Video summary

The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused Subtitle Summary

Market Context & “Cycle” Framing

  • The speaker argues the stock market is approaching a late-stage / euphoria phase of a multi-stage market cycle that repeats over ~100 years.
  • Framework claim:
    • If markets are in the 5th stage of euphoria, they are “going down.”
    • If in 1st / 2nd / 3rd stages, they are “moving up.”
  • They dismiss competing commentary (e.g., dot-com comparisons) and emphasize using market data such as:
    • Valuation
    • Earnings
    • Market breadth

Valuation Metrics (S&P 500)

  • Current S&P 500 level mentioned: ~7700 (described as near a “historic high”).
  • Forward P/E
    • 20
    • 10-year average ~20
    • Positioned “in the middle” versus:
      • 2022 depression stage P/E ~17
      • 2023 bull run P/E ~23
  • Current P/E
    • ~25
    • Down from ~28 last year (described as “cheaper than last year”)
  • Tone / stance:
    • Claims that the market is “expensive” are said to be unsupported on P/E grounds
    • Described as a “fair price” market (not necessarily cheap, but not stretched)

Performance / Momentum Numbers Cited

  • S&P 500: +19% over the past 12 months (described as about double the average)
  • Nasdaq: almost +25% over the last 12 months
  • Bull run duration & efficiency comparisons:
    • Bull run: 3900 → 7700 (about 100% in 4 years)
    • Average bull run duration cited: ~5.5 years
      • Speaker claims the current run is below average in duration
    • Average bull-run efficiency: ~265% vs current cited ~100
      • Speaker claims it’s not even halfway to “normal” bull-run efficiency
  • Tech / event comparisons:
    • 1994 “Internet invention” example:
      • Nasdaq ~+600% over 4 years (from Netscape-release period, per speaker)
    • ChatGPT / AI example:
      • After ~4 years, Nasdaq ~+150% (speaker’s stated comparison)
    • Conclusion: current AI/tech run is argued to be not as euphoric as 1999

Earnings Fundamentals (Major Bull-Case Support)

  • Earnings beat rate (S&P 500)
    • 87% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS
    • 11% above average
    • 10-year average ~76%
  • Profit and revenue growth:
    • Profits up 52% vs expected 23%
    • Revenue up 15% (called strongest indicator since 2021)
    • Net margin increases 15% → 17% (vs avg ~12%)
  • Breadth argument:
    • “10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors… profits rose”
    • Mentions equal-weighted S&P 500: +16% year-to-date
      • Stated as ~3% higher than the regular cap-weighted S&P 500
    • Claim: growth is broad-based, not dominated only by “Mag 7”-type names

Company / Sector Tickers and Valuations Mentioned

  • Bloom Energy
    • “~200%” (near-spot comment)
  • MicroStrategy
    • “by 200%” (near-spot comment; no price given)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
    • Revenue growth cited: 106% (YoY)
    • Quarterly increase cited: +18%
    • Valuation metrics (as stated; some context unclear):
      • ~70% (described in the context of “company worth several trillion dollars”)
      • Price-to-sales multiple down: 25 → 18
      • Trading multiple: ~2540 (units/metric unclear)
      • PEG ~0.4
    • Argument: Nvidia is described as “not expensive” relative to its own metrics/history

Macro Indicators (Risk Context)

  • Unemployment rate: ~4%
    • Described as “not great, but normal”
  • CPI: ~3.5% (described as stable)
  • Retail spending growth: ~5% per year
    • Said to show no “everything falling apart” signal
  • Monetary policy claim:
    • The Fed is “not helping” because money supply is “stagnant”
    • Interest rates stated as ~3.5% for a long time
    • Upside condition suggested:
      • If the Fed cuts rates and money supply increases, it could “fuel this growth”

IPO “Euphoria” Comparison (Risk Not-as-Bad)

  • IPO activity cited:
    • Speaker estimates ~140–150 IPOs in 2026
      • Based on comparison to last year (1999-style framing)
    • 1999: ~460 IPOs (stated as >3x higher)
  • IPO euphoria percentages:
    • Only ~19% IPOs “this year” (as stated)
    • In dot-com era: ~72%
  • Conclusion: today’s IPO fervor is argued to be far below 1999

Market Drawdowns / Correction Claims

  • Speaker argues the market “never correcting” narrative is wrong; cites declines:
    • April last year: -19%
    • 2022: -20%
    • 2023 and 2024: ~10% drop
  • They characterize the pattern as healthy and roughly on schedule vs an average correction/risk profile

Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework Mentioned (Trading / Positioning Rules)

The speaker describes a rules-based “system” combining long-term investing with staged buying and profit-taking:

  1. Build a personal plan & budget
    • Decide how much to invest per month.
  2. Initial allocation
    • Invest half of the planned monthly amount
      • Example: $100 plan → invest $50.
  3. Dip-buy trigger
    • If a stock falls 20% or more below its 52-week high, invest an additional 150% (increase exposure from baseline).
  4. Profit-taking thresholds
    • When unrealized gains reach +50% / +100% / +150%, cut the position by 10% / 20% / 30% respectively.
  5. Purpose / risk management intent
    • “Lower your value” via doubling down on dips
    • “Protect your profits” via staged reductions
  6. Core philosophy
    • Ignore short-term forecasts; focus on:
      • Buy better companies
      • Hold longer
      • Be patient (“get rich slowly”)

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions

  • Investing is repeatedly framed as long-term.
  • Warns against short-term “red ones” / bear-market chasing (no tickers mentioned for this part).
  • Advises against market timing and suggests following the system rather than guessing.
  • States you “will make a lot of money” if you follow the principles.
  • No explicit standard legal disclaimer (e.g., “not financial advice”) appears in the provided subtitles.

Key Numbers & Metrics to Retain

  • S&P 500
    • ~7700
    • +19% (12 months)
    • Forward P/E ~20 (10-year average ~20)
    • Current P/E ~25, down from ~28
    • Earnings / profit metrics
      • 87% beat EPS
      • Profits / EPS-related figure: +52% vs expected 23%
      • Revenue up 15%
      • Net margin 15% → 17% (avg ~12%)
  • Nasdaq
    • almost +25% (12 months)
  • Bull run
    • 3900 → 7700
    • about +100% in 4 years
    • average bull-run duration cited: ~5.5 years
  • Macro
    • Unemployment: 4%
    • CPI: 3.5%
    • Retail spending: +5% per year
  • Rates / Fed
    • Interest rates stated as 3.5%
  • IPO activity
    • ~140–150 IPOs in 2026 (speaker estimate)
    • 1999: 460 IPOs
  • Nvidia (NVDA) (selected metrics)
    • Revenue growth 106%
    • Quarterly increase +18%
    • Price-to-sales 25 → 18
    • PEG ~0.4
    • Other valuation numbers stated but unclear

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” or similar legal disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

  • Commentators referenced:
    • Michael Berry
    • Tom Lee
  • Primary speaker/brand referenced:
    • Tom Nash (also mentions his “academy” and patreon.com/tomnash)
  • Organizations/platforms mentioned:
    • S&P 500
    • Nasdaq
    • The Fed (implied by “Fed”)

Original video