IISS Manama Dialogue 2026 | A New Economic Agenda: From Reconstruction and Development to Prosperity

Summary

The plenary examined how countries can turn reconstruction and development into lasting prosperity amid Gulf conflict and wider regional instability. Speakers argued that disrupted shipping routes, infrastructure, and supply chains show why resilience depends on regional cooperation—not only on rebuilding physical assets, but also on strengthening institutions, diversifying economies, and connecting markets.

Japan’s message and policy

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in a recorded address, said Japan was preparing a comprehensive plan to support Gulf economic and energy resilience. She emphasized diplomacy, stable energy supplies, safe navigation through key straits, and cooperation in advanced technologies such as AI.

Japan’s representative reiterated condemnation of attacks on civilian facilities and vessels, describing regional instability as a challenge to the international order. He highlighted potential cooperation with Middle Eastern countries in infrastructure, industrial diversification, AI, energy security, and defence.

ESCWA’s regional perspective

The UN representative argued that security must include societies’ ability to recover, invest, trade, and provide a credible future for their citizens. She said reconstruction should restore productive capacity, build effective and accountable institutions, and reconnect conflict-affected economies to regional markets.

Citing the scale of humanitarian need and displacement in the Arab region, she warned that prolonged “no war, no peace” conditions undermine development. She called for coordinated investment in transport, energy, and digital links, alongside compatible regulations and trade procedures, so connectivity benefits neighboring and conflict-affected economies—not just transit hubs.

Iraq’s economic agenda

The Iraqi representative presented stability, a productive economy, and balanced partnerships as linked goals. He said Iraq aims to reduce its dependence on oil by developing industry, agriculture, services, technology, and transport; reforming banking and public spending; and expanding the private sector’s role in investment and job creation.

He described the Development Road project as an opportunity to connect Iraqi ports and transport routes with Turkey and Europe and to create logistics and industrial opportunities. Digital transformation and stronger institutions were also identified as priorities.

US approach

The US representative argued that private investment and trade are essential to sustained economic growth, while acknowledging that development assistance can help create the conditions for private capital. He pointed to regional integration, the Abraham Accords, and the proposed India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor as ways to expand commercial links and reduce reliance on vulnerable chokepoints.

He also highlighted cooperation on AI, critical minerals, semiconductors, and other technologies, and cited large Gulf investment commitments. Asked about possible renewed conflict with Iran, he offered no detailed account of US negotiating objectives, saying diplomacy remained active while the US was also prepared for other possibilities.

Discussion and conclusion

Participants questioned how investment can be attracted amid the risk of renewed conflict, how Gulf states should prioritize finite capital, and how Japan can cooperate on technology and energy diversification while respecting partners’ strategic autonomy.

Speakers stressed the need for stability, capable institutions, coordinated regional investment, and policies that make projects commercially viable. The session closed with the argument that reconstruction can replace what war destroys, but durable prosperity requires institutional capacity and shared economic opportunity.

Presenters and contributors

• Moderator: Bastian (identified in the subtitles as “Bastian”; surname unclear)
• Recorded address: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
• Panelists:
  • Kobe Yashuhiro, Japan’s Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary and Deputy National Security Adviser
  • Dr. Rana (name unclear in subtitles), Executive Secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
  • Ysef Alawi, Chairman of the Advisory Commission to the Iraqi Prime Minister
  • Ambassador Donald Bloom, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
• Questioners: Robert Ward (UK); representatives or journalists from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Republic of Korea, the United States, and France; and other audience members whose names are unclear in the subtitles.