France Burns; Russia Hammers West Ukraine Energy System; Kiev Blackouts; Veliky Burluk Battle Begins

Summary

Protests in Europe

Alexander Mercouris opens with protests in France and other European countries, including Belgium, Italy and Albania. He condemns looting and violence, but argues that the unrest reflects public anger over economic decline, political detachment and a worsening budget crisis.

He does not expect the protests alone to topple the French government, but says they could strengthen Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party ahead of the presidential election. He also argues that European elites may respond to unrest with tighter controls rather than changing course.

Strikes and infrastructure in Ukraine

Mercouris discusses President Putin’s reported instruction to continue strikes on Ukrainian energy, transport and other infrastructure following a briefing from General Gerasimov. He describes recent attacks on industrial sites in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, and says Russian forces damaged the approaches to a road bridge over a dam, temporarily disrupting traffic while leaving the dam itself intact.

He also reports that Russian paratroopers crossed the Konka River and took Malokaterynivka, south of Zaporizhzhia. He interprets this move, along with the strikes on the city, as pressure on its defences.

A major focus is the reported expansion of Russian drone strikes into western Ukraine. Mercouris says drones are hitting substations, warehouses and data facilities. He argues that substations are especially important because they distribute power from Ukraine’s nuclear plants and European imports. He links the strikes to recurring blackouts in Kyiv and says Mayor Vitali Klitschko is being made a political scapegoat for outages beyond his control.

Ukrainian attack on St. Petersburg

Mercouris discusses a Ukrainian drone attack on St. Petersburg. Russian accounts reportedly put the number of drones at about 500. He speculates that some may have crossed Baltic or Finnish airspace, while presenting this as an inference rather than a confirmed fact.

Reported targets included an electrical substation, an oil terminal, a VKontakte data centre and an Ozon warehouse. Mercouris says the damage appeared limited, with power quickly restored and no deaths reported, and questions whether the operation justified its estimated cost.

He connects the attack, along with strikes on Russian refineries, to tensions between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. He argues that Zelensky is defying Trump’s calls to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Mercouris expects another major Russian strike, but says such operations are generally planned in advance rather than improvised as retaliation.

Battlefield developments

Mercouris cites a battlefield assessment by Marat Khairullin and other Russian commentators, including former officer Colonel Popov, as broadly supporting Gerasimov’s account of Russian gains.

He says Ukrainian commander Denys Prokopenko’s redeployment of forces toward Dobropillia may have left other positions exposed, contributing to Russian advances around Aleksiivka and Druzhkivka, and the capture of Velyka Mykhailivka. He also relays Donetsk official Denis Pushilin’s claims of heavy Ukrainian losses at Dobropillia, including the destruction of a force of roughly 2,000 troops. These figures are presented as claims, not independently verified in the programme.

Further north, Mercouris says Russian forces may move against Velyky Burluk and then seek to advance toward Izyum and Balakliya. He argues that Izyum’s importance as a road and rail hub could make Ukrainian positions around Lyman and Sviatohirsk difficult to hold if Russia took the city. He speculates that Russia may aim to reach Izyum during the winter, while acknowledging that Velyky Burluk would first have to be captured and that Ukrainian forces are preparing defences.

Starlink reports

Mercouris addresses reports of Starlink speed restrictions affecting Ukrainian operations. Zelensky says restrictions remain, while US officials reportedly deny that a decision to limit the service was made. Mercouris suggests that the conflicting claims may be part of a developing “US betrayal” narrative that could help explain future Ukrainian setbacks.

Essays discussed

To conclude, Mercouris discusses two essays by Katelia the Contemplator. One concerns Soviet Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov’s ideas about “reconnaissance-strike systems,” which Mercouris sees as relevant to today’s battlefield of persistent surveillance and precision strikes. The other examines Russia’s ability to regenerate forces and maintain reserves through its military and industrial systems.

Attribution note

Battlefield developments, casualty figures and damage assessments in the programme are largely attributed to Russian officials, commentators or Mercouris’s own analysis, and are not independently verified in the subtitles.

Presenters and contributors cited: Alexander Mercouris (presenter); Alex Christoforou; Marat Khairullin; Colonel Popov; Katelia the Contemplator; John Helmer.