Where is the October 2026 Visa Bulletin?

Overview

The video focuses on a surprising delay: as of September 28, 2026 (two days before October 1), the U.S. Department of State has not yet released the October 2026 Visa Bulletin. The speakers note that the absence of official explanation is unusual, with widespread speculation, but they also lay out several likely factors and what the delay could mean for employment- and family-based immigration.

Main Arguments and Key Points

Visa Bulletin release delayed (unusually late)

• The hosts note that the October 2026 Visa Bulletin is typically expected well before October 1, yet it has not been released at the time of recording.
• They anticipate it may be published within the next 48 hours, but stress there is no definitive answer from the government.

Public charge litigation impacts consular processing and visa availability

The discussion connects the delay to fallout from public charge litigation and related operational pauses:

• They cite a prior 75-country pause (January–August 2026) tied to public charge rule changes, later disrupted by a court.
• Even though the pause ended, they argue it could still affect:
  • How many visas remain available for October
  • Whether family categories may see increased demand due to backlog

Court order related to family-based interview reinstatement (43,000 cases)

The speakers describe a key court-driven variable:

• About 43,000 family-based visas/interviews are described as denied or delayed but ordered to be reinstated and processed.
• They argue this court-driven demand could force the government to manage visa numbers more conservatively, potentially causing:
  • A pullback in family category movement at the start of the fiscal year (October 1)
  • Downstream impacts to employment categories, because visa number “elasticity” across categories may shift with demand and availability

Competition between family and employment visa “buckets”

A central analytical point is that the delay may be driven more by family-based dynamics than the public narrative of primarily employment-focused issues:

• Although employment-based immigration often dominates attention, the speakers suggest family processing needs may be creating uncertainty.
• They speculate that the government may be unsure how to treat the 43,000 reinstated cases immediately, and how that choice affects allocation into employment categories.

Consular logistics: training pause affecting interview scheduling

• The speakers mention consulates have experienced interview-related disruptions due to training on public charge policy.
• They argue that if consular operations are not processing or generating needed information, it becomes harder to release a bulletin with confident, accurate numbers.

Risk of repeating past “visa bulletin chaos”

• The hosts reference historical problems—especially October 2020—when sudden shifts led to prolonged confusion and retroactive adjustments.
• They imply the government may be trying to avoid another “nightmarish wave” by delaying or releasing more cautiously.

USCIS/State coordination and possible “deliberate” non-release

• One contributor suggests the delay may reflect a deliberate choice rather than a simple numbers-crunch issue.
• They interpret recent notice patterns (e.g., “initial review” activations) as possible preparation for future visa bulletin movement, while cautioning that this remains speculative.

Policy climate speculation: reducing notice and predictability

The speakers also link the delay to a broader posture that may reduce predictability:

• They express the view that the government may aim to make processes less comfortable and less predictable, pointing to examples like proposals to cancel/alter the grace period.
• They connect this to the idea that the visa bulletin may be released only when the government feels ready—or when operational/political factors align.

Possible conservative movement in October

Even if October movement occurs, the speakers predict it could be limited:

• Potential retrogression in family preference categories to protect processing needs from the court mandate
• Limited forward movement elsewhere at least initially

Can advocacy/lawsuits force proper visa allocation?

The discussion turns to whether outside pressure could compel better allocation:

• They reference a 2007 precedent where the government quickly withdrew visa availability, followed by reversals after legal/legislative pressure.
• They consider whether groups could sue if visas were “willfully burned” or misallocated.
• However, they repeatedly note that the visa bulletin is opaque, making it difficult to prove dereliction without sufficient evidence.

Audience Q&A Highlights (Visa Bulletin-Focused)

Could the government not release the October visa bulletin at all?

• The speakers say the State Department must release something—at minimum by deadline—but speculate the format could change.
• For example, dates for filing might be removed or altered, since the bulletin structure can be more policy-driven than strictly mandated.

Family category F4 retrogression question

• They state they have no visibility into the decision-making process.
• They frame the key variable as how many of the court-mandated 43,000 cases fall under F4:
  • If many are in F4, F4 could retrogress
  • If fewer are in F4, F4 may move differently

Personal travel and timing questions

• They advise that short international trips are generally possible.
• Longer trips—or travel that might be considered borderline—may create complications due to consular discretion and individual circumstances.

Presenters / Contributors

• Sam Shiha — Law Firm of Shihab Burke
• Brian Burke — Law Firm of Shihab Burke