Stocks Breaking New Highs! New Price Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq

Finance-focused summary (markets, investing takeaways, numbers)

Major market backdrop / highs

• S&P 500 and Dow Jones are described as reaching new all-time highs, with the Nasdaq closing slightly behind.
• The core thesis question: has the rally already topped (“where is the top”), or is there still room to run?

Technical / price-action framework used

3-bar swing / engulfing / support-breaks

• After mid-May weakness signals in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the market “waited” for a new signal.
• Nasdaq signal timing
  • A key point is referenced as late week (~Thursday the 30th).
  • The post-low rebound is described as forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • The speaker explicitly uses “3-bar swing” logic:
    • Although the rebound shows four pushes up, it’s interpreted as aligning with a 3-bar turning setup.

Confirmation logic

• Confirmation includes:
  • A break above the 50% level
  • Breaks past prior support
  • An engulfing candle pattern with strong subsequent buying
  • Volume confirmation is also cited

Dow Jones condition

• The Dow Jones is described as not showing the same “three-bars down” weakness as the S&P 500 / Nasdaq.
• It’s characterized as leading and noted as still below its all-time high during the earlier weakness—implying relatively stronger positioning.

Explicit downside / local-low candidates (timing + levels)

Nasdaq

• A major bounce off a low near ~27,000 points.
• Framed as a potential local low (at least for the time being), supported by:
  • Rebound quality
  • Proximity to the 50% retracement/level
  • Buying-volume confirmation

S&P 500

• Longer-term / local low candidate: “72 to 73xx”
  • Presented as a “good candidate” area; the range is clearly ~7,200–7,300s.
• Key caution:
  • The speaker says they must reassess if the market begins to fall back under the highs.
  • In other words, the “local low” thesis depends on continued strength.

Upside price targets / resistance clusters (S&P 500)

Prior resistance zone (April)

• ~7,400–7,600
  • Watched as a reaction zone in April; later framed as transitioning from resistance to a breakout level.

Next upside “price cluster”

• ~8,500 to 8,800

Psychological level

• ~8,000
  • Called out as a major milestone (described as “first time in history” in the subtitles).

Extension / cluster logic

• The speaker links these levels to “extension levels” and clusters formed when price breaks through earlier overbalance in both time and price.

Macroeconomic / cycle narrative (18-year economic cycle + real estate cycle)

• The speaker claims the market is near the peak of the stock market cycle within an 18-year framework.
• They cross-check this with real estate and economic cycle analysis.

Real estate / construction spending

• Non-residential construction
  • Peaked around late 2024, then “came off the boil.”
  • Historical cycle lows referenced around ~2011–2012.
  • They suggest lower highs may be forming, but there’s no decisive breakdown yet.
• Residential construction
  • Discussed as topping around 2006 and bottoming later.
  • The current cycle’s “low” is tied (in context) to 2011–2012.
• Total construction spending (all-in)
  • Suggests a later peak around late 2024 to early/mid 2025.

Takeaway

• Even with real estate cycle conditions peaking, the speaker argues the stock market is not ready to collapse yet, implying more upside potential remains.

Cycle / decade offset comparisons (historical analogs)

• Uses decade-offset charts described as spanning ~100 years (1926–2022).

S&P 500 analogs

• 2006
  • Sideways/corrections into March–April
  • Corrections in September and late October
• 1996
  • Rally out of lows
  • Correction into early September
  • Additional corrections in October
  • Then more upside “breathing room” into Nov–Dec (per the analog narrative)

Nasdaq analogs

• 1996
  • Present action compared to dotcom-era behavior.
  • While the story differs (AI narrative vs. dotcom “every company adds .com”), the speaker claims cycle behavior is similar and could support continued upside if price cycles play out.

Risk caution / “checks and balances” concept

When markets go “out of hand” (e.g., 1998–1999 Nasdaq blowoff), watch whether price fails to test prior highs.

• A bull-market sign described:
  • Corrections that test prior highs (or trade near them), framed as “checks and balances.”
• Implication:
  • If Nasdaq starts to behave like late-1990s blowoff conditions (rising hard without retesting prior highs), downside risk rises.
  • The speaker says they’ll update in future videos.

Performance metrics mentioned

• No explicit quantified portfolio performance metrics are provided (no returns, Sharpe, drawdown, or yield levels).
• The dominant “metrics” are:
  • Price levels
  • Retracement (the “50% level”)
  • Volume confirmation

Disclosures / promotions

• Mentions:
  • “Make sure you like… subscribe…”
  • A TIA Pro sale / discount and “extended lifetime discount”
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

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Assets / tickers / instruments mentioned

Market indices

• S&P 500
• Dow Jones
• Nasdaq

ETFs (homebuilders / real estate-linked)

• XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF)
• ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF)

Sectors / themes

• Homebuilders
• Real estate cycle
• Non-residential and residential construction

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Methodology / step-by-step framework referenced

3-bar swing / swing logic

• Identify “three bars down” as a slowing/weakness signal.
• Look for a rebound sequence showing higher highs and higher lows.
• The speaker notes: “for our counts, we look for three,” while the rebound shows four up moves, interpreted as supporting the 3-bar setup.

Engulfing candle confirmation

• Use an engulfing candle after a low as confirmation of reversal strength.

50% level confirmation

• A rebound near the tracked 50% level, followed by a breakout, supports the local low thesis.

Support-to-resistance behavior

• Prior support levels are watched to ensure they break upward as confirmation of trend resumption.

Volume confirmation

• Buying-volume increases (not necessarily the single largest day, but consistent confirmation) support the reversal/breakout argument.

Cycle / analog overlay

• Compare current price behavior to historical “decade offsets” (notably 1996 and 2006) alongside real-estate construction-cycle timing.

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Key numbers and targets explicitly stated

Nasdaq

• Low area referenced: ~27,000 points

S&P 500

• Resistance / turning zone: ~7,400–7,600
• Psychological level: ~8,000
• Upside target “cluster”: ~8,500–8,800
• Potential local / longer-term low candidate: ~72 to 73xx (interpreted as ~7,200–7,300s)

Construction / real estate cycle

• Non-residential construction peak: late 2024
• Possible later peak with total construction: late 2024 to early/mid 2025
• Historical real-estate lows referenced: 2011–2012 (non-residential context)

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter: Jason Pazino (tiainvestor.com)