China's Future Is RADICAL. The West Has No Idea What's Coming | Sheng Zhang

Summary

Sheng Zhang argues that China’s Middle East policy reflects two competing traditions:

• The Maoist tradition emphasizes anti-imperialist solidarity and historically strong support for Palestinian liberation.
• The Dengist tradition prioritizes economic development, trade, and avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts.

Under Xi Jinping, Zhang says, both traditions operate at once. China has become more politically active—mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia and among Palestinian factions—while maintaining extensive economic ties with Gulf states and trade with Israel.

Gaza and Israel

Zhang describes Gaza as an example of this tension. He says Chinese public opinion, especially among younger people, is strongly pro-Palestinian. Some Chinese officials and online commentators have made forceful comparisons between Israel’s actions and historical fascist violence.

At the same time, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry has used more cautious language than other government bodies, and China has maintained commercial ties with Israel. Zhang notes that the war and Red Sea disruptions have coincided with a decline in China-Israel trade, and that Chinese investment in Haifa’s port could be at risk.

Iran and the Gulf states

Iran presents a similar contradiction. China has deepened its diplomatic ties with Tehran through a long-term partnership and Iran’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, Beijing’s economic relationship with Gulf states has caused friction. In particular, joint statements with the UAE appeared to support its position in a dispute over three islands claimed by Iran. Zhang says this episode damaged Iranian trust in China.

On the recent war involving Iran, Zhang says China was initially cautious. It abstained on an early UN vote because it was uncertain about Iran’s stability and did not want to alienate Gulf partners. He argues that Iran’s subsequent resilience shifted Beijing’s view: China became more supportive diplomatically and continued trade.

Zhang also speculates that China may be using Pakistan as a land-trade route to Iran, while acknowledging that he has no evidence of possible military-related assistance.

China’s regional strategy

Zhang argues that China’s balancing act may become harder to sustain. He expects Iran’s strategic importance and the changing regional balance to push Beijing toward a clearer, more Iran-aligned position, though not necessarily through a Western-style response. Instead, China may rely on economic ties and regional diplomacy to shape a security arrangement led by countries in the region.

Discussion

Audience members asked whether China could do more to support Palestinians, including by limiting trade with Israel. Zhang agreed that China’s support for Gaza has been constrained and said Beijing’s reliance on the Palestinian Authority as its main interlocutor can limit its approach. He also argued that Israeli pressure on China may further worsen Chinese public and official attitudes toward Israel.

Other discussion points included:

• The vulnerability of Chinese investments in Gulf states if regional conflict expands.
• The possibility of a regional security framework involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan.
• Whether China’s strategic patience is preferable to a more assertive policy.
• Differences between generations of Chinese policymakers: Zhang acknowledged that his generation may be less patient than older policymakers.
• The tendency of Chinese youth to be more critical of the West.
• Whether China’s development of clean energy could make it less exposed to oil shocks than some neighboring economies.

Presenters and contributors

• Sheng Zhang — presenter and respondent.
• Michael — audience questioner.
• Other audience contributors — several participants asked questions or offered comments; their names are unclear in the subtitles.
• Moderator — unidentified in the subtitles.