Paweł Malik analizuje 12 spółek z potencjałem do poprawy wyników w 2026 roku

Finance-focused summary (markets + investing thesis + 12 company ideas for 2026)

Market / macro context (Poland; 2025 review framing)

• 2025 was described as a bull continuation, driven mainly by large-cap indices and foreign inflows into Poland.
• Index concentration effect
  • WIG is highly concentrated: the 5 largest companies ~40% of the index weight.
  • Named contributors (as stated):
    • Orlen (~111?)
    • KGHM (~124?)
    • Banks / PZU (bucket described as ~50–60%, though the wording is unclear)
• Breadth vs index performance
  • WIG strength does not equal broad-market strength.
  • In a “WIG vs constituents” framing: only 84 companies were above the index and 296 below.
• Alternative “broad” measure
  • A different broad index (from stuk.pl, “Index of all shares without participation”) rose only ~3%, implying many small/mid companies lagged the headline indices.
• “12-company game” portfolio outcome
  • The tracked portfolio of 12 stocks rose ~47%.
  • This outperformed the “broad” reference (~3%) and also beat headline large-cap returns on a total-return framing.

Performance metrics / outcomes cited

• 2025 headline index performance
  • WIG ~44%
  • WIG20 ~20%
  • Small/mid segments: 30 and 23% (exact mapping unclear due to subtitle ambiguity)
• Total return vs price-only
  • Dividend/total return discussion:
    • WIG total return ~80 (units unclear due to subtitle/caption errors)
    • WIG price-only ~42%
    • Compared with MVIG ~40 (again, subtitle details unclear)
  • Core idea: dividends materially improve results vs price-only performance.

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Core investment methodology / step framework (Paweł Malik’s approach)

High-level thesis

• Companies that improve results (revenues/profits/cash flow) tend to be eventually repriced by the market, sometimes with a multi-month lag.

Selection universe (how the ideas are chosen)

• Pick 3 companies from each of 4 indices:
  • WIG20
  • mWIG40
  • sWIG80
  • broad WIG

What he focuses on

• Fundamental analysis via income statement / P&L line items
  • Revenues
  • Margins/profitability
  • Cash flow was also mentioned
• Near-to-medium term forecasting of positive developments
  • Typically “next few quarters,” not day trading.

Valuation philosophy

• “In the long term, valuation follows results.”
• Preference for companies not too expensive to reduce drawdown risk in downturns.

Process discipline / risk controls

• Exit rule: if the investment thesis breaks (results strategy changes, key risks materialize), close the position.
• No concentration / no “win-or-die” behavior:
  • Lack of diversification can create large losses.
  • A loss in one name is acceptable if overall portfolio risk remains controlled.
• Horizon evolution
  • Investment horizon is described as being extended somewhat: less “only next quarter,” more several quarters.
• New emphasis for the 2026 cycle
  • Explicit recommendation to use brokerage-house analytical materials (often more up-to-date than retail-focused views).

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Explicit cautions / disclaimers

• Repeated disclaimer: “This is not a recommendation”—intended as educational material.
• Brokerage-house views are subjective and can be wrong.
• Emphasis on risk:
  • Opportunities + risks exist in every company.
  • When risks materialize, valuation usually suffers.
• Notes about possible market corrections after long multi-year rallies.
• Uncertainty about 2026 remains.

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12 companies highlighted (by index bucket) with key numbers / catalysts

Note: Several subtitle numbers are unclear due to auto-caption/OCR errors. Below are items that were explicitly stated in the source.

WIG20 bucket (three companies)

1) Kruk (debt collection)

• Thesis: Spain/court/legal issues are improving; the “problem is under control.”
• Catalysts/context
  • Write-offs in Spain followed legal/regulatory changes.
  • Cases transferred to court → expected “unblocking” of recoveries.
  • Considering return to Spain with new purchases around its ~26th year.
• Growth/performance figures mentioned
  • Portfolio level: +15% (described as a “record” despite Spain issues)
  • Repayments: +17% (even with some accounting-profit distortions)
  • Free cash flow: +22%
• Market stance
  • Brokerage optimism mentioned (examples: mBank, Noble Securities, with the exact coverage details unclear).

