Решения нет, да?! С Вадимом Герасимовичем

Overview

Bloomberg (citing an unnamed source) reports that negotiations in New York between Volodymyr Zelensky and EU official Ursula von der Leyen took place in a tense atmosphere.

Key Points from the Zelensky–von der Leyen Talks

Concerns raised by Ukraine

Ukraine reportedly expressed fears that Russia could intensify missile attacks in winter, citing shortages of air-defense missiles.

Sanctions dispute

Ukraine also reportedly protested that, under an agreement to extend sanctions, Europe agreed to lift sanctions against two Russian oligarchs.

Von der Leyen’s post-talk message

After the meetings, von der Leyen said Europe is increasing defense efforts, including:

• A new anti-missile program aimed at boosting production quickly
• Expectations of more support for Ukraine
• About €37 billion still available for the current calendar year
• Parliamentary reforms that could unlock additional budget backing

A speaker in the video endorsed von der Leyen’s figures, claiming they align with earlier discussion, and suggested that funding could eventually reach Ukraine’s central bank (NBU).

The Presenter’s Financial/Trump Argument

The presenter argues that Zelensky will not focus on financial discussions with Donald Trump, because:

• The money issue is already partly settled
• Additional loans are still expected

Referenced figures include €37–€38 billion for the year, and the war is described as making it more expensive—implying inflation pressures and rising costs.

Prospects for Ending the War (as framed in the video)

The video portrays the prospects for ending the war as uncertain, suggesting diplomacy may not produce real change.

Alexey Arestovich’s critique of forecasting

The presenter cites Alexey Arestovich, arguing that predictions fail because they assume Vladimir Putin behaves like a normal rational actor. Instead, Putin’s “logic” is said to be shaped by:

• His mindset
• An information environment that feeds him favorable narratives

Therefore, forecasts are presented as unreliable.

Ceasefire Scenario Discussed

A key scenario is that a ceasefire would likely occur only if Western support and missile procurement—especially long-lead systems and factories—are secured in advance by Europe.

The presenter claims that if Trump pursues a deal, the timing of any ceasefire would depend more on military supply and financial preparation than solely on battlefield realities.

More Pessimistic Geopolitical Outlook

The video shifts to a darker geopolitical argument: if political conditions are unfavorable for Trump, the presenter believes the “British scenario” would dominate—meaning:

• The war continues “to the last Ukrainian”
• Europe would keep European Russia under pressure
• Europe would avoid direct fighting

Warnings for Neighboring Countries

The presenter echoes warnings that countries in the Eastern and Balkan regions—near key transport routes—could be drawn into conflict. They recommend preparing “emergency suitcases” with documents and resources in case of bombardment, referencing statements by Radosław Sikorski about readiness.

Proposed “Legal-Political” Solution

The presenter proposes a radical solution: restoring a “legal format” similar to the one established at the end of the USSR by arguing the dissolution was illegal, and returning Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus to legal continuity anchored in 1991 referendums and agreements.

The claim is that this would remove major motives for the conflict and lead not only to a ceasefire but to a longer-term end of the war.

Presenters / Contributors Mentioned

• Vadim Gerasimovich (host; referenced in the title)
• Ursula von der Leyen
• Volodymyr Zelensky
• Alexey Nikolaevich Arestovich
• Plamen Paskha (guest; stated as “Plamen Paskha was with us today”)
• Radosław Sikorski
• Donald Trump
• Vladimir Putin
• M. (signature at the end of the broadcast—unclear full identity)