter noted that EPS benefited somewhat from investment income and share buybacks, while operating margin was broadly in line with expectations. The stock rose 23% the next day, though it gave back some gains.

Presenter’s view: He considered Salesforce a potential SaaS holding and a possible alternative to ServiceNow.

Amazon (AMZN)

The presenter said Q4 revenue and operating-profit guidance was below expectations. AWS revenue was $46B, up 39% year over year. FCF was negative. Shares were around $226 after hours, near June/July lows.

Presenter’s view: He viewed that price area as attractive for a 5–10-year horizon and said he would consider adding if he did not already own Amazon, while noting that negative FCF can weigh on valuation.

Intel (INTC)

Results beat on profit and revenue, but the outlook was weak as the PC market slowed. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.32B. Adjusted FCF was $1.64B versus $0.9B, and operating cash flow reportedly doubled. The presenter cited a 41 forward P/E, an after-hours price around $71, and a historical level near $69. He described the stock as about 50% below its highs.

Assessment: C, due to the weak outlook.

Presenter’s view: The investment thesis is Intel becoming a Western foundry competitor to TSMC. He would consider it only if investors believe in that long-term strategy.

SanDisk (SNDK)

Assessment: A+

The presenter cited a $5B share buyback, gross margin of 85.1% versus 29.9% a year earlier, FCF of $6.3B versus $0.4B, and data-center revenue growth of 61% quarter over quarter. The transcript gives guidance figures of $12.2B–$12.6B revenue and $55–$57 EPS; these unusually large figures may reflect subtitle errors.

Presenter’s view: He would add on a significant pullback, particularly if the share price fell below the July low. He cautioned that SanDisk is a high-beta holding and should be small in a core portfolio, if included there at all.

Portfolio and Risk Points

• The presenter favored buying on dips in selected companies rather than adding broadly during market weakness.
• He distinguished between a core portfolio and a more aggressive AI/high-beta portfolio. He said names such as ServiceNow and SanDisk would be more appropriate at smaller weights or in the higher-risk portfolio.
• He repeatedly cautioned that strong long-term prospects do not prevent near-term pressure, especially for companies with negative FCF, high valuations, or weak guidance.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The views and ratings above are the presenter’s stated opinions, not independent recommendations.

Presenter and Sources Mentioned

The Traveling Trader (presenter/channel); Alpha Scope (financial data and analysis platform discussed); the presenter’s posts on X; company earnings reports; and analyst expectations.