Video summary

I Just Bought $15,500 of These Stocks. Here's Why

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Summary (Finance-Focused)

Portfolio performance vs. S&P 500

  • Past week: Couch Investing portfolio down ~6% vs S&P 500 down 2.38%.
  • Year-to-date (YTD): portfolio +36.7% vs S&P +6.9%.
  • Since inception: portfolio +244.45% vs S&P +46.75%.

Upcoming catalysts / earnings week

  • Mentions an “environment happening on Monday after the market closes” (unspecified).
  • Most important for holders: Nike earnings “after the close,” framed around a tariff refund / turnaround story, plus mentions of positive World Cup momentum.
  • Otherwise, the speaker suggests “nothing that interesting” for the rest of the week.

Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

Indexes / funds

  • S&P 500
  • Russell 2000 (referenced via DLO “entered the Russell 2000”)

Stocks / companies

  • Nike
  • PayPal (options strategy referenced; ticker not explicitly stated)
  • Alphabet / Google
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB, implied)
  • Axon (AXON, implied)
  • Meta
  • Uber (UBER, implied)
  • Netflix (NFLX, implied)
  • Nebus / “Nubies” (unclear name; described as “Nebus core reef,” ticker not given)
  • AMD
  • Micron (MU, implied)
  • Rubric (ticker unclear; possibly RBRK/RBRX-type family, ticker not given)
  • DLO
  • Robinhood (HOOD, implied)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Palantir (PLTR)
  • Shift4 (FOUR, implied)
  • Cash (cash allocation mentioned)

Options / derivatives

  • PayPal bull spreads for 2028

Portfolio / Positioning Changes & Explicit Actions

Retirement account

  • Cash: 12.3% after no longer holding Tesla shares in that account.
  • Largest positions (by mention): Melly (likely MercadoLibre), then Meta, then Amazon, then Google.
  • Possible plan with cash: buy more Nvidia if it holds key technical levels.

“Couch Investing” portfolio

  • Nebus remains #1, but size reduced:
    • from ~24% last week to ~21.6% now due to a bad week for “Nebus core reef.”
  • Other top positions by rank / mention:
    • #2 AMD
    • #3 (not explicitly named; “Google taking a little breather”)
    • Rocket Lab appears as #5
    • Micron appears as #6
  • DLO: noted as having entered the Russell 2000 (tailwind from recognition/liquidity).
  • Uber: expectation it returns to ~$100 “slowly but surely” (compared to Robinhood reaching ~$100, now around $98).

New / added share purchases

  • Palantir: bought 100 shares at ~$107; later referenced around ~$112.
  • Rocket Lab: averaging down / re-buying below earlier sale prices:
    • prior trims mentioned: 45 shares at $114, 100 shares at ~ $80 / $87 (approx.)
    • then buying 20 shares at a price above the current ~$88.80, implying the current price is lower than the add level
  • Axon: added 5 extra shares at ~$49 (about +$2,000 of adds); cash became small largely due to these buys.

Technical Analysis Levels (Buy/Add/Hold Conditions)

The speaker uses moving averages and nearby support/resistance zones to decide whether to add or wait.

Nvidia (NVDA) — technical buy framing

  • Weekly: “close to the 50” (likely 50-week MA).
  • Daily: “at the 200-day moving average.”
  • Valuation context: “29.5 forward P/E” is mentioned, but later it’s described as “just under 20 times” (wording appears inconsistent).
  • See “Valuation metrics” for additional figures.

Alphabet / Google

  • Peak reference: $368
  • Friday close: ~$337
  • Key levels:
    • 100-day MA ~ $336 (support)
    • 50-day MA broken at ~$359
    • 200-day MA ~ $386 (price is below it; rebound potential if it holds the current area)

Rocket Lab

  • “Didn’t hold” key moving averages:
    • 50-day ~ $103–$104 broken
    • 110-day SMA ~ $87.5 broken
  • Suggested add zone: low $70s (commentary notes “in the 80s,” but adds already appear to be in that range; speaker wants it lower to justify the level).

