WATCH NOW: Fmr PM and Asia Society CEO Kevin Rudd at National Press Club | ABC NEWS

Overview

Kevin Rudd used his National Press Club Westpac address to warn that Australia is entering an era of unprecedented strategic, economic, and technological pressure. He attributes this mainly to:

• China’s rise
• The rapid expansion of AI
• Accelerating climate-driven extreme weather (acknowledged, but deferred for later in the speech)

Rudd argues Australia risks “sliding into becoming a second rate country” unless Australians—especially leaders—undergo a “radical change” in national psychology, replacing complacency with:

• urgency
• shared purpose
• stronger national imagination

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Core thesis: Australia must stop complacency and build resilience

Rudd frames Australia as having drifted into a “complacent country” mindset, built on outdated beliefs that it will automatically “punch above its weight.”

He argues that:

• governments can change policy, but national responsibility sits with the wider public
• Australia must work to remain “in the first rank”
• incremental reform alone is insufficient because multiple global shifts are occurring simultaneously

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Three reshaping forces on national security

Rudd highlights the first two of three “mega changes” reshaping security.

1. China’s rise

Rudd argues China is already near-parity—or advantage—across multiple domains:

• Military: larger fleet capacity and rapid shipbuilding
• Economic: closing the distance to the US and potentially surpassing on key measures
• Technology: heavy R&D spending, leading positions in critical technologies, and prolific academic output

He attributes these outcomes to a deliberate, relentless Chinese techno-industrial policy, including:

• industrial scale
• concentrated state control of resources
• subsidies

2. The AI revolution

Rudd presents AI as both an opportunity and a security threat, warning about:

• AI-enhanced military applications, including autonomy in weapon systems
• cyber and infrastructure risks
• biological and financial threats
• “AI agents” that may act autonomously beyond creators’ “sandboxes”

Because of these risks, he argues Australia must become a “substantial AI power” rather than relying on others’ goodwill.

Note: Climate change is treated as the third major force, but Rudd says it will be addressed in a later address.

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What Australia must do: defense self-reliance plus broader national mobilization

Rudd says the US alliance remains essential, but “not sufficient” for long-term security. He supports stronger Australian sovereignty and resilience through:

• Alliance + capability building
  • ANZUS as a force multiplier
  • next-generation cooperation in cyber and intelligence
• AUKUS as critical self-reliance
  • Pillar 1: attack-class submarines, with future indigenization in Australian hands
  • Pillar 2: defense-industrial collaboration and access to US defense market scaling
  • emphasis on sustained and adaptable defense funding, including a cited target to lift defense spending to about 3% of GDP by 2033
• Regional diplomacy and partnerships
  • expanding defense and diplomatic collaboration
  • strengthening ties with Japan
  • maintaining open communications even while addressing China
• Clear messaging and public understanding
  • reducing jargon
  • explaining threats in plain language to the Australian public

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Economic resilience: productivity and industry policy

Rudd argues Australia needs both:

• Productivity growth (efficiency and real incomes)
• National economic resilience (investment environments and industries that keep the country functioning during prolonged crises such as war, energy disruptions, or pandemics)

He criticizes the “productivity-only” orthodoxy from Treasury and argues that “resilience” is effectively industry policy.

He contends that industry policy has become the global norm due to:

• China-style state-led industrial approaches
• similar shifts in the US and Europe

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Proposed “industry policy” for seven AI-relevant sectors

Rudd recommends government-industry collaboration to create world-class companies in seven sectors tied to AI-driven productivity and future growth:

1. AI (compute, models, services)
2. Biotechnology
3. Renewables / energy transition
4. Critical minerals and rare earths (mining, refining, magnets)
5. Defense industry
6. Automotive (rebuilding sovereign capability via EV and 3D printing)
7. Finance (Sydney as a potential Indo-Pacific financial services hub using super funds)

He also proposes appointing sector “industry commissioners” with Prime Minister-level authority to:

