Why YOU Are Scared To Buy Property Right Now | Mark Bouris & Nerida Conisbee

Summary of the video’s main points (Australian residential property market outlook)

Why buyers are hesitating (“scared to buy”)

Nerida Conisbee (Ray White chief economist) says the market has shifted from strong confidence to uncertainty. She attributes this to:

• Higher interest rates
• Budget changes
• Weakening consumer sentiment
• Broader negative macro/news factors (including the Middle East war)

This uncertainty is showing up in real behavior: open-home attendance has fallen sharply—to about half of what it was a year earlier—suggesting fewer active buyers and fewer transactions.

Media and forecasts are amplifying fear

She argues media commentary is increasingly negative, with forecasters becoming more bearish even after early forecasts that were “sensibly” moderate.

• Example: an aggressive forecast (Morgan Stanley projecting ~10% declines) helped create a narrative that it “could fall further.”
• That narrative reduces willingness to buy, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, where declines are most visible.

Budget effects: CGT vs negative gearing (and investor lending)

Conisbee downplays the impact of CGT changes, suggesting that in a scenario of slow house price growth but high inflation, some changes may leave parties better off.

However, she highlights negative gearing changes as a bigger analytical/behavioral driver:

• She points to a pullback in investor lending (ABS data referenced).
• So the budget is not only affecting sentiment—it’s also changing investor economics and lending demand.

Why large national price falls are unlikely

She does not expect major crashes, mainly due to:

• Investor concentration in lower-priced segments

  • Investors are often concentrated in areas priced under $800,000.
  • Prior first-home buyer support (a 5% deposit scheme) previously helped that segment move quickly.
  • The budget reduces that investor presence, so the segment may slow longer-term, but it doesn’t necessarily imply broad-based collapse everywhere.

• A “floor” linked to replacement/build costs Conisbee argues established-home prices can’t fall too far while replacement costs remain high. If values dropped significantly, development would be uneconomic, and market dynamics (including supply constraints) would tend to push demand back toward existing housing.

She notes similar patterns have happened historically, including a COVID-era shift toward established areas when building costs rose.

Waiting for a “bottom” behavior

She emphasizes that buyers delay purchases in falling markets because they fear buying at the “top” and suffering further declines. This is described as a rational response:

“If prices keep falling, why buy now?”

Regional areas still showing strength (but sentiment-dependent)

Conisbee acknowledges regional markets can look different.

• Geraldton (WA) is used as an example where prices doubled over roughly five years (about $300k to $600k), driven by:
  • Population growth
  • Job creation after an earlier decline

Regional recovery can still occur, but she notes sentiment can still cause temporary hesitation if people expect further falls.

Population growth as a structural demand driver

She frames housing demand as fundamentally driven by: jobs → population → housing need

Examples she cites include:

• Darwin, driven by government/military activity and related economic activity.
• Southeast Queensland (Gold Coast/Brisbane/Sunshine Coast), where post-COVID work flexibility and business formation made the economy more diversified—creating stronger population growth and a “multiplier effect.”

Infrastructure and amenity premium

She argues infrastructure location and everyday amenity matter strongly for valuations:

• A Sydney metro-line study suggests homes within walking distance to a station may be valued around 15% higher than comparable homes not near a station.
• Long-term suburb traits include:
  • Public transport access
  • Walkable amenity/retail precincts (not necessarily large shopping centers)
  • Proximity to water (beaches/rivers/waterways)
• Transport is described as a major value driver, especially walkable train/metro/tram access.
• Very close freeway proximity can reduce value due to noise and traffic impacts.

Shopping and convenience matter (local example)

In a Lennox Head example, she agrees that the arrival of a major supermarket (Woolworths) corresponds with a sharp uplift in prices—supporting the idea that practical daily convenience influences buyer willingness and perceived livability.

Apartments vs houses

She says the long-run rule is:

• Houses outperform apartments on average

But she also notes suburb-level outliers, including:

• Premium inner suburbs where apartments outperform compared with houses elsewhere.

She attributes some apartment strength in smaller markets to earlier first-home buyer incentives, which pushed affordability demand toward apartments/townhouses.

12-month national forecast

Her outlook is modest declines, not a collapse:

• Dwelling prices may fall a little longer, but not more than about 5% nationally from peak to trough (and 5% is described as the “absolute maximum” likelihood).
• The timing is linked to uncertainty resolution, especially stabilization of interest rate expectations.
• If rates move into cuts next year, she expects a more substantial improvement.

Interest rates / Reserve Bank stance

She suggests there may be no further rate hikes, expecting a stable period. However, she notes uncertainty remains if inflation or unemployment data changes the Reserve Bank’s outlook.

Commentary on unemployment measurement and rent policy

She says she doesn’t focus heavily on unemployment measurement, but she is frustrated by housing policy and commentary, especially rent forecasts from Treasury that she believes were unrealistic.

She contrasts:

• Modeling assumptions (where withdrawing investors doesn’t lead to large rent increases) with

• Actual outcomes such as tight rental supply in Sydney, including:

  • fewer rental properties available
  • rising population pressure

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Presenters / contributors

• Nerida Conisbee (Chief Economist, Ray White)
• Mark Bouris (host/interviewer)