Stocks, Gold, Silver & Bitcoin Rally While Bonds Continue To Crash!

Market Summary — October 5, 2026

Jason Shapiro said bonds remained weak and set a new closing low, reinforcing his view that the fixed-income market had not yet bottomed. He allowed that bonds could bounce for a few weeks, but cautioned that a longer-term reversal had not been established. With rates rising, he focused on assets that were holding up or rising despite the pressure.

Market Moves and Assets Mentioned

• Bonds and fixed income: Continued weakness, with a new closing low. Shapiro said he did not think a bottom had been reached.
• Nasdaq, QQQ, and AI stocks: Nasdaq and QQQ reached new highs, as did AI stocks.
• Russell: Held up as bonds weakened, including on Friday and Monday. Shapiro called it the standout among stock indexes and noted its resilience given its sensitivity to higher rates.
• Dow: Initially described as being in the red, despite typically reacting poorly to rising rates. The transcript later says all stock indexes rose, so the day’s exact closing direction is unclear.
• Gold and silver: The captions first say they closed in the red, then say both closed “in the black.” Shapiro’s overall point was that they performed better than expected as rates rose.
• Bitcoin: Held up relatively well and, according to Shapiro, rose against the backdrop of higher rates.
• Sugar: Continued rising amid developments around Brazil’s election and a sharp rise in the Brazilian currency. Shapiro viewed that backdrop as supportive but said there was not yet a signal to short sugar.
• Corn and soybean meal: Both were described as weak or volatile, while trader positioning remained heavily long.

Trading Framework and Comments

• Look for confirmation rather than anticipate reversals. Shapiro said his focus is on identifying market reversals, but warned against assuming bonds had bottomed.
• Watch how assets respond to adverse conditions. He viewed the Russell’s ability to stop falling while bonds weakened—and the resilience of gold, silver, and Bitcoin—as potentially meaningful evidence.
• For prospective long positions in resilient assets: Shapiro said the market was giving a “green light,” but suggested placing a stop if price broke below that day’s low. He emphasized that this was not proof of a durable bottom or continuing gains.
• Russell as a possible expression of a rates view: Shapiro called it his preferred choice for positioning around the relevant bond or rate scenario. The captions are inconsistent about whether he meant rising bond prices or rising yields, so the precise intended view is unclear.
• Crowded-positioning approach: He framed trades in crowded markets as opportunities based on asymmetric risk and return, not forecasts. He highlighted the risk that long holders in corn and soybean meal might have to liquidate, potentially creating further downside.
• Sugar: He preferred to wait for a higher price before considering a short; he said no short signal had appeared yet.

Key Numbers and Timing

• The discussion was dated Monday, October 5, 2026.
• Shapiro said he had been arguing for more than a month that bonds had not bottomed.
• He referenced bond and Russell price action on Thursday, Friday, and Monday, including conditions around 1:30 on Monday.
• No specific prices, yields, valuation multiples, or percentage moves were provided.

Disclosures

The video’s accompanying disclosure states that the material is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. It also says CMR Publishing LLC is a content provider, is not registered with the CFTC as a CTA, and does not provide advice tailored to individual clients.

Presenters and sources: Jason Shapiro; Crowded Market Report (crowdedmarketreport.com).