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... And It's About To Get So Much Worse

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News and Commentary

Overview

The episode argues that Britain’s industrial decline is driven by decades-long, compounding policy choices—especially around energy pricing, taxation of work, and “green” rules that shift emissions and production overseas—rather than a lack of worker capability.

1) Electricity costs as the “structural” killer of industry

  • Britain is described as having the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world, framed as a recurring structural problem rather than a temporary spike.
  • The episode claims energy pricing is shaped by a market design where gas sets the wholesale price. As a result, even when wind/nuclear/renewables are generating, industry still pays gas-linked prices.
  • It argues overlapping policies make the burden worse:
    • Carbon pricing plus additional emissions trading after Brexit
    • Renewables funding mechanisms (obligations, feed-in tariffs, contracts-for-difference) These are portrayed as being collected via levies added directly to electricity bills, disproportionately impacting energy-intensive manufacturers.

2) Government decisions and “conveniently not happening” fixes

The speaker claims that while electricity costs rose, mitigation options were stalled or mishandled:

  • Nuclear development stalling for decades
    • Hinkley Point C is described as having been agreed at a fixed price above market value, later delayed and over budget.
  • Reduced gas storage capacity, including the closure of the UK’s largest gas storage facility
    • The episode frames this as especially damaging once the Ukraine war disrupted gas markets.

3) Resulting closures and job losses (primary steel and beyond)

The episode links high energy costs to the disappearance or shutdown of major industrial producers, listing examples across time:

  • Port Talbot primary steelmaking closure (2024)
  • Earlier energy-intensive losses:
    • Aluminum closures (2009, 2012)
    • Redcar Steel (2015)
    • CF Fertilizers stopping ammonia production (2023)
  • Later examples:
    • Grangemouth refinery shutdown (2025)
    • An emergency push to prevent closure of Scunthorpe’s blast furnace (described as tied to ownership plans to abandon purchase/payment for raw materials)

It also extends the argument beyond heavy industry to industrial investment failures:

  • Britishvolt (gigafactory collapse)
  • AstraZeneca canceling a planned Liverpool plant due to promised support cuts and business costs

4) “Corporate tax is a tax on jobs” (and workers end up paying)

A major argument centers on taxation policy:

  • The episode claims corporate taxes ultimately fall on workers, reducing:
    • wage growth
    • job creation
    • hiring
  • It uses a metaphor where business is like a “pipe,” with money ultimately needing to come from customers, owners, or workers.

The episode then describes a government “experiment”:

  • Increasing employer social security (national insurance) contributions
  • Lowering the earnings threshold for paying them
  • It claims the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) concluded most of this would be passed to workers via lower real wages
  • It further alleges that HMRC data shows that in 2025, real wage and employment outcomes deteriorated—especially in hospitality/retail—sectors the episode says could not absorb the costs, leading to reduced hiring

5) Additional employment-disincentive rules

Beyond employer contributions, the episode argues the tax/regulatory framework discourages industrial employment and specialized contracting:

  • Business rates / property tax
    • Presented as partly penalizing investment because machinery/equipment can be included in taxable property values.
  • IR35
    • Portrayed as creating legal uncertainty for contractors, pushing firms away from hiring specialists or encouraging moving work abroad/state or retiring.

Overall claim: these rules combine to discourage hiring and production in Britain.

6) The “solution” offered: self-employment as a hedge (with a warning)

To avoid despair, the episode pivots to advice for individuals:

  • It recommends creating a second income via small-scale self-employment.
  • It promotes a specific framing of tax strategy, such as:
    • a trading allowance of the first £1,000 of trading income being tax-free without registration
  • It warns about an “advance payment” mechanism that can cause newly self-employed people’s first tax bill to be much larger than expected, described as a common trap.

7) “Green leadership” as emissions shifting, not emissions reduction

The episode argues Britain’s climate performance is misleading:

  • Emissions reductions are claimed to count only what happens within UK territory, not emissions embedded in imports.
  • It claims Britain increasingly imports goods made abroad using more carbon-intensive methods, effectively exporting emissions.
  • A key example:
    • Drax, described as burning imported North American wood pellets receiving “renewable” subsidies
    • This is linked to higher electricity bills that allegedly harmed domestic industry
  • It extends the argument to oil and gas policy:
    • excess profits taxes
    • reduced investment incentives
    • refusal of new licenses Then, importing LNG is portrayed as often having higher life-cycle emissions than domestic gas.

8) “The villain” is long-running economic dogma, not one party

The speaker emphasizes the human cost:

  • Workers in towns built around single industries (including references to Redcar and Port Talbot) are portrayed as losing livelihoods despite being trained for those roles.
  • Confidence in a “just transition” is described as extremely low (stated as “only 3%” expressing confidence).

The “villain” is characterized as:

  • a persistent Treasury/elite worldview that treats manufacturing as replaceable by services/finance
  • dismissing disagreement as nostalgia
  • surviving elections and crises

Presenters / Contributors

  • Andy (host), “The Fine Print”
  • Chris Hamilton (oil refinery worker; Unite union activist; “Keep Grangemouth Working” campaign)
  • Paul Mavin (steelworker mentioned via ITV interview)
  • Chris Hamilton and Paul Mavin are referenced as contributors; other institutions cited include:
    • Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
    • HMRC
    • DEFRA
    • external studies (e.g., Oxford Business Tax Center)

No additional individual presenters are named.

Original video