Barrick And Newmont Are Five Baggers - And He Says The Juniors Are Better | Don Durrett

Finance-Focused Summary (Markets, Investing Strategy, Portfolio Construction)

Recent Move / Context

• Gold has “run about $300 in just a matter of days.”
• Gold is referenced around ~$4,200, with the expectation that it could dip below $4,000.
• A timeline is given for the bull market:
  • Leg 1 runs Aug → Jan
  • Reaches about $5,600 gold and ~$120 silver
  • Followed by a correction.

Macro Thesis: Why Gold/Silver Miners

• The core view (attributed to Don Durrett) is that gold and silver are the “winners” due to:
  • The bond market
  • A slow weakening of the US economy
  • Debt dependence and “Triffin’s dilemma”
  • Geopolitical issues
  • Cost-of-living pressures
• The approach is described as more Austrian economics / contrarian toward debt-driven growth.
• Miner investing is framed as requiring two supporting theses:
  1. Gold/silver prices go higher
  2. The US economy has problems
• He cautions that relying on only one thesis is not enough.

Key idea: miners require both rising metal prices and a deteriorating macro backdrop.

Market Outlook and Timeline

• He expects “leg two” to form a higher high in both gold and silver (potential new all-time highs).
• He believes leg two may not have started yet, citing:
  • S&P 500 levels
  • seasonality (“weaker months” before November)
• He also expects an equity correction before the midterms / before November.
• Gold correction target(s):
  • Possibly down to ~$3,750 (from ~$4,200), described as a “pretty steep correction.”
• Ideal “buy again” zone:
  • About 15% down (vs a prior 29% correction)
  • Roughly back toward ~$5,500 after moving toward ~$6,500.
• “Top of mountain” possibility for future highs:
  • ~$7,000–$8,000 gold, and possibly ~$10,000.

Trading / Accumulation Framework: “Ride the Train and Buy Dips”

• He avoids having lots of idle cash:
  • If cash reaches about ~3%, he becomes “edgy.”
• Buying cadence:
  • He buys around the beginning of the month (“payday”).
• Buy-the-dip trigger:
  • When gold/silver miners are down
  • And gold/silver are around or below the 200-day moving average.
• He distinguishes:
  • Investors: buy momentum / steady accumulation
  • Speculators (his framing): aim to buy low and maximize compounding by buying as low as possible.

Risk Management and Allocation Design

• He emphasizes diversification, while preferring stock picking over heavily relying on ETFs.
• Miners are described as more volatile than metals:
  • Example volatility cited:
    • January gold: -29%
    • Silver: -55%
    • Miners tend to move “more intensely” than metals.
• “Pyramid base” concept:
  • Base layer: physical + ETFs + mutual funds
  • Above that: higher-volatility exposure (typically producers/mid-tiers/developers)
  • Goal: keep diversification while still enabling upside.

Allocation Shape (Producer / Developer / Explorer Weighting)

• A stated guideline:
  • Producers: 40–50%
  • Developers: 20–30%
  • Explorers: 0–5%
  • Uses tactical cash rounds (“cash round two / cash round three”) rather than holding heavy cash permanently.
• Rationale:
  • In a bull market, he prefers producers and developers because they already provide leverage to metal prices.
  • He argues explorers can be less useful in that environment.
• Internal refinement:
  • A “strong base” of about ~40% producers
  • Plus ~30% developers for “10, 20, 30 baggers.”

Fundamentals vs Sentiment: Earnings Interpretation Example

• CORE / KOR is used as an example of market overreaction:
  • ~$1.1B revenue
  • ~$388M free cash flow
  • ~$4M/day in cash
• Yet the stock fell about ~8% after adjusted EPS missed consensus by over 60%:
  • 12 cents vs 32 expected
• He attributes the miss to operational ramp-up delays tied to a newly acquired Canadian asset.
• He suggests it can take roughly two years to truly understand sector dynamics.

M&A / Consolidation Theme (Why Developers May Get Acquired)

• He expresses optimism about mid-tier M&A, preferring outcomes where both buyer and seller look good.
• He notes “calm M&A” recently:
  • “Not a single silver developer has been acquired”
  • Acquisitions have been mainly producers, not developers.
• He sees consolidation opportunities likely in Australia and Canada.

Cycle Phases and When Not to Sell

He describes miners moving through three phases:

1. Phase 1 (current): undervaluation + poor sentiment
2. Phase 2 / leg two: sentiment improves + fair valuations (not frothy yet)
3. Phase 3: high valuations + mania/frothiness (the exit zone)

• He argues leg two is not froth, so it’s not the time to sell.
• He implies phase 3 is far away and not until “28.”

