Video summary

The Secrets Behind Quarterly Theory (They Are Hiding This From You)

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Key takeaways

Finance

Finance / Market Concepts (Summary)

Core Framework: “Quarterly Theory”

  • Time is divided into 4 quarters to map market cycles:
    • Q1: Asian session
    • Q2: London session
    • Q3: New York AM session
    • Q4: New York PM session
  • Claim: “time is frail/fragile” (wording unclear) — ideas repeat across time frames.
  • Principle: “nothing is random” — emphasis on cause/effect logic.

Market Profile Templates (Two Main Cycle Types)

Use these templates to anticipate how price may behave within the cycle:

  • AMDX: Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution → Reversal/Continuation
  • XAMD: Reversal/Continuation → Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution

Recommendation: Use the weekly economic calendar to anticipate which profile is likely.

Economic Calendar Mapping (Weekly Expectations)

  • Monday (Q1): bank holiday → expect low probability price action; do not trade
  • Tuesday (Q2): PMI
  • Wednesday (Q3): NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
  • Thursday (Q4): unemployment claims
  • Stated expectation: “amdx profile for this week”, with trading focused Tue–Fri

“True Opens” (Key Reference Price Levels)

Definition: opening prices at specific times (examples given):

  • True Open (Q2 / London): opening price of the London session
  • Or “second trading week of the month” (unclear exact rule)

Rules / Uses

  • Validation: “If a true open is not involved, it is not a judgement/valid setup” (wording unclear).
  • Premium / discount:
    • Buy below true open
    • Sell above true open
  • Support / resistance: can act as S/R.

Timeframe Alignment

  • True year open → weekly timeframe
  • True month open → daily timeframe
  • True week open → 4-hour timeframe
  • True day open → 1-hour timeframe
  • True session open → 5-minute timeframe

SMT / “Sequential SMT” (Intermarket Timing for Reversals)

  • SMT: occurs between quarters; treated as key for reversal points.
  • Sequential SMT: when a reversal occurs, sequential SMT should appear.

Triad Logic (Reversal Sequencing)

  • If a reversal occurs within a Triad (e.g., related assets) and no sequential SMT appears, then sequential SMT may occur between Triads.
  • This is used to define the high/low of the week.
  • Higher-timeframe confirmation: use lower timeframe sequential SMT to confirm.

“Hidden sequential SMT”

  • Same concept but based on candle bodies instead of wicks:
    • One asset closes above another’s prior high-close
    • Another asset closes below
    • → indicates hidden sequential SMT

“Market Triads” / Intermarket Instruments Mentioned

FX / Intermarket Triad examples

  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY (Dollar Index)

Equity-index Triads

  • NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones

Rates Triad examples

  • T-bond 10-year note, 5-year note

Power claim

  • The interest rate Triad is described as “in control of everything” and more powerful than the FX triad.

Rates + Dollar Correlation Claim (Low-Probability Caution)

“Low probability” conditions when:

  • DXY moves in the same direction as interest rates
  • Along with high resistance liquidity (HRLR) next

This is presented as a filter to avoid.

“Cracking Correlation” Concepts

  • SMTF / S M T F (fair-value gap based):
    • After sequential SMT, one asset trades into a fair value gap, while another fails to do so (gap formed at the same time).
  • SMT MSS (market structure shift):
    • After sequential SMT, one asset produces a market structure shift while the other fails—often referencing similar high/low behavior.
  • Additional example: assets (mentions include NQ, ES, YM) trading below true open in different ways; one fails while others do → treated as correlation break.

Friday Setup / “TGF Setup”

  • Referred to as Q0 = Friday
  • Expectation: price may race back 20% to 30% over the weekly range (explicit magnitude given), based on their SMT/triad sequencing logic.

Q1 Function (Not Just Consolidation)

  • Break Q1 into T1, T2, T3 (three parts).
  • Method:
    • Ignore T1
    • Measure the range between T2 and T3
    • Apply Fibonacci retracement + “one standard deviation” above and below the range
  • Claim: these zones are where price is likely to be drawn toward.

Instruments / Tickers / Assets Explicitly Mentioned

  • FX: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY
  • Equity indices: NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones
  • Rates: 10-year note (T-bond), 5-year note
  • Futures examples: NQ, ES, YM
  • Macro events: PMI, NFP, unemployment claims
  • Tools / structure terms: fair value gap, Fibonacci retracement, standard deviation

Step-by-Step Methodology Frameworks

1) Quarterly Theory Mapping

  • Split trading day into 4 sessions (Q1–Q4) and assume repeatable timing/cycle behavior.

2) Weekly Event-Driven Plan

  • Use the economic calendar to identify event days (Mon–Thu mentioned).
  • Expect AMDX for the week.
  • Do not trade Monday (bank holiday / low probability).
  • Trade Tue–Fri.

3) True Open Validation Workflow

  • Determine the correct true open using the timeframe alignment rules.
  • Only treat setups as valid if a true open is involved.
  • Trade relative to true open:
    • Buy below
    • Sell above

4) Reversal / Turning Point Identification

  • Look for sequential SMT around reversals.
  • If missing within a Triad, search between Triads.
  • Confirm higher-timeframe sequential SMT with lower-timeframe sequential SMT.

5) Correlation “Cracks” as Filters

  • Use:
    • SMTF (gap succeeds vs fails across assets)
    • SMT MSS (market structure shift succeeds vs fails)
  • Use interest rates + DXY direction alignment as a low-probability caution filter.

6) Friday (Q0 / TGF) Expectation

  • After their sequential SMT/triad sequencing, expect 20–30% retracement over the weekly range on Friday.

7) Q1 Target Zone Approach

  • Segment Q1 into T1/T2/T3
  • Ignore T1
  • Compute T2–T3 range
  • Apply Fibonacci retracement and ±1 standard deviation bands to estimate attraction zones.

Key Numbers / Explicit Recommendations & Cautions

  • Session structure: 4 quarters per day (15-minute example mentioned in general context).
  • Trading recommendation:
    • Monday: low-probability → do not trade
    • Trade: Tuesday–Friday
  • Friday move estimate: 20%–30% “over the weekly range”
  • Premium/discount rule:
    • Buy below true open
    • Sell above true open
  • Q1 targeting: Fibonacci retracement + 1 standard deviation around the T2–T3 range
  • Caution filter (low probability): when DXY and interest rates move in the same direction plus HRLR

Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was identified in the provided subtitles/summary content.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

  • “day himself” (referenced as origin/teacher; name not otherwise specified)
  • “tr today” (credited as founding the concept; likely a username/author handle)

Original video