Video summary

10 Stocks to Buy! Value Investing Quadrant Update 2H 2026

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (Value Investing Quadrant update, 2H 2026)

  • The presenter updates a “value investing quadrant” using:
    • X-axis: reward/return (higher reward toward one side)
    • Y-axis: risk (higher risk toward the bottom, lower risk toward the top)
  • Implied rule: the best value-investing setups are in the quadrant with high reward and low risk—described as the “absolute highest reward and lowest risk” at the corner.
  • He notes that Q2 results are mostly in, so he’s refreshing valuation/risk positioning for multiple stocks and ETFs, including some previously discussed names.

Tickers / instruments / assets / sectors mentioned

Individual equities

  • SpaceX (no ticker given)
  • ASML (spelled “ISML” in subtitles; widely known as ASML)
  • BHP
  • PepsiCo
  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B/BRK.A implied; no ticker given)
  • Netflix
  • Verizon
  • Meta Platforms
  • Tencent (0700.HK implied; no ticker given)
  • Accenture
  • QSR Brands (likely Restaurant Brands International; no ticker given)
  • Uber
  • Microsoft
  • MercadoLibre
  • HPQ (spelled “HPQ printers/PCs”; likely HP / related; no ticker given)
  • Domino’s Pizza
  • Nomad Foods
  • Ahold (likely Ahold Delhaize)
  • Nike
  • Amazon
  • “Birkshshire” (repeated; Berkshire Hathaway)
  • “Gregs” (UK retailer/brand referenced; not clearly identifiable from subtitles)

ETFs / funds

  • China internet ETF (no ticker given)

Government bonds

  • US Treasuries / 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (no fund ticker given)

Crypto

  • None explicitly mentioned.

Sectors / themes

  • Semiconductor equipment / AI exposure: ASML; “AI story” for Meta; “OpenAI/enterprise growth” for Microsoft
  • Commodities: BHP and “commodity bubble”
  • Media / streaming: Netflix; Meta
  • Telecom dividends: Verizon
  • Payments / European fintech: “Aden” mentioned
  • Industrials / PCs & printers: HPQ mention
  • Payments / “European payment system”: unnamed ticker

Key macro / rates / valuation context

US Treasuries yield level (risk anchor)

  • 10-year yield: ~4.2% → 4.7% (described as “close to 5%”)

The presenter argues:

  • Even with ~5%, bonds are still not attractive for him because of:
    • potential inflation ~5% over the next decade
    • recession risk
    • “money printing” risk
    • US debt situation risk

He says he will discuss government/fiscal value more on Saturday (timeline).

Methodology / framework used (explicitly described)

2D valuation/risk quadrant

  • Reward (return potential) on one axis
  • Risk on the other axis
  • Stocks are repositioned based on changes in:
    • Business risk (e.g., likelihood of profitability, competitive position)
    • Price/valuation risk (e.g., P/E multiple expansion/contraction)

Intrinsic value table approach

  • Inputs include:
    • Earnings (as the base input)
    • Discount rate / required return assumptions (e.g., 10%, 8%)
    • Growth rate assumptions (e.g., 15%, 20% for a number of years)
    • Margin of safety / probability scenarios (e.g., “bad recession/crash scenario” vs more normal cases)

Practical investor rule-of-thumb

  • He wants: “great buys, not good buys”
  • Target / objective: about 15% potential returns, referencing how he tracks performance over the past 8 years

Notable company-by-company positions & key numbers

SpaceX (worst value-investing case: bottom-left)

  • Described as:
    • Very volatile (from >130 up from 2020, then down >50%, then “up again”)
    • Essentially a “Musk bet”
  • Recommendation/caution:
    • Very unlikely to ever be profitable
    • Therefore positioned as lowest reward / highest risk
    • Not a value-investing candidate for him

ASML (good business; increased price/valuation risk)

  • Price change: ~560 → ~1,500
  • Multiple change:
    • P/E previously in the 20s/30s
    • Now in the 50s
  • Earnings/revenue context:
    • Net sales: 43–45B
    • Investor Day expectation: sales reach the upper range by 2030
  • Profit margin growth assumption:
    • Net income as % of sales up ~30%
  • Illustrative intrinsic math:
    • If revenues reach ~70B by 2030 and profit is ~30%, profits could be ~21B
    • With a ~600B market cap, implies a still-high long-run P/E “down the road”
  • Conclusion:
    • To double his money, market cap needs to reach ~1.2T
    • He says it might hold, but it’s too risky now due to valuation
    • If a “bubble pops,” he’d reposition toward a more attractive area

Amazon (kept, but moved slightly as valuation improved)

  • Previously discussed at ~90 as a buy; now “much different”
  • Intrinsic value logic:
    • Using earnings growth inputs and requiring 10% return
    • He says Amazon is slightly overvalued for the 10% case
    • For an 8% return, he estimates it becomes fairly priced
    • Comparative table yields are cited as around 8%
  • Standard:
    • He wants great setups; target return is ~15%
  • Recommendation:
    • Still a good buy, but not meeting his “great buy” bar
    • Kept in the quadrant but moved toward the left (lower return target, ~7% case)

Meta Platforms (repositioned more positively after price moved)

  • Adjusted EPS growth: ~8%
  • Valuation:
    • “P ratio” lower than represented
    • Fairly priced for ~10% return
  • Upside scenario:
    • If AI accelerates growth, could lead to a described 6x return (then he tempers this)
  • Downside scenario:
    • Worst case ~3% was suggested as “too crazy,” so he uses 5% with P/E ~15
  • Valuation math:
    • “Present value in this scenario 700”
    • Implies ~12% return
  • Action:
    • Pushes further right: ~10–11% return, based on AI narrative evolution

US Treasuries (conservative anchor)

  • 10-year yield: ~4.7%
  • He places Berkshire near this conservative anchor but with less risk for him than Treasuries (per the subsequent point).