Axon

  • Reclaimed resistance; Friday close ~$464
  • Several referenced supports/MA levels appear inconsistent with typical Axon price scaling (likely subtitle/auto-error), but the actionable idea remains:
    • current trend needs to stay above ~$18 (as stated)

Meta / Uber / Netflix / others

  • Meta: add more around ~$500–$520, or if rebound goes above $600–$630.
  • Uber: momentum described positively:
    • last week: $71.60
    • Friday close: $76.20
    • reclaimed 50-day floor ~ $73.50
  • Netflix: waiting near/for the 200-day ~ $70, with a suggested add zone around $73.8
  • Melly (MercadoLibre?): near 200-week SMA ~ $1,672

Palantir & “accumulate over time” logic

  • Palantir treated as an accumulate position; current adds are framed as re-building after an earlier sale.

Valuation Metrics & “Expensive vs. Not Expensive” (Jeremy Grant)

A lengthy valuation discussion with Jeremy Grant centers on whether “expensive” automatically implies market collapse.

Key valuation/statistics mentioned

  • Grant claims:
    • markets are “overpriced,” supported by “100 years of data”
    • current PE is average over 60% higher than the prior 100-year period (as stated)
  • Presenter’s counter-argument:
    • Compares Magnificent 7 vs 2000 tech bubble using profitability:
      • Net profit margin: 28% (2024 aggregate, Tesla/Amazon dilution effect noted) vs 16% (2000)
      • 24-month forward P/E: 23.9x (2024 aggregate) vs 52x (2000)
    • Concludes today’s leaders are more profitable, so comparisons may be “apples to biscuits.”
  • S&P 500 profit margin trend mentioned:
    • 1996: 5.93%
    • Now: approaching ~11% (around 2025 mentioned)
  • Broader NASDAQ profitability trends mentioned:
    • Gross margin: 49.3% → ~65.5%
    • Operating margin: ~20% → ~29.5%
    • Net margin: ~10.74% → ~23.15%

Technology-cycle caution referenced

  • Mentions the risk of overinvestment followed by painful drawdowns (examples include railroads / internet / AI cycles).
  • Example given: Amazon in 2000 fell 92%, later becoming dominant.

Performance Metrics & Risk / Portfolio Management Notes

Concentration / position sizing

  • Mentions a debate about whether the portfolio is too diversified, arguing the holdings are sufficient to outperform across cycles.

Risk framing

  • Cash figures:
    • retirement account cash: 12.3%
    • main portfolio cash: ~1.91% (down from earlier weeks when cash was higher in the top-5)
  • Technical levels are used as practical “if it holds/rebounds, I add” triggers—not valuation alone.

Averaging / re-entry

  • Palantir: re-entry after prior sale; acknowledges missing some timing highs (sold at $69, then stock rose to ~$200).
  • Rocket Lab: re-buys after partial sales at higher prices.
  • Earnings/catalyst timing sometimes drives add behavior (e.g., “if we reach the 200-day it’s probably an after-earnings move”).

Explicit Numbers Tied to Holdings / Decisions

Nvidia

  • Potential add if it stays around:
    • 50-week area and near the 200-day MA
  • Forward valuation figures (appearing inconsistent in wording):
    • “29.5” mentioned, then “just under 20”
  • Valuation metrics cited:
    • P/FCF ~20
    • EV/Sales forward ~10.6x
    • EV/EBITDA forward ~15.4
    • 10-year medians also provided:
      • EV/Sales median 10.6
      • EV/EBITDA median 31

Palantir

  • Bought 100 shares at ~$107
  • Later referenced around ~$112
  • Prior sale: $69 (sold all earlier, Dec 4, 2024 per speaker)

Micron

  • “Very good earnings” and “very good guidance,” with a pattern of initial pop then drop.

Axon

  • Added 5 shares at ~$49
  • Total adds about ~$2,000

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles (none captured verbatim).

Presenters / Sources

  • Jeremy Grant (discussed as a guest; referenced as CNBC-related context)
  • Michael Bur (also discussed; referenced with prior calls)
  • Main channel/host: the speaker running the “Couch Investing” portfolio updates (name not explicitly stated in subtitles).

Original video