Pre FOMC Tape Reading

Finance-focused summary (FOMC / intraday tape reading)

• The speaker focuses on intraday “tape reading” / price-action execution ahead of FOMC.
• The emphasis is on patience, confirmation, and liquidity/order-block/imbalance behavior—not fundamentals.

Early session context (New York open)

• They note the market is very early in the session (e.g., “only two candles in”).
• If there is no continuation in the first ~10 minutes, they expect little follow-through for the rest of the day.

Risk / expectation

• Large early moves that lack structure can be manipulation.
• They repeatedly stress the need for confirmation, such as closes relative to key levels.

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Key price-action levels / cues mentioned

Order block / POI framework

• They identify a POI for now and create a rejection block early as an area to watch.
• Example conditional rules:
  • They don’t want a closure above the 0.5 (50%) of the order block; otherwise they expect a revisit of an “IFED” level.
  • If no imbalances are created after the IFED, then the IFED is not reliable to hold.

Imbalance / gap behavior

• They expect retracement back into gaps when there is no immediate displacement.
• A breakaway gap is discussed as a guide for whether expansion/retracement is likely to lead lower, including logic like:
  • If price refuses to close above the 50% of the gap, it tends to continue lower.

Time-based expectations

• Around 9:30–10:00 AM

  • They mention delivery may be delayed.
  • If price ranges between:
    • the bottom of the 9:35 candle, and
    • the top of the 9:30 open, then no delivery is expected until about ~10 AM.

• Near FOMC

  • After ~10:00 AM, they say volume/thesis conviction drops.
  • They avoid new trades because setups become less probable, even if the direction is “right.”

Specific numeric areas (as transcribed)

• One reference: the market is “at like 131.”
• Additional level/area references:
  • 20027 / “200 27 200” area — described as a point price must “spool” above for upside continuation.
  • A range described as between “top… 200” and “lowest… 935” (the level IDs are likely mis-transcribed).
  • Expansion mapping example: “mark it up from 935 up to the 942” (interpreted as 9:35 → 9:42) to illustrate expansion with retracement.

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Methodology / step-by-step framework (implied)

1) Identify early-day structures

• Look for and mark:
  • POI
  • order block
  • rejection block
• Create zones from open candles.
• Track gaps and especially breakaway gaps.

2) Validate direction with “confirmation”

• Require displacement; they imply:
  • No displacement = no real movement, often meaning price returns to the prior range.
• Require specific candle behavior relative to:
  • 0.5 (50%) of the order block
  • and an implied equilibrium concept (terms like CIV/CBI/CB appear inconsistently due to transcript issues).

3) Apply the imbalance/gap rules

• If a gap/imbalance forms but no imbalances appear immediately afterward, treat the signal as untrustworthy.
• Expect retracements into gaps until displacement confirms continuation.

4) Execution timing

• Don’t trade directly off the open; wait for first clear structure (~first 5–10 minutes).
• After ~10 AM (especially near FOMC), be more selective or avoid new trades due to reduced volume and probability.

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Explicit recommendations / cautions

• Be patient: avoid overtrading (e.g., “no reason to… fire off 50 trades in one morning”).
• Avoid entering without market-structure logic, or you’ll likely get stopped out.
• Don’t rely on levels without confirmation:
  • if price doesn’t show displacement / the relevant closures, don’t assume continuation.
• Near FOMC:
  • expect lower volume and less reliable delivery,
  • use that as justification to avoid new trades after 10 AM.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer is visible in the provided subtitles.

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Tickers / assets mentioned

• No specific instrument symbol (ETF, index ticker, stock, crypto, etc.) is named.
• The discussion appears to be about intraday trading using unnamed market/index level behavior, with references to times (9:30, 9:35, 9:42) and price numbers (e.g., ~131).

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• The subtitles reference:
  • a main speaker (name not reliably captured),
  • and mentions of “Professor” and “Quasar” (likely participants),
• No verified external source is provided.