Professor Pape: PROOF Trump Is Planning MAJOR Iran Escalation

Summary

Professor Robert Pape argues that the United States is approaching a particularly dangerous point in the Iran conflict, which he describes as an “escalation trap.” He believes President Trump may have political incentives to intensify the war around the November midterm elections. Pape says the movement of the USS Theodore Roosevelt and roughly 2,000 Marines, alongside Pentagon planning for possible military options, suggests preparations are underway. He urges U.S. forces to return rather than deepen the spiral.

Pape identifies three pressures that could encourage escalation:

• The approaching deployment of U.S. forces.
• Limited ability to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb fuel prices.
• Economic pressure on Iran, which he says has driven inflation there to about 89% without forcing concessions.

He also claims Iran has recently increased attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Pape warns that striking Iranian oil refineries could provoke a response with much greater effects on global energy markets. He says most Iranian oil is used domestically, so refinery attacks could raise costs inside Iran while giving Tehran reason to target Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil-processing facility. In his view, damage to Abqaiq could sharply disrupt oil supplies, push up fuel prices and U.S. borrowing costs, and cause a severe economic crisis.

He also cautions against ground operations to seize Iranian coastal areas or islands to suppress attacks on shipping. Iran could still track targets with mobile radars, small boats, and mines, while U.S. troops and ships would become exposed, relatively stationary targets. Pape adds that moving U.S. forces closer could prompt Iran to consider a preemptive strike.

On diplomacy, Pape doubts a deal is attainable because, in his view, the sides have no mutually acceptable starting point or agreed balance of power, especially over the Strait of Hormuz. He argues that Iran is unlikely to surrender leverage in exchange for promises it may not trust. A host suggests Iran may prefer to wait, endure economic costs, and build up its military capacity. Pape responds that Tehran would need concrete evidence of a lasting change in U.S. policy, such as Congress ending the war’s funding.

Pape says U.S. intervention against the Houthis would further heighten Iran’s incentive to act preemptively and could increase risks for Saudi Arabia. His broader recommendation is de-escalation. He cites his opposition to President Obama’s contemplated 2013 strikes on Syria as an example of how public argument can help prevent a wider war.

At the start, Pape also agrees with a host’s point that mass atrocities are often recognized too late to stop. He cites Rwanda and criticizes the ineffectiveness of international commitments.

Presenters and Contributors

• Professor Robert Pape
• Krystal Ball
• Ryan Grim
• Griffin (surname unclear from the subtitles)