البورصة المصرية - البورصة النهاردة يحلل الجلسة والسوق والمؤشرات وأهم الأسهم المرشحة للصعود: 26-08-19

Finance-focused summary (EGX / macro / stocks) — 26-08-2019

Market performance (EGX indices)

EGX 30

• Open: 55,276
• Low: 54,381
• High: 55,348
• Close: 54,512 (-764 points)

Technical levels discussed:

• Broke an “important support” during the session; potential rebound zone around 54,500
• Larger timeframe support: 53,442
• Weekly high cited: 56,100 (target to regain)
• Bearish/sideways framing: possible drift toward 52,000 if weakness continues

EGX 70

• Open: 2,167
• High: 21,706.56
• Low: 20,960
• Close: ~20,962 (-704 points)

Technical levels discussed (intraday/short-term):

• Key level: 21,322
• Referenced rebound target: 20,230 (smaller timeframe target mentioned)

Longer-term comment:

• Seen as starting a “correction” after a strong run
• Earlier support cited at 19,900 and 18,233

---

Market breadth / flows & executions

• Total executions: 14,700.67 million (≈ 14.7B)

Net flows (all net sellers for institutions):

• Egyptian institutions: net sale 116M
• Arab institutions: net sale 35M
• Foreign institutions: net sale 193M

Net purchases:

• Egyptian individuals: net purchase 291M (largest buyer)
• Arab individuals/participants: net purchase 43M
• Foreigners: net purchase 10.945M

---

Company fundamentals / earnings season (macro narrative)

Earnings recap (2Q / first half focus)

• From last week until end of today:
  • EGX 30: 19 companies reported
  • 14 positive results in 2Q, 5 negative

Highlighted strong positives:

• Telecom Egypt
• e-Finance (eFinance for Financial and Digital Investments)
• Orascom Development Egypt
• Ibn Sina Pharma
• Also noted: Orascom Construction, Fawry (Fawry for Banking Technology & Electronic Payments)

Negative results caution (some declines described as small / justified):

• IGF Group: profit decline about 3%, with revenues rising
• Valu/Valmore Holding for Investment: revenue growth around ~25%; profit decline linked to exceptional comparison effects

Multiples note:

• Valu/Valmore multiples around ~4.8 (described as strong)

How this tied to price action

• Analysts argued the index’s calm/decline was partly because markets had already priced in expectations for positive earnings; profit-taking occurred after results confirmation.

---

Stock spotlights with numbers & explicit valuation/risk cues

1) Telecom Egypt (Etisalat Egypt)

• 2Q vs prior year: profits almost doubled

Key drivers:

• Revenue +21% (quarter)
• Margin improvement: gross margin to 43% vs 41%
• Data revenue +30%
• Investment income share: +52% from stake in Vodafone Egypt

1H (combined):

• Profits +47%
• Gross margin 41.5% → 43%
• Revenue +17.5%

Valuation / recommendation-style output:

• P/E: ~6.7–7
• Valuation target: 144 EGP/share
• “Potential defense/upside cushion” stated as ~25% vs closing price ~115 EGP

Tickers/companies mentioned: Telecom Egypt, Vodafone Egypt (stake)

---

2) eFinance (e-Finance for Financial and Digital Investments)

• 2Q profit growth: +91%
• Revenue: ~+19.5%
• Gross margin: stable at ~57%

1H:

• Profits ~+65%
• Revenues ~+29%
• Profit margin improved to 58.6% vs 56% (first half of 2025 mentioned)

Valuation:

• P/E: ~26 (described as low vs average/historical)

Corporate actions / strategy:

• Fully acquired Tamweely Financial Services
• Expanding toward data optimization / leveraging stored data for revenue
• Cloud services/storage taking a “substantial portion” of revenue
• Announced/owned 8.8% stake in Welzey (platform owned by Act Financial)

Upside logic & recommendation references:

• Upside logic tied to tourism momentum (as stated)
• Mentioned they were “already on a recommendation”
• Last updated price cited around 26 EGP
• Price discussion included a high around 120 EGP (some subtitle fragments unclear)

Tickers/companies mentioned: eFinance, Tamweely Financial Services, Welzey, Act Financial

---

EGX 70 technical trade idea (single stock): Zahraa El Maadi

• Setup: moved from consolidation into an upward price channel
• Waiting zone: around 7.34, then it dipped to 7.39

Volume/participation:

• Trades executed: 80,576,000
• Avg execution volume: 30,270,000
• High: 7.93
• Close: ~7.79

Technical targets (daily timeframe):

• Target: 8.60 EGP
• Then: 9.25 EGP

Ticker mentioned: Zahraa El Maadi

---

EGX 70 earnings highlights (2Q 2026 vs 2025)

• Total discussed: ~29 companies
  • 14 positive results (2Q 2026 vs prior year)
  • 15 negative

Companies with strong operating/profit indications:

• U Consumer Finance (Valu): strong operating performance
• Housing & Development Bank: profits up
• Elsewedy Electric: net income/returns growth; wires & cables revenue support; share price rose
• Micro Capital: profits up; revenue growth; positive margins
• Dice Garments: profits nearly doubled, offsetting early-year weakness

Negative focus / watchlist:

• EIPICO: profit decline due to margin deterioration
• Catalyst/mitigant: opening third factory described as “important news” but not yet reflected in statements
• Action framework: reassess when next quarters’ financials reflect impact; forecast/fair value updates expected

Tickers/companies mentioned: U Consumer Finance (Valu), Housing & Development Bank, Elsewedy Electric, Micro Capital, Dice Garments, EIPICO

