What is the evidence Donald Trump is planning to attack Iran? | Prof Michael Clarke analysis

Possible Indicators of Renewed US Attacks on Iran

Professor Michael Clarke says speculation that the US could resume attacks on Iran after the midterms has been amplified by overnight strikes on Qeshm Island. He stresses that analysts look for operational indicators rather than treating speculation as proof that an attack is planned.

Three indicators to watch

• US force rotations in the region: Two carrier strike groups are already there, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its group are on the way. Amphibious ships and Marine units are also expected to rotate in. If outgoing forces remain after replacements arrive, a routine handover could become a substantial reinforcement. Clarke says the duration of any overlap would be significant.
• Aircraft movements from the US: A build-up of aircraft moving to Europe or the Middle East could signal preparations for air operations. Clarke says such movements have not yet been detected. He considers Europe more likely than regional bases, which he says are less secure.
• B-1 bomber activity: A return of B-1 Lancers to RAF Fairford would be notable because the base’s support wing maintains them. Activity at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri could also offer clues about B-2 bombers, which typically operate from the continental US.

Clarke concludes that changes in how US forces are positioned could indicate preparations for a new offensive, but they might also reflect normal rotations. The key question is whether those rotations become a lasting reinforcement.

Presenter/contributor: Professor Michael Clarke, Sky News defence analyst.