"Forget Everything I Said About Silver—November 2026 Changes The ENTIRE Picture" | Michael Oliver

Summary

Michael Oliver argues that gold and silver miners may be signaling a larger shift into precious metals, even though physical gold and silver have not yet matched the miners’ strength. He says the August 5 buy signal marked a different rally from the two earlier rallies since January, based on technical factors and momentum. In his view, miners’ relative outperformance may reflect new investment entering the sector and could precede a stronger move in the metals themselves.

Investment Approach and Framework

• Watch relative performance, not just metal prices. Oliver says investors should focus on where large investments are going first. Miners reaching prior highs while gold and silver remain below theirs could mean miners are anticipating a move in physical metals—or are becoming overextended.
• Measure miners against gold. Oliver uses the XAU Index divided by the price of gold per ounce to measure miners’ relative valuation.
  • He says the ratio generally ranged from 18% to 35% from the 1980s through 2008, with the mid-20% range typical.
  • It fell to about 4% in December 2015, then remained in a low range of roughly 5%–8.5%.
  • Oliver says it broke above that base in August and is now a little above 9%. He sees 18% as the next historical reference level, with no major resistance between current levels and that threshold.
  • He interprets the breakout as a signal that mining shares could outperform gold. A doubling of the ratio would mean miners double relative to gold; it would not necessarily mean miners’ share prices simply double.
• Prefer established miners over bullion or junior miners. Oliver says his fund buys mining shares rather than physical bullion or bullion ETFs, and avoids junior miners, which he characterizes as speculative. He favors blue-chip names.
• Potential allocation shift. He suggests that if large asset managers move 5%–10% of portfolios away from equities or other traditional assets, relatively small inflows could have a substantial impact on gold and mining shares.

Assets and Companies Mentioned

• Precious metals: Gold and silver; no specific silver price target is given.
• Mining funds and indexes: GDX (gold-mining ETF), SIL (silver-mining ETF), and the XAU Index (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Miners Index).
• Companies: Newmont Corporation and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM). Oliver describes them as blue-chip examples and says they returned near their January highs after the August 5 signal.
• Other markets and assets: Government bonds, including T-bonds; U.S. equities and the S&P; Japan’s Nikkei; commodities; and the federal funds rate.

Macro Outlook, Figures, and Cautions

Oliver says government debt and bond-market concerns, elevated equity valuations, and possible outflows from crowded financial assets could create a different environment for gold and silver than in earlier rallies.

He characterizes the stock market as appearing to have peaked and declined, and expects evidence of that in the next quarter. He also says the coming year could be dynamic, with much of the gains in gold, silver, and mining shares potentially occurring in the first few months of a new phase.

He sees a possible commodity supercycle and cautions that any shift in capital could accelerate quickly, making metals prices less orderly than a gradual trend.

Oliver disputes the idea that rising interest rates necessarily hurt gold. As historical examples, he cites:

• Gold rising about eightfold from summer 1976 to January 1980, while the federal funds rate rose from about 4% to 19%.
• The gold bull market from 2002 to 2011.
• The October 2008 stock-market crash, after which he says gold held up, rebounded, and later reached new highs as equities fell.

Oliver gives $8,000–$9,000 gold as a typical bull-market high in a hypothetical scenario. He also compares gold’s price with recent gains in Newmont or Wheaton Precious Metals, saying gold would be about $5,600 if it had matched those gains. These are illustrative comparisons and outlooks, not guaranteed price targets.

He says higher interest rates may have limited effect on gold, arguing that the Fed tends to lag economic conditions and that currency debasement can support gold.

Disclosures and Sources

No explicit financial-advice disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The investment views and price scenarios above are attributed to Oliver.

Presenters and sources: Michael Oliver and an unnamed interviewer. Oliver refers to a report released on August 5 and to charts from his firm’s research.