---

Macro & rates: Central Bank meeting expectation

Timeline / base case

• “Four meetings left,” including tomorrow
• Base case: interest rates likely unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting

Rationale

• Global activity expected to continue growing but at a slower pace
• Commodity prices may fluctuate; Egypt expects ~5% economic growth
• Macroeconomic support:
  • FX flexibility
  • International reserves: $56.33B
  • Remittances: $43B over last 11 months

Inflation:

• July inflation 14.9% vs 14.3% in June
• Expected to slightly accelerate due to base effects
• Characterization: inflation pressure is supply-side (rising costs), not demand-side

Real interest rate:

• Range stated: 4.1%–4.8% (depending on inflation reference)

Liquidity absorption:

• Banks raised rates on 3-year savings certificates

Risks / caveats mentioned

• Electricity price increases averaging ~12% may influence inflation as the base year fades
• Possible fuel price increase next September could affect inflation and rate decisions
• “Prices stable/likely” hoped for in the near-term decision

Instruments noted: “3-year savings certificates.” No specific government bonds/ETFs were cited.

---

Technical watchlist / “question segment” (support/resistance & stop-loss logic)

General approach used:

• Identify support/resistance and wait for confirmation (daily close/rejection/weakening)
• For sells: look for weakness (daily close below prior day) or intraday failure after resistance
• If support breaks: move to lower levels and implied stop-loss behavior

Fawry

• Weekly: sideways/consolidation range 21.57–24? (subtitle garble; 21.57 clearly mentioned)
• Daily close condition: above 19.39
• Resistance attempt: 19.80 (failed to close above)
• Caution: “indicator is red”
• Downside watch: could drop toward 18.70, then around 17.70
• Upside targets if condition met: 20.75 and 21.57

New Egypt (ticker text unclear)

• Weekly uptrend: breakout from restructuring range
• Target zone: 7.45
• Intraday buy/re-entry range: 7.20–7.45 (if the close improves)
• Additional levels cited: 8.65 then 8.28 (smaller timeframe)

Ask for Mining

• Daily sideways: 56.29–73.73 EGP
• Resistance: 70.93 EGP
• Support: around 62 EGP
• If breaks below 62: next levels 59.66 and 56.29
• Stop-loss cue: “if it loses that level, I’ll start putting a stop loss.”

Ibn Sina Pharma

• Strong rise then heavy selling volume
• Support 1310 EGP broken
• Next supports: 1274 then 1180 (subtitle fragment suggests “118…”)

Egypt Cement / Cement

• Volume spike noted (two high-volume bars)
• Current close: 223.99 (formatting unclear regarding currency scale)
• Moving average referenced: 213.33
• If rebound fails: could move toward 204.98
• Resistance: 240, then if holds above 240 target 292

Any Finance / Any Finance (and banks)

• Mentioned as liked; grouped with Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and Telecom Egypt
• Key level: 25 EGP
• Thesis: close above 25 EGP starts a “complete upward journey”

Madinat Misr

• Very strong weekly support: 7.5 EGP
• High today: 7.70
• Trade trigger: if surpasses 7.70, enter aiming 8.0 then 8.51
• Also cited as in an upward channel

Dice for Clothing

• Sideways; broke a minor trend line
• Support near 90 EGP
• Possible rebound from 91–92 (subtitle fragment unclear, but 90 is key)

Arab Cotton Ginning

• Broke out of an upward price channel; accelerated with higher volume
• Wait for stabilization around 12.31 EGP

---

Methodology / framework used (step-by-step trading logic)

• Index-level technicals

  • Identify key support/resistance on weekly and intraday timeframes (e.g., EGX 30 supports 54,500 / 53,442; EGX 70 key 21,322)
  • Determine whether price stays in an upward price channel or breaks the lower boundary
  • Use level breaks to adjust bias (break → look for lower targets; hold → expect rebound)

• Stock-level execution

  • Wait for rebound to resistance after index stabilizes
  • Check weakness signals:
    • Weakness defined as daily close below previous day, or failing from the day’s high back down (example logic included in subtitles)
  • For bearish confirmation:
    • If support breaks, move to next supports and use stop-loss concept after breakdown

• Earnings-to-price linkage

  • Count positive vs negative 2Q earnings
  • Emphasize margin changes, revenue growth, and one-off effects
  • Use multiples (e.g., P/E and valuation) to frame “defense/upside”

---

Key tickers / sectors / instruments mentioned

• Indices: EGX 30, EGX 70
• Financials / banks: CIB, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Housing & Development Bank, U Consumer Finance (Valu)
• Telecom/tech: Telecom Egypt, eFinance, Vodafone Egypt (stake), Fawry
• Healthcare: Ibn Sina Pharma
• Construction/real estate: Talaat Mustafa, Orascom Development Egypt, Orascom Construction
• Earnings/industrials: Elsewedy Electric, EIPICO, Micro Capital, Dice Garments
• Malls/retail/cotton: Arab Cotton Ginning, Madinat Misr, Dice for Clothing
• Other: IGF Group, Valu/Valmore Holding for Investment
• Sectors referenced: banking, telecom/data, banking tech & payments, pharmaceuticals, cement, milling, wires & cables, tourism-linked services, cloud/storage, data optimization
• Macro/instruments: central bank policy rates, 3-year savings certificates, FX flexibility, international reserves, remittances

---

Disclosures

• Subtitles contained no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer.

---

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Mr. Saeed Al-Af (المُقدّم/ضيف)
• Mr. Ahmed Rabie (الضيف/المحلل)
• Program name referenced: “The Stock Exchange Today” / “The Stock Market” (Arabic: البورصة المصرية / البورصة النهاردة)