2) LPP (fashion retailer; importer model)

• Thesis: execution of growth strategy + margin discipline.
• Targets/roadmap (explicit)
  • ~1,000 new stores per year
  • 2027 revenue expectation: PLN 33.34bn vs PLN 23bn (this year)
• Profitability
  • EBITDA expected ~1.8x vs 2024
  • “No write-off for Russian receivables” (as stated in the cited view).
• Macro tailwinds for importers
  • Freight costs down
  • USD “very low”
  • China unused capacity → improved negotiation conditions
• Main risks
  • Store openings may underdeliver on sales per square meter
  • Margin risk if costs rise or demand weakens
• Entry price note
  • Stock price jump in the last days attributed to a “good report,” raising the entry price.

3) Dino (discount grocery)

• Thesis: accelerating store expansion → revenue growth.
• Store counts / growth path
  • 2024: 283 stores
  • 2025: ~320–330 stores
  • Next year: ~380–390 stores
• Revenue growth estimates
  • New store openings alone: ~+12%
  • If LFL ~5% (described as not optimistic): total revenue growth ~+15%
• Cost risk / operating leverage
  • Employee salary costs; risk of wage-related costs / strike talk
  • Mention that Dino may not have a “Company Social Benefits Fund” → cost uncertainty
  • Operating leverage assumption: profit growth > revenue growth if costs don’t outpace revenues.

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mWIG40 bucket (three companies)

4) AB (digital transformation / IT services)

• Thesis: strong pipeline from enterprise digitization and government programs.
• Tailwinds
  • Expected increase in “digital transformation spending”
  • Government programs: KPO plus items like “Digital Student,” and infrastructure requiring equipment
  • Cybersecurity and equipment replacement after a pandemic-era purchase cycle
• Strategic/financial angle
  • Possible acquisitions after supervisory board changes; founder Andrzej Przybyła left and control shifted to funds (details unclear)
  • Funds reportedly prefer acquisitions/dividends; M&A intensity may increase (not guaranteed).
• Market stance
  • Multiple brokerages were referenced (examples mentioned earlier): Bos / Santander / Popema / Trigon.

5) MPL / Mobruk (waste management)

• Thesis: “cleaner slate” after write-offs; capacity ramp + pricing/margins recovery.
• Issues
  • Court proceedings ongoing regarding landfill fee increase in Wałbrzych
  • Write-offs in 2025 reduced year results; speaker: “no longer hangs over the company”
• Capacity/volumes
  • Investment increases production capacity
  • Volumes accepted rising in 2024 and first three quarters of 2025
  • Incineration/stabilization/solidification volumes rising
• Key risks
  • Need to utilize capacity
  • Margin pressure until capacity absorption is complete
• Potential mitigants (as stated)
  • Better margin prospects via “ecological bombs” for incinerators (term unclear but implies support/credits)
  • New investments: EKO point and El KIO (unclear acronyms)

6) Benefit (fitness clubs)

• Thesis: continued domestic base growth + strong international expansion, especially Turkey.
• Tailwinds
  • Fitness club/card ecosystem; domestic leadership
  • International growth focus: Turkey
• Catalyst
  • Entering Turkey via acquisition of a chain (not from scratch)
  • “ABB process” ended; stake sale expected soon → potential valuation support
• Main risk
  • Growth is harder in a mature domestic market; international execution becomes more important.

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sWIG80 / outside main indices bucket (remaining companies)

7) Elektrotim (electrical engineering / transmission; energy transformation)

• Thesis: energy transformation capex → favorable order book; medium-term margin risk.
• Catalysts/environment
  • Transmission modernization tied to the shift away from coal toward renewables
  • High budgets for DSOs; KPO allocation mentioned
  • Framing: energy transformation “no way out”
• Order book
  • Record level: ~PLN 800m
• Strategy/financial points
  • Recent margin disappointment; risk that “work-in-progress valuation” may not reflect true profitability
  • Strategy described as “unambitious” despite favorable environment
• Guidance-like figures (explicit, but timeframe unclear due to OCR issues)
  • Revenue: “2020–2030 billion” (not fully interpretable)
  • EBITDA ~88m and net profit ~67m
• Opportunities
  • Defense infrastructure spending
  • Traction networks, rail modernization, energy storage
  • Nuclear competence: implementing a nuclear project
• Main risk
  • Margin/cost increases and delays → more tender competition.