Developer Execution Failure Mode Risk

• His biggest risk for developer bets:
  • Developers getting sold (taken out) before the full upside materializes
  • That can cap your upside and lead to more “average” returns based on acquisition terms.
• Insider ownership screen:
  • Preferred ~25% insider ownership
  • If insider ownership is below 25%, he may avoid—claiming low insider presence often correlates with eventual selling.

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Explicit Ticketers / Instruments / Assets / Sectors Mentioned

Metals

• Gold (referenced around $4,200, $5,600, $3,750, $6,500, $5,500, and “June 28 around ~$5,600”)
• Silver (referenced around ~$120 and “$200 silver”; also “silver over $50 for a year”)

Broad Equity Index

• S&P 500 (levels referenced around ~7,700 and ~8,000)

ETFs (Specifically Listed)

• SIL
• SLJ
• SLVR
• SLVP
• Also referenced: GDX (called out as part of an “Elite 8” list)
• General note: he owns 7 ETFs total
• He references “gold miner ETFs” broadly as well.

Individual Companies / Ticketers Mentioned (as transcribed)

• Barrick
• Newmont
• CORE / KOR (same company referred to multiple ways in subtitles; context suggests a single ticker)
• Hecla
• McFarland Lake
• Abra Silver
• New Pacific
• Daenerius Metals
• Aerys
• Equinox
• Oro (as part of an acquisition by Equinox)
• Allied (deal described as all-cash with a premium; deal fell through)
• Anglo… and Tech (large majors deal mentioned; subtitle text unclear, implies a deal around $53B)
• Gatos (acquired by “First…/NES” per subtitles)
• Mag (acquired by “CR” per subtitles)
• Genesis
• Regis
• Vault
• Trag / Trafigeria (appears “Trafigura”-like in subtitles)
• Cadelo (described with copper story; long-term output targets abandoned—transcribed as “Cadelo”)
• China (macro behavior reference; not a ticker)

Other Metals / Assets

• Copper mentioned as an “offset metal” for some miners (e.g., Newmont produces copper), but he says he does not own copper miners.
• Oil referenced as another asset class he avoids in a recession scenario.

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Key Numbers Called Out

• Gold current area: ~$4,200
• Gold June 28 record: ~$5,600
• Leg 1 end: $5,600 gold, $120 silver
• Potential correction target: ~$4,000 retest risk
• Stronger correction target: ~$3,750
• Future upside (possible targets): $7,000–$8,000 gold, possibly ~$10,000
• Correction path example: ~$6,500 peak then ~15% correction back toward ~$5,500
• Drawdowns cited:
  • Gold: -29% in January
  • Silver: -55%
• CORE/KOR example earnings:
  • ~$1.1B revenue
  • ~$388M free cash flow
  • ~$4M/day cash
  • EPS: 12 cents vs 32 expected
  • Stock fell ~8%
• Cash threshold: ~3%
• ETF sizing preference: 2%–5% per ETF, not > 5%
• Allocation structure:
  • Producers 40–50%
  • Developers 20–30%
  • Explorers 0–5%
  • Alternative base: ~40% producers + ~30% developers
• Preferred holding count: ideally not 3 stocks; 40–80 total considered a good range (with 60 as a workable target)
• Expectancy heuristic: 7/10 should work, ~3/10 disappoint
• “Bite you” risk for developers: being sold before full upside.

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Methodology / Step-by-Step Frameworks

• Two-fundamentals thesis requirement
  • Bet 1: gold/silver go higher
  • Bet 2: US economy weakens/problems emerge
• “Ride the train and buy dips”
  • Keep cash low (around ~3% max)
  • Buy around month start
  • Buy pullbacks when miners are down and metals are at/under technical reference (200-day moving average)
  • Buy as low as possible to maximize compounding.
• Pyramid portfolio construction
  • Base: physical + ETFs + mutual funds
  • Upside layers: producers/mid-tiers/developers
  • Diversify miners due to drawdown amplification.
• Category elasticity in a bull market
  • Prefer producers/developers over explorers (explorers carry higher risk and may be unnecessary)
• Developer screening using insider ownership
  • Prefer ~25% insider ownership
  • Avoid if insider ownership is too low.

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer is present in the provided subtitles/summary text.

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Jeremy Saffron (host)
• Don Durrett (guest; founded goldstockdata.com; wrote a book on analyzing gold/silver miners)
• Kitco News (context references the channel/host)
• Michael Bur(e)y (mentioned by analogy in a “The Big Short” style comparison)