• cut through bureaucratic delay
• tailor incentives
• coordinate across levels of government
• be measured by real outcomes (investments, companies, jobs), not process compliance

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AI governance principles (data rights and energy requirements for data centers)

On AI policy, Rudd endorses principles drawn from the Prime Minister’s AI framework, including:

• resolving copyright in a way that benefits creators
• a legal right for individuals to prevent use of their personal data
• allowing media companies to negotiate compensation for data use by AI companies
• requiring Australian data centers to have dedicated energy sources (e.g., attached solar farms) to avoid price impacts

Rudd argues that many AI investments are stalled by policy uncertainty, and that Australia risks losing ground unless it moves urgently.

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Speech’s institutional argument: government sets priorities, public service delivers outcomes

Rudd argues the system works when:

• elected governments set defense/industry/technology priorities
• the public service delivers measurable outcomes with project-management competence

He criticizes public service changes that, in his view, reduced permanence and encouraged risk-averse processes rather than outcome focus. He calls for:

• greater tolerance for risk
• performance-based meritocracy

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Q&A highlights (additional themes from reporters’ questions)

AI “guard rails” and US-China cooperation

Rudd suggests cooperation may be possible due to ongoing US-China negotiations, with guard rails potentially discussed ahead of a late-September summit. His main concern is frontier models being held by third parties and non-state actors, including autonomous AI agents.

US vs China as “responsible citizens”

He frames the US debate as domestic and transitional (including whether the rules-based order is sustainable), while arguing China is seeking influence within UN structures and building an alternative order centered on China.

Palestine/Israel settlement imports

Rudd supports Australia’s long-standing commitment to a two-state solution, argues Australia should not merely copy other approaches, and says the government will work with partners to respond to current challenges.

Taiwan risk calculus and deterrence

Asked about Taiwan and whether Australia would join the US, Rudd reiterates an “elevated risk” assessment tied to timing and triggers (including Taiwan’s election and Chinese leadership calculations). He emphasizes deterrence—making the risks of action outweigh perceived advantages.

Would Australia have “choice” in a Taiwan conflict?

He says joint facilities are genuinely joint and notes Australia has disagreed with the US at times (e.g., troop withdrawal decisions) while still managing alliance continuity.

Washington dysfunction and an ambassadorial approach

Rudd says ambassadors should separate “noise from substance,” engage cabinet-level decision makers, and account for US divided government processes—especially legislative actors needed to implement agreements like AUKUS.

Iraq hypothetical

In discussing a scenario about whether the Iraq coalition would have proceeded if WMD intelligence were accurate, Rudd argues other geopolitical considerations (including the post-decapitation regional outcome) still made the decision problematic in hindsight.

Public communication and AI fear

He urges translating AI and geopolitical threats into understandable language—covering both:

• concrete benefits (e.g., faster drug development)
• concrete security risks (e.g., cyber/infrastructure and financial impacts)

Misinformation around data centers / interference in debate

Rudd does not comment on specific alleged incidents. He argues interference in open societies is inevitable and that intelligence services should provide sober, timely assessments without compromising sources.

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Presenters / contributors

• Kevin Rudd (former Prime Minister; Asia Society CEO; main speaker)
• Tom Connell (National Press Club president; anchor at News24)
• Kim Bergman (Asia Pacific defense reporter)
• Anna Henderson (SPS World News)
• Matthew (reporter, SNH/possibly The Sydney Morning Herald)
• Ben Packham (The Australian)
• Tom Lowry (ABC)
• Mark Riley (Seven Network)
• Tess econom (AAP)
• Ruben Spargo (News24)
• Cory Mloud (Innovation Aus)
• Emily Saunders (Network)

(Other individuals are referenced but not shown as questioners in the provided subtitles/transcript excerpt, including Prime Minister and ministers such as Penny Wong, Richard Marles/Miles, and officials tied to AI/digital policy.)