Senjata Utama Value Investor Itu Laporan Keuangan | TIGER TALK

Summary

Value investor Thomas William (“Koh Thowilz”) says his approach is to find businesses whose future improvement he can explain with evidence, while paying a reasonable valuation. He does not require a stock to be statistically cheap if its growth prospects justify the price. For companies without growth, he would consider them only if the dividend is sufficiently attractive.

Financial-statement framework

Thomas treats financial reports as his primary research tool. If he could examine only one statement, he says he would choose the balance sheet, because it shows a company’s financial health.

His process includes:

• Build a research universe: He says he used to analyze roughly three issuers each week—around 150 or more in a year—then wait for attractive sentiment or prices before trading.
• Read the income statement: Trace revenue to net profit, break revenue down by business segment, and examine each segment’s growth. Identify major costs and consider how changes in input prices may affect margins.
• Check the balance sheet and cash flow: Assess cash, debt, and whether operations are financed by operating cash or repeated borrowing. Profits may not be sustainable if a company’s cash position is weak and debt keeps rising.
• Interpret debt in context: High leverage is not automatically bad for asset-intensive businesses. His illustration compares a 5% borrowing cost with a 10% return on the financed assets.
• Assess capital allocation: He calls management’s decisions about deploying profits a critical factor. Poor capital allocation can undermine an otherwise good business.
• Test the future case with supporting data: Past results help reveal a company’s characteristics, but do not guarantee future performance. He cautions against relying on hope or extrapolating last year’s growth without understanding the business.

Illustrative company cases

• Geothermal project (issuer not named): He gives a hypothetical example of a 220 MW plant operating at 90% capacity. The discussion estimates annual revenue of about Rp2.7 trillion and applies a roughly 30% net margin to illustrate how a currently weak or loss-making company could become profitable. These are illustrative assumptions, not a forecast for a named issuer.
• Bottled-water business (caption appears to say “MDK”; issuer identification is uncertain): Thomas describes revenue of about Rp2 trillion the prior year and a target of roughly Rp2.5 trillion for the current year, with a new single-use gallon product and factory expansion. He estimates one factory could contribute around Rp240 billion in revenue, and discusses a larger factory and expanded production capacity. These are his estimates.
• XL / XL Axiata (likely EXCL): He attributes large losses to accelerated depreciation associated with a merger and asset overlap, rather than solely to deteriorating operations. He says the accelerated depreciation is expected to run through the end of 2026, and that results could improve from 2027. His rough scenario puts 2027 net profit at Rp4–5 trillion; applying an illustrative 20× multiple implies a market value of about Rp80–100 trillion. He compares this with an approximate current market value of Rp60 trillion and says dividends could add to the return. This is a speculative scenario, not a guaranteed outcome.

Investing styles and holding periods

Thomas says he is willing to invest across different company types, depending on the opportunity:

• Cyclical businesses: Consider buying when the cycle is weak if there is a reason to expect recovery; he warns that a favorable cycle can reverse sharply.
• Turnarounds: Potentially attractive because recovery may lead to more than one valuation re-rating, but they are difficult to identify.
• Slow growers: He would generally consider these only when dividends are high.
• Growth companies: He may continue holding while the business and growth case remain intact, and sell if profitability deteriorates or valuation no longer fits growth.

He argues that investors often underestimate opportunities because they focus on short horizons, such as a week or a quarter. He cites 25–30% annualized returns as attractive in some situations and says 15–20% annual compounding over the long run can be meaningful. He contrasts this with the unrealistic assumption of earning 100% every year.

Banks, currency, and market flows

The discussion uses Bank Mandiri (likely BMRI) and BRI (likely BBRI) as examples of Indonesian banks:

• A 9% rupiah dividend yield may translate to about 4% in U.S.-dollar terms if the rupiah weakens 5%—roughly comparable, in the speaker’s example, to U.S. bond yields.
• He notes that Japanese bond yields had risen from about 0% to 1.8%, making foreign bonds more competitive alternatives for some investors.
• He says banking sentiment also depends on non-performing loans (NPLs). In his account, changes to KUR microcredit rules at the end of 2023 limited repeat borrowing to four cycles, contributing to higher NPLs. He expects the microcredit situation to improve the following year after a further policy change, but this is his view, not a confirmed outcome.
• He discusses perceived risks around the Red and White Cooperatives program and a proposed transfer of some lending risk from Himbara banks to Agrinas.
• He identifies possible MSCI/free-float rule changes as a market-flow risk for bank shares, rather than a fundamental business problem. The discussion suggests the outcome might become clearer around December/January, with a possible effective date in May; the timing and implementation were uncertain.

His practical approach is to build a position gradually and retain cash for a potential sell-off, rather than trying to predict the market bottom. He says temporary floating losses are part of investing.

Portfolio construction and risk

• Thomas says his personal portfolio is concentrated: about 90% was in one holding at the time of the interview. He says that position began at roughly 20% in 2021 and grew as the investment became his highest-conviction idea.
• He regards concentration as a potential advantage for retail investors, but his example is highly concentrated and carries substantial single-stock risk.
• He separates investing from speculation: speculative positions should use a small, explicitly designated budget that the investor is prepared to lose. He cautions against wanting speculative upside without accepting the possibility of a total loss.
• He says he is willing to consider less-followed, lower-liquidity stocks, but that is a strategy-specific preference—not a general endorsement. Lower liquidity can make entering or exiting a position harder.
• He favors adding to a position when the investment case remains attractive rather than focusing on whether the average purchase price rises. His stated priority is increasing the portfolio’s rupiah value, not preserving a percentage return.
• He advocates regularly reviewing company disclosures and exchange information, including announcements about potential corporate actions that may not yet appear in financial statements.

Assets, companies, and references mentioned

• Equities and companies: XL / XL Axiata (likely EXCL); Bank Mandiri (likely BMRI); BRI (likely BBRI); HMSP; GGRM; and an unnamed bottled-water issuer (caption rendered as “MDK,” identification uncertain).
• Sectors and businesses: Telecommunications, banking, microcredit/KUR, bottled water, geothermal power, coal, and asset-intensive businesses such as towers.
• Other instruments and market references: U.S. bonds, Japanese bonds, dividends, rights issues, MSCI index rules, and free float.
• Investment thinkers referenced: Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher, Peter Lynch, and Warren Buffett.

Disclosures and cautions

No explicit “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles. The speakers caution against relying on rumors, assuming losses automatically mean a bad business, extrapolating past growth without analysis, trying to time the exact market bottom, and speculating with money one cannot afford to lose. Numerical company scenarios and valuations are presented as estimates or illustrations, not assured outcomes.

Presenters and sources: The host is not named in the subtitles. Guest: Thomas William (Koh Thowilz). Source/channel: Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia — Tiger Talk.