Berkshire Hathaway (good but not great; not buying now)

  • He cites Berkshire’s ability to deliver:
    • ~6% long-term return “no matter what happens”
  • Key reasoning:
    • Protected vs inflation because it’s a business/insurance conglomerate
  • Recommendation:
    • He says he would sell Berkshire at current valuation
    • Not a “great return” opportunity because “all the good is now priced in”
  • Time horizon caveat:
    • Price risk exists short-to-medium term
    • Long term: you realize the 5–6%, but waiting could take 10–20 years

Verizon (dividend + valuation reset; downgraded returns)

  • Price move: from the 30s → ~50
  • Positioning change:
    • Dividend yield went down; P/E went up
    • Moved from an 8% return case to a 6% return case
  • Conclusion:
    • More risk / less attractive

China internet exposure via ETF (contrarian due to prolonged stagnation)

  • China internet ETF:
    • 26% down year-to-date
    • “Stock price did nothing for 13 years” while businesses scaled
  • Tencent:
    • Called the core holding
  • Thesis:
    • Prolonged underperformance suggests “potential hiding there” (valuation/market inefficiency vs weak businesses)
  • Positioning:
    • Pushed to a ~10% return assumption within a diversified portfolio development

Netflix (small move; valuation not catastrophic)

  • Intrinsic assumptions:
    • Needs FCF growth ~12–15% and P/E ~25 to be “really undervalued”
  • Placement:
    • Not bad; some downside room, but not a strong “washout” setup right now
  • Positioning:
    • Moved slightly left (less optimistic return) because the stock is somewhat up (earlier ~70 would have been better)

European payments “Aden” (growth deceleration scare partially reversed)

  • Market reaction:
    • Growth feared dropping 25% → 20%
    • Now around ~19%
  • However:
    • Still a ~19% growth business
    • P/E ~30
  • Action:
    • Still implied within the valuation table as a case for ~8% return
    • Moved a little left accordingly (slightly less attractive)

HPQ (PCs/printers; moved up vs his earlier “cheap” view)

  • Earlier view referenced:
    • Dividend referenced as ~6%
    • Buybacks “very high”
  • Now:
    • Stock is significantly above those levels
    • Dividend yield now ~4%
    • Buybacks still present
  • Decision:
    • Moves it to a ~7% return case
  • Emphasis:
    • Whether to sell depends on whether you bought for:
      • price appreciation (e.g., “50% up”) vs
      • dividend / long-term business

Microsoft (value supported by growth, but categorized as high risk/reward)

  • Stock:
    • Up ~38%
  • Intrinsic/value framing:
    • Mentions stock price around 487
  • If growth remains 15% → 10%, he sees value
  • Risk noted:
    • “All the growth comes from enterprise + OpenAI” (labeled “fake revenues” from those drivers)
    • Therefore classified as high risk / reward

MercadoLibre (left on the quadrant; credit issues improving)

  • Didn’t buy at ~1500; now around ~2000
  • Says results are “okay,” with:
    • credit issues existing, but
    • if nothing worsens over a few months, issues subdue and the story returns to growth
  • Action:
    • Leaves it in place

“Clover” / unnamed segment + 2027/2028 catalysts (kept; pending targets)

  • Mentions:
    • New CEO doesn’t look that great
    • Stock stabilized
    • Segments like Clover still growing
    • Described as a 2027–2028 situation
  • Targets if hit:
    • P/E could be ~8
    • Business growth ~8 → 15 (wording described as “growing 8 time 15” and not entirely clear)
  • Action:
    • Kept in diversified portfolio; may add more next month

Additional names mentioned (qualitative notes)

  • Domino’s Pizza: ~5% dividend; kept “still good.”
  • Nomad Foods:
    • Dividend “there”
    • Restructuring planned in the second part of the year
    • If it works, dividend/valuation upside possible
  • Accenture: described as “fairly punished dividend,” now at 180, no major thesis change
  • QSR Brands: ~3% dividend, but removed from the quadrant update due to crowding / thesis unchanged
  • Ahold: listed among the research/portfolio-building universe
  • Uber: “great buy,” positioned on the quadrant’s “bet sides” (a separate “bets” video promised)
  • Nike: upcoming fashion-related portfolio discussion
  • “Restaurant/casino/other”: not clear beyond QSR/Accenture/others

Explicit recommendations / cautions summarized

  • SpaceX: Not buying (too unprofitable/high risk; “Musk bet”)
  • ASML: Great business, but valuation risk too high (P/E expanded to the 50s) → too risky for now; reconsider if price falls (“bubble pops”)
  • US Treasuries: Not a fan at current ~5% yield due to inflation/debt/recession/money-printing risks
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Would sell now; long-term return may be fine (~6%), but not a “great return” at current pricing
  • Amazon: Still a value case, but not meeting his “great buy” threshold; waiting for a better discount/recession ugliness
  • Verizon: Moved to lower return (~6%) due to higher valuation and lower dividend yield
  • Meta: More positive than before; expected return ~10–11%, with AI as the key narrative variable
  • China internet ETF: Contrarian positioning at ~10% return due to long stagnation despite fundamental scaling
  • HPQ: Not the same bargain; if you bought for appreciation, consider selling—otherwise keep for business/dividend with ~7% return outlook
  • Microsoft: High risk/reward due to dependence on AI/enterprise growth streams; not dismissed but categorized as riskier

Disclosures / disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles provided.

Presenters / sources (as stated)

  • No individual presenter name is given in the subtitles.
  • The only cited source is the presenter’s own research platform and prior deep-dive videos referenced via links (“check the videos in the link in description below”).

Original video