Avi Gilburt: What Does the Future Hold for the S&P 500, Gold, and Silver?

Finance-focused summary (S&P 500, Gold, Silver) — Avi Gilburt (Elliott Wave)

Core thesis / macro framing (Elliott Wave context)

• Avi Gilburt argues markets follow recurring, self-similar Elliott Wave patterns driven by mass sentiment/psychology (not fundamentals).
• He believes the long secular bull move (dating back to Elliott’s 1940s-era expectations) is near its end.
• The next regime is a long-term bear market (Wave 4) lasting ~13 years minimum and potentially up to ~21 years.
• Key dependency: he emphasizes confirmation—not adopting a “bear market” stance until specific chart levels break.

Assets / tickers mentioned

• S&P 500 (index)
• Gold (price levels; also referenced via ETF proxy)
  • GLD (Gold ETF)
• Silver
• Treasuries / Treasury market (general; no specific ticker given)
• TLT (asked by audience; no detailed targets provided)
• ES / NQ / NASDAQ (asked by audience; no detailed targets provided)
• Mentions of mining stocks (no tickers)

Key numbers & explicit targets / levels

S&P 500 (long-term bear market expectation)

• He describes completion of a long bull structure and expects the start of a Wave 4 bear market.
• Bear market duration:
  • ~13 years (Fibonacci 13-year idea)
  • Up to ~21 years (Fibonacci 21-year idea)
• Primary downside target for the long-term bear market:
  • ~1100 region (ideal target)
  • “Could be as shallow as ~2000” (alternative)
• Historical reference levels used to justify structure:
  • Great Financial Crash low: 666 (described as “the fourth wave of one lesser degree” completion)
  • Tech bubble top: 2000 (Wave 3 top reference)
  • COVID crash low around ~2187 (context for earlier calls)
• Near-term “confirmation” levels (daily chart framework):
  • If price breaks below the B-wave low from end of March, that is the first indication bear market may have begun.
  • Further confirmation: after a corrective rally off that low, if the market breaks below the subsequent low, that “confirms” the long-term bear market regime.
• Potential timing for upside “last rally” before bear market starts:
  • He leaves open the possibility of another rally that could run into 2027 before the bear market completes (i.e., bear market stance not confirmed yet).
  • He expects confirmation-based changes rather than pre-emptive calls.

Gold

• He expects gold’s correction is not finished yet.
• Target zone to complete correction:
  • ~4000 to 3600
  • He says “at least the 4,000 region,” and mentions as low as ~3600
• Near-to-medium-term path assumptions:
  • Preferred scenario: another rally north of ~5100, “could be as high as ~5500”
  • “Good target” for the rally he wants: ~5300 to ~5100
  • That would then set up a decline back to ~4000 (and potentially ~3600)
• Higher-degree correction uncertainty:
  • GLD could potentially drop to around ~250 (consistent with a large Wave 4 down, though he’s not certain whether it’s “done” yet).
• Upside after the correction (conditional):
  • If gold rallies off the 3600–4000 zone in a 5-wave structure, he’d be prepared for new highs, potentially ~7000–8000 (possible, not guaranteed).

Silver

• He updates his buy/target framing:
  • Previously bullish below $20 (earlier call mentioned for subscribers)
  • Now: “anything you buy below $60” could be attractive long-term
• Lower target / “buying opportunity” zone:
  • ~35 to 55 as the “sweet spot”
  • He also says it “could get down as low as ~35”
• Ideal target for a major buying opportunity (in his silver correction context):
  • ~5350 (appears inconsistent with silver’s dollar price scale; likely an auto-error or units issue, but it is explicitly stated)
  • He also references a “target box down there” to complete the initial stage of correction (level not precisely restated with clear units)
• Structure-based rule for silver:
  • If silver breaks down strongly from key levels, that’s the more direct path to lows.
  • If silver rallies off lows in a corrective (not impulsive) way, it could form a B-wave followed by another crash (C-wave) lower.
• Audience level reference / decision point:
  • He repeatedly references a $70–$71 area:
    • If silver keeps breaking above/through this area, it affects the likelihood of the “lower path” starting directly.
    • He still insists structure confirmation is required.

