Всех поснимали и даже Бондаренко | Что дальше с выборами в Госдуму (English subtitles) @Max_Katz

Main events and claims about the election in the State Duma

The video discusses a crackdown on opposition and independent candidates, arguing that Russia’s electoral system is designed to:

• Prevent meaningful competition
• Keep turnout and vote behavior favorable to the Kremlin

A central example is the arrest of Nikolai Bondarenko (Communist Party), described as one of the most popular parliamentary candidates and the host of the YouTube channel A Deputy’s Diary. The presenter claims Bondarenko was detained at home by multiple police officers and then brought to court-adjacent administrative proceedings.

What Bondarenko’s case is presented as showing

The presenter argues the authorities used an administrative article often used to remove candidates:

• Article 20.3 (extremism-related symbols) is described as being used to label certain images or content as “prohibited symbols,” even if they are not on the official federal extremist list.
• It is claimed that Navalny-related material (including potentially a surname) can be treated as extremist content.

The presenter’s claim is that this mechanism is widely used to:

• Attribute others’ words/images/videos to defendants
• Remove candidates without transparent public scrutiny

Bondarenko’s hearing is said to have been held behind closed doors, which the presenter calls “absurd,” because it allegedly does not involve:

• state secrets, or
• protected minors

The video also links the case to a broader pattern: other candidates were reportedly barred or eliminated, including:

• Mikhail Matveyev (Communist Party) over alleged copyright infringement
• Yabloko’s federal list being removed from the ballot, which the presenter says reduces the opposition electorate’s willingness to vote

Why the presenter says these actions target turnout and voting behavior

The central argument is strategic: the system wants low, controlled turnout so the electorate does not “send the wrong message.”

The presenter claims that removing viable candidates and parties leads people to conclude:

• there is “nobody left to vote for”

This, in turn, is presented as encouraging boycott/abstention.

The video also references an earlier episode about election boycotts, including:

• a claim that authorities previously used their own spokesperson to encourage people to stay home
• that claim being amplified by bot-like spam accounts posing as opposition supporters

Bot / spam campaign allegations

The presenter alleges an organized bot campaign that floods comments across videos. Alleged tactics include:

• Posting repetitive claims that anyone urging turnout is working for the Kremlin (e.g., “Plus 15 rubles” phrasing)
• Accounts that are said to be hijacked or newly created
• Promoting boycott arguments while appearing active and copying identical text, presented as evidence of coordinated manipulation

“Playing the long odds” political strategy: key analytical points

The presenter develops a counterintuitive strategy: even if success is unlikely, participation can still matter, because under certain conditions political action resembles a “risk-free” casino bet (illustrated with a roulette analogy). Even if most attempts fail, repeated attempts could eventually produce a meaningful outcome.

The video also argues that opposition strategists often fear “staking reputations,” but that this fear is described as overstated, based on past experience:

• 2018 campaign support for Grigory Yavlinsky (characterized as having tiny chances) is said to have caused no lasting reputational damage.
• After barriers against Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, the presenter describes supporting Vladislav Davankov as an “antiwar” positioning attempt.
  • Some local results were described as promising
  • but the overall strategy allegedly failed to reach significance

Broader claim: since Russians currently lack realistic means of force against the regime, elections are described as the main lever for pressure and possible “system wobble.”

What scenarios the presenter thinks are possible in the current environment

The video outlines likely outcomes and emphasizes that the regime tries to neutralize most “upset” scenarios in advance:

1. Most likely: Opposition-leaning voters become disillusioned and stay home, while United Russia wins a constitutional majority through loyal turnout (honestly or with minimal padding), resulting in little public outrage because turnout appears genuinely low.

2. Another plausible outcome: A stronger Communist Party result, though the presenter argues this may be negative because Communists are now positioned as pro-war, limiting their usefulness as a protest vote.

3. Least likely: A real electoral upset (example numbers are proposed) where turnout of angry voters forces United Russia far down, potentially causing:

   • clear signals from proportional lists that the public rejected the regime
   • threats to single-member-district winners (because to win, a party must generally finish first or close to it)
   • high risk for the system, which might respond with either fabrication or repression—described as uncertain and resource-intensive

Call to action: participate, but strategically

The presenter argues participation is rational and necessary despite slim chances:

• The system’s advantage comes from discouraging participation, not from inevitability.
• There are still “options” on the ballot that opposition-minded voters can support to siphon votes away from United Russia.

Proposed approach

• A future, detailed look at which parties and candidates remain
• Then collective decision-making on whom and where to vote to maximize odds of an unlikely upset scenario

Closing emphasis

The presenter stresses momentum and scale:

• The channel recently passed 2.5 million subscribers, mostly in Russia.
• The presenter claims the opposition’s support base and activity are larger now than during earlier protest moments (e.g., 2011).
• They argue the main limiting factor would be opponents losing courage or giving up.

Presenters / contributors

• Max Katz (main speaker / presenter)