Aujourd'hui est-il le pire moment pour investir en bourse?

Summary

The presenter assesses whether now is a particularly bad time to invest in stocks by comparing the market’s current position with historical bull and bear cycles. He focuses on long-run price trends and statistical deviations—not conventional economic valuation—and argues that the market appears extended, but that this does not predict when or how a correction will occur.

Statistical Framework

• Using stock-market data from 1930 onward, he calculates a long-term annual price trend of 7.12%, excluding dividends. The current market level is about 1.63 standard deviations above that trend, compared with roughly 2.14 standard deviations at the dot-com peak.
• Starting the data in 1950 produces a similar result: a 7.36% annual trend, with the market about 1.6 standard deviations above it.
• For the bull market that began in 2009, he estimates an annual trend of 11.8% and says the market is currently around 1.4 standard deviations above that cycle’s trend.
• A market does not need to crash to move closer to its trend. A period of flat prices could allow the trend to catch up to the market and reduce the deviation.
• He presents the analysis as context for market cycles, not as a short-term timing signal.

Historical Cycles Cited

• 1929–1942: A negative-return period associated with the Great Depression, war, unemployment, and banking crises. He estimates returns of about −3.5% per year.
• 1942–1965: A 23-year bull market, rising about 950%, supported by postwar growth, productivity, and industrialization. Its trend was about 10.25% annually.
• 1965–1975: A “lost decade” in which the market fell about 25% overall. He links it to stagflation, an oil shock, unemployment, and the end of Bretton Woods.
• 1975–1999: A 25-year bull market, rising about 2,000%, with an estimated annual trend of 11.5%. He cites disinflation, globalization, productivity, technology, and expanding credit.
• 1999–2009: Another lost decade, associated with the internet bubble and housing and subprime crises. He says investors who bought in 2000 were still down by 2009.
• 2009–2026: The ongoing bull-market cycle, which he says has lasted 17 years by the time of recording. He associates it with low rates, quantitative easing, COVID-era stimulus, and expectations around artificial intelligence.

Across the two earlier long bull markets and the current one, he identifies broadly similar annual trend rates—about 10.2%, 11.5%, and 11.8%—and suggests that the current cycle could still have a later, more explosive phase. He also notes that the internet boom reached around +2 standard deviations near its end and speculates that AI could contribute to a similar late-cycle surge.

Investment Takeaways and Risks

• The presenter says the market is statistically elevated and that a correction, pullback, or period of stagnation could occur. He mentions a possible correction over the next six months to one year, but stresses that this is not a forecast.
• He argues that historical comparisons are based on only a small number of cycles. They are observations, not a scientific law or a reliable crash-timing model.
• He emphasizes investor behavior: people often buy amid optimism and sell amid fear, which can leave their returns below those of market indices. He argues that sticking to a plan and considering investing when sentiment is poor can be difficult but potentially rewarding.
• As personal examples, he says he invested heavily in U.S. stock-market indices during the 2020 COVID crisis, using his inheritance, and also made significant investments during 2022 and 2025. These are personal anecdotes, not guarantees or universal recommendations.
• He warns that headlines and media coverage can become excessively optimistic or pessimistic, partly because attention is rewarded with clicks and views.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

• S&P 500 and U.S. stock-market indices
• Nasdaq
• Cryptocurrency
• Stocks and the broader equity market
• Artificial intelligence and internet-related technology as market themes

Disclosures

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The presenter clarifies that his historical-cycle analysis is not a scientific law or a model for accurately timing a crash.

Presenter/source: Elliot Hewitt, YoungTraderWealth.