The Overhyped Fantasy Draft Values I’m Steering Clear Of

Overview

Josh Lloyd (Locked On Fantasy Basketball) critiques widely hyped NBA fantasy draft picks across major platforms (Yahoo, Fantrax, ESPN). His main claim is that many players are being selected too early due to inflated rankings/ADP or a misread of role, usage, and league-category fit.

He frames these as “bad picks”/“overhyped” choices rather than true “sleeper” value.

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Core argument: rankings/ADP aren’t reliable without context

• Lloyd argues that “sleepers” and “failures” are often the same phenomenon:
  • players whose ADP or hype is ahead of their actual fantasy production
• He repeatedly distinguishes between:
  • Category leagues vs points leagues
  • a player can be a value in one format and a poor pick in another
• He warns that relying on ADP alone (especially with auto-draft and sorting) can lead drafters to take players:
  • ~60 spots above the norm
  • at a spot where the player’s role no longer supports the projected output

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Examples of players he says are drafted too high (Yahoo top ranges)

Tyrese Maxey

• Yahoo/ESPN rank: ~6th
• Lloyd argues his usage won’t hold and predicts a drop of below ~27% from last season’s unusually high rate.
• He also cites:
  • more missed games than expected
  • roster context changes (e.g., supporting cast shifts around Embiid/Brown/LeBron situations)
• Conclusion: he wouldn’t take Maxey at sixth; interest starts later (around the mid-teens).

Trae Young

• Lloyd views the mid–second-round price as too early.
• He emphasizes adjusting for:
  • category fit
  • interactions with other players’ rankings

Jalen Duren

• Lloyd says ADP/rankings are too aggressive due to uncertainty around:
  • playing time
  • whether/where he plays
  • team/role changes
• He expects production, but not enough to justify the draft position.

Devin Booker

• After a disappointing season and concerns about possession/role shifts (e.g., more Jaylen Green/Miles Bridges impacting ball control), Lloyd can’t justify the current rank/ADP.

Chet Holmgren

• Yahoo rank movement is noted, but Lloyd still calls it too early.
• He also argues ESPN/overall positioning is illogical relative to how Holmgren is usually valued.

Evan Mobley

• Even with the possibility of a center-scarcity argument, Lloyd believes the draft price is too high.
• He argues centers can be found later.

Alperen Şengün

• Even though he’s lower than before, Lloyd still estimates he’s around ~20 spots too high.

Jaylen Brunson

• Lloyd calls him “too early” for category leagues due to:
  • finals “hangover”
  • role/usage dynamics
  • efficiency variance
• Suggested approach: wait for later value, or use a category-based strategy rather than drafting at peak hype.

Donovan Klingon / Walker Kessler

• Lloyd criticizes their ADP because their fantasy value relies on specific production categories.
• He prefers taking better values later.

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Mid-to-late tier: more “overpriced” picks (Yahoo 51–100 and beyond)

Lloyd argues many players in this range are being drafted based on optimistic role assumptions.

• Steven Adams
  • Fine in points formats
  • Warns category/league mechanics could still cause accidental early picks
• Rudy Gobert
  • Too early due to age/declining defensive assumptions and efficiency concerns (impacting blocks/FG value)
• Alex Sarr
  • Too high based on playing time/competition and limited pathway to the defensive/rebounding impact people are paying for
• Mikal Bridges
  • Criticized as overvalued because the season end was poor for fantasy (low run-rate/production)
• Nick Claxton
  • Concerns about shot-block rebound/decline and whether he can outperform comparable centers
• Miles Bridges / Peyton Pritchard / other role players
  • Lloyd repeatedly argues their ceiling doesn’t match ADP
  • Offensive option hierarchy (who is ahead offensively) caps fantasy upside

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“Failure” lists by platform

Fantrax (top picks he dislikes)

• Tyrese Maxey (ADP ~8) and Jaylen Johnson (ADP ~10)
  • Too high; includes concerns like disappearing defensive numbers (Johnson) and general role/value mismatch
• Trae Young (ADP ~23), Derrick White (ADP ~34), Devin Booker (ADP ~27), Chet Holmgren (ADP ~25)
  • Lloyd calls them “useless elections” at those prices
  • He believes better options can be found later, or the draft slot isn’t justified
• Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brunson, Onyeka Okongwu
  • Lloyd likes some players in general but not at the current round price
  • Cites efficiency/regression and coaching/playstyle fit (notably the Okongwu coaching/system context)

Fantrax 51–100

• Lloyd says multiple ADPs are too high for the scoring/defensive “step forward” people expect (e.g., Steph Castle, Gobert, Alex Len, Mikal Bridges again)
• Miles Turner
  • Criticizes the jump in ADP and compares it to last season’s poor production/usage

ESPN (big focus of the episode)

Lloyd argues ESPN’s updated rankings are especially “crazy,” and that drafters shouldn’t treat ESPN ADP as stable/accurate.

• Disliked examples:
  • Tyrese Maxey at ~6
  • Scotty Barnes at ~10 (especially with Kawhi’s arrival changing usage/rotation)
  • Donovan Mitchell under a “seventh pick” framing (expects assist/usage changes similar to Harden effects)
• Major complaint:
  • LeBron James at ADP ~16 is described as a disastrous misunderstanding of ESPN rankings and draft rooms
• Other ESPN-specific issues include:
  • Anthony Davis ranked too high (Lloyd would take him around low-to-mid 40s from other platforms, not ~14)
  • Bam Adebayo at ~15 (Lloyd claims it’s unsupported by past fantasy outcomes)
  • Jaylen Brown and James Harden too high/too early due to age curve, usage shifts, and declining efficiency
  • Additional players flagged as overvalued relative to role reality (including certain centers, bench/rotation pieces, and “hype” wings)

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Strategic takeaway

• Lloyd’s preferred approach:
  • avoid paying peak ADP for shaky category fit, uncertain usage, or overestimated role changes
• He advocates flexibility:
  • sometimes use a category-abandonment/combination strategy
  • wait to draft for the categories you truly need
• Repeated conclusion:
  • it’s not that these players are “bad,”
  • it’s that the draft slot is too expensive for the expected production.

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Sponsors / ads mentioned (not arguments)

• Mentions FanDuel promos/Rewards Club
• Mentions Aura cybersecurity (protecting personal data from brokers)

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Presenters / contributors

• Josh Lloyd — host (Locked On Fantasy Basketball)
• “Dubby” — co-presenter (mentioned, but not expanded in subtitles)
• Josh Lloyd Fantasy Basketball — referenced as a rebranded show name
• B-Dub — credited for working out a new Fantasy Basketball Bowl/tournament system (from “Fantasy Basketball International”)