8) Enter Air (charter airline)

• Thesis: fleet expansion + a contract model that shifts some customer risk to tour operators.
• Fleet catalyst
  • Add 6 aircraft for next season (+19% fleet)
• Business model mechanics
  • Company doesn’t sell directly to retail passengers; tour operators fill the aircraft
  • Fuel/CO2/variable costs passed to operators via agreements (as described)
• Risks
  • Main financial risk: USD currency exposure
  • “Black swan” risk: unexpected events (pandemic/war) disrupting travel demand/connectivity
  • Execution/seasonality: possible need for wet leasing; usage not guaranteed
• Performance figures (explicit)
  • Adjusted net profit after three quarters: PLN 139m vs PLN 122m prior year
  • FX distortions cited as the reason reported results may differ; adjusted results framed as the “true picture.”

9) Selena (construction insulation & chemicals)

• Thesis: EU building energy efficiency policy + reconstruction + favorable input costs (oil).
• Policy catalyst
  • EPBD directive referenced
  • Thermal modernization supports insulation demand
• Cost tailwind
  • Many inputs are petroleum derivatives; low crude oil helps production costs
• Growth/M&A
  • Recent acquisitions in multiple countries (examples implied: Poland, France, Portugal)
  • Joint venture for glass wool plant in Hungary; Selena holds 50%
• Financial highlights (explicit)
  • Profit last 12 months: PLN 111m vs PLN 86m in 2024
  • Revenues not yet growing strongly (speaker: revenues still not showing growth), but acquisitions may lift revenues later.

10) Atrem / Immobile Capital Group exposure (energy construction)

• Atrem
  • Mentioned as “grew almost 300% in 2025”
  • Atrem is a subsidiary of Immobile Capital Group
• Holding valuation discrepancy (explicit)
  • Group valuation: ~PLN 258m
  • Value of Atrem shares held: ~PLN 370m
  • Conclusion: “breakdown” suggests mispricing; holding complexity makes valuation harder.
• Sector link
  • Energy transformation exposure parallels the Elektrotim theme.
• Group catalysts
  • “Get rid of fashion” segment:
    • Losses from fashion business appear in segment results (explicit: PLN 37m losses in first three quarters of 2024; more losses in 2025 mentioned)
    • Speaker claims losses are no longer present in 2026
• Key risks
  • Group debt could be a deterrent (partly secured for developers/hotels)
  • Harder consolidation analysis and attribution of segment impacts.

11) Grodno (electrical distribution / energy storage focus)

• Thesis: recovery from write-downs + participation in energy storage trend.
• Brokerage action
  • Boś: buy recommendation from Nov 30 (explicit date)
• Forecast numbers (explicit)
  • Boś forecast profit: PLN 11m (next year?) and > PLN 20m (explicit “over PLN 20m” for next year)
• Product/strategy
  • Implemented AI system to help customers choose/buy products (speaker skeptical)
  • Strategy 2023–2030 referenced
  • Forecast revenue: ~PLN 2bn from current level just over PLN 1bn
  • If EBITDA margin 5%, EBITDA could be ~PLN 100m
• Risks
  • Macro dependency: construction/renovation rebound needed for distributors
  • Competition; not a market leader.

12) SECO (canned fish & ready meals)

• Broker target price (explicit)
  • Boś strategy 2026: target price PLN 16.60
  • Current price: PLN 8.68
  • Implied upside: ~100%
• Business drivers
  • Very high growth dynamics in ready-made meals (fish/seafood)
  • Canned fish production increasing; fish marinades prices stable
• Financials & shareholder structure (explicit items)
  • Financial assets surplus: ~PLN 24m
  • Dividend yield: ~7%
  • Earnings cited: “listed at a profit of 6” (metric unclear due to subtitle error)
  • Low valuation partly explained by supply overhang from liquidated Opera funds; Boś expects supply to end → valuation support.
• Risks (explicit)
  • “Frozen/long wait” risk: no strong macro catalyst for a revenue surge
  • Ready meals currently “small”; may take years
  • Retail chain negotiation power → price pressure and margin risk
  • Liquidity concerns for a small company
• Disclosure
  • Speaker: “I do not own this company… showing it with reservations.”

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Key overall takeaways / recommendations-style points (without being “advice”)

• Prefer fundamental improvement in revenues/profits/cash flow over short-term market timing.
• Use brokerage research actively, not only headline recommendations.
• Expect uncertainty for 2026 after a long multi-year rally; avoid overreacting to