Video summary

I Might Sell This Underperforming Stock This Week

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Portfolio & performance (Couch Investing vs S&P)

  • Couch Investing portfolio: +1.39% over the past week
  • S&P 500: -0.34% (as transcribed)
  • Year-to-date (YTD):
    • Portfolio: +39.44%
    • S&P: +11.7%

Technical analysis / near-term trading levels (mentioned tickers)

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • “Successful bounce” near support; aiming to get back above ~$350
  • Expects renewed momentum around the release of “Gemini 4”

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • Momentum weak; partly attributed to sector pressure (space sector)
  • Wants a base around ~$60–$65

SoFi (SOFI)

  • Recommendation: buy under ~$17
  • Wants price to reclaim above $17, ideally toward ~$18
    • Recent highs mentioned: ~$18.90

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Support / base building around ~$253
  • AI-wave framing: Amazon’s AI spending supports AWS; described as a major winner

Meta (META)

  • Described as undervalued with momentum
  • Referenced around ~$540–$545
  • Possible entry / pullback levels: ~$620–$635
  • Over ~12 months: could reach ~$1,000

New holding (“new”; likely NEWL)

  • Support area around ~$14
  • Wants it back above $14 soon
  • Framed as undervalued and already profitable, priced as if growth won’t be high

Netflix (NFLX)

  • Under pressure for a while
  • Down ~5% after an analyst reduced the price target (Friday mentioned)
  • Support / “hold” around ~$220–$223
  • Would buy more on pullback toward ~$200
  • Reason cited: concerns about entertainment time spent / attention to Netflix; analyst note trigger

Reddit (RDDT)

  • Condition: as long as it stays above ~$150, the base is “fine”
  • Key catalyst: renewed AI data licensing deals (starting with Google)
  • If no deals emerge, treated as a red flag

Axon (AXON)

  • Keeps declining; speaker said a buyer “bought more at the start of the week”
  • Week close mentioned: ~$447
  • Support above a prior level; target bounce back above ~$500

MercadoLibre (MELI)

  • Rejected above ~$2,000
  • Two-week grind lower, still above a prior “floor”
  • If it holds and bounces, expects momentum return

Uber (UBER)

  • “Market misunderstanding” thesis
  • Base forming around ~$70
  • Claims frequent AV partnership / launch updates globally

Portfolio construction changes / ranking notes

  • #1: Top holding remains “Nebus” (transcribed; likely NBEV)
  • #2: AMD after a strong run
    • Referenced at ~$560, now ~10% of the portfolio
  • #3: SoFi
    • Despite underperformance YTD, speaker says they’re up ~41%
  • #4: Google
  • #5: Meta
  • #6: Rocket Lab

Additional small/other holdings mentioned:

  • Oscar (unclear ticker) with an investor day
    • Midterm targets for 2029: EPS above $4 by 2029
    • Speaker calculates a forward multiple and claims it’s still undervalued
  • Other mentions: Oscar, local (likely LSE), Micron (MU), Rubric (likely RBRK), Palantir (PLTR), Uber, New Reddit (RDDT), Axon, Netflix, Cash, and some shares of Nvidia (NVDA)

Specific trade

  • Speaker bought 4 extra shares of Axon around ~$442
  • Trigger: day after announcement of a $1 billion convertible at 0%; stock down nearly 10% (“Thank you very much”)

Explicit decision: potentially replacing Netflix with Broadcom

Current Netflix position / underperformance

  • Speaker is down ~16% on NFLX
  • Loss stated: ~$2,430
  • Position size: ~2% of the portfolio
  • Motivation: not just dislike—wants to swap capital into something else

Proposed replacement: Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Considering replacing Netflix with Broadcom
  • Netflix described as “attractive on paper,” but Broadcom is framed as having a better growth/valuation setup

Valuation & financial metrics cited (NFLX vs AVGO)

Netflix valuation snapshot (speaker’s numbers)

  • Trading P/E: ~22.6
  • Forward P/E: ~20.7
  • PEG: ~1.0
  • Operating margin: approaching ~30%
  • Revenue growth expected to slow:
    • 13.3% (fiscal 26)
    • 11.2% (fiscal 27)
    • 10.1% (fiscal 28)

Netflix free cash flow (speaker’s estimates)

  • Free cash flow growth expected to outgrow revenue growth:
    • ~36% (fiscal 26) (spike attributed to prior year base effects)
    • ~10% (fiscal 27)
    • ~17.4% (fiscal 28)

Broadcom valuation & growth snapshot

  • Trading P/E: ~45.7
  • Forward P/E: ~20.7
  • Price-to-free-cash-flow: ~22.7
  • Revenue growth acceleration cited:
    • ~65.8% (fiscal 26)
    • ~63.6% (fiscal 27)
    • ~57.2% (fiscal 28)
    • Fiscal 2028 revenue target: ~$272B
  • Free cash flow growth:
    • ~82% (fiscal 26)
    • ~74.3% (fiscal 27)
    • ~58.3% (fiscal 28) to ~$135.5B
  • Profitability/margins cited (directionally strong vs Netflix):
    • Operating margin ~48%
    • Free cash flow margin ~44.2%
    • Gross margin ~68.8%
    • Net profit margin ~42.9%
  • Revenue per employee growth:
    • ~74% over a couple of years, ~13.9% CAGR (speaker cited)

DCF / implied upside (Broadcom)

  • Speaker claims DCF shows Broadcom is “extremely undervalued”
  • Probability-weighted implied share price: ~$638
  • Implied upside: ~83.3% vs current price (as of recording)
  • Assumption framework for the first two years (management-aligned):
    • AI semiconductor revenue doubles in year 1, then doubles again in year 2, to ~$230B, then growth rates decline

Explicit caution / risk discussion (Broadcom)

  • Risk if major AI customers underdeliver on expected growth:
    • Customers referenced: OpenAI, Anthropic, and “hyperscalers”
  • Concern: if AI model demand/growth isn’t durable, Broadcom’s growth could be at risk
  • Mitigation implied: other large customers are expected to remain longer-term

Timing

  • Speaker still holds Netflix now, but says “by the end of next week” they might replace it with Broadcom.

Methodology / tools mentioned

  • DCF valuation approach (used for Broadcom; and DCFS available generally)
  • Reliance on Fiscal.ai (affiliate/promo mentioned)
    • Used to view company forecast metrics like revenue growth and free cash flow

Company/AI themes (macro-to-theme links)

  • “AI wave” uncertainty: preference for large “core businesses” benefiting from AI spending
    • Examples cited: Amazon (AWS), Alphabet (Google/AI), Meta (AI productization)
  • Space sector pressure framed as a market-wide correction affecting Rocket Lab (RKLB) and peers

Disclosures / affiliate / promo

  • Fiscal.ai
    • Described as a partner
    • Link in description/pinned comment
    • 15% off for users
    • New users get Fiscal Pro for free for the first two weeks
  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was included in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Main presenter: “Couch Investing” (channel/portfolio host referred to as “Tanner”)
  • Attribution mentioned: Tanner credited for convincing the speaker to look more into Broadcom
  • Tool/source: Fiscal.ai
  • Companies mentioned as customers/players: OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Shopify, Google

Original video