Methodology / framework explicitly described (step-by-step logic)

• Elliott Wave structure & sentiment extremes
  • Markets develop through recurring 5-wave patterns:
    • Waves 1, 3, 5 move with the trend
    • Waves 2 and 4 move against the trend (counter-trend)
• Fractal / self-similar counting
  • Wave patterns repeat at multiple degrees:
    • Large wave decomposes into smaller 5-wave structures
    • Each subdivides again
• Secular thesis
  • He claims the long-term bull structure is completing and that Wave 4 (bear market) should begin.
• “General path” for Wave 4
  • Wave 4 commonly takes an ABC corrective structure:
    • A-wave: usually an ABC itself
    • B-wave: usually a corrective rally (ABC)
    • C-wave: usually a 5-wave crash (labeled “crash waves”)
  • He emphasizes this is a general path, not a guaranteed exact route (triangles/morphing are possible).
• Confirmation triggers (S&P)
  • Look for break below the B-wave low (end-of-March low) on the daily chart.
  • Then require a second breakdown below the subsequent corrective rally low to confirm the long-term bear market regime.
• Risk management approach (position sizing / cash)
  • He claims he reduces risk when targets are hit:
    • “By the time the market approaches a target,” he gets heavily into cash
  • Personal positioning:
    • Over 80% cash currently (as described)
• Buying opportunistically during bear markets
  • Expect multi-year corrective rallies inside a bear market, followed by crashes, creating repeated “opportunity windows.”

Recommendations / stance (explicit)

• S&P 500
  • He does not claim the bear market has started yet.
  • He expects the bear market to begin after confirmation:
    • break below March B-wave low, then break below the next corrective low
  • He allows for a final upside rally into ~2027 before bear market completion.
  • If a corrective pullback occurs:
    • wait for a 5-wave rally off that pullback
    • then consider buying back on the later corrective pullback
• Gold
  • Expect correction continuation; highlight 3600–4000 as the major buying zone after the current correction.
  • The “buy trigger” is conditional: a rally off lows in a 5-wave impulse suggests potential for new highs.
• Silver
  • Expect a lower correction stage; $35–$55 as the main long-term accumulation area.
  • Near-term: expect choppy corrective up/down behavior until lows are reached and structure confirms.

Cautions / disclosures

• He repeatedly states: “I am not a prophet… I am an analyst.”
• He stresses the need for structure confirmation before committing to a bear-market stance.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles, but the repeated framing is analytical and confirmation-based.

Disclosures / advisor credentials mentioned

• He describes an advanced background (economics/accounting/law/taxation/CPA), but argues economic theory (e.g., inflation → gold rally) often fails relative to actual market finance dynamics.

Inflation Q&A (how he addresses it)

• He rejects the idea that inflation mechanically drives gold/silver:
  • He references the efficient market hypothesis originator’s view that macroeconomics “doesn’t work” for finance.
  • He claims gold did not rally during prior inflation/QE periods and “crashed during QE2 or QE3.”
• Conclusion:
  • gold/silver will rally only when the chart correction completes
  • whether the rally reaches new highs depends on the structure of that rally.

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Avi Gilburt
  • Elliott Wave analyst; founder of elliottwaveetrader.net
  • Money Show speaker
• Charlotte (host/moderator; credited as “Charlotte,” asks/triages questions)
• Ralph Nelson Elliott (credited with Elliott Wave discovery and 5-wave system)
• Mandelbrot (referenced regarding fractal methodology)
• Sam Wilson (referenced as the originator of the Efficient Market Hypothesis; quoted about abandoning macroeconomics)
• Garrett Patton (mentioned as producing the 100+ year S&P chart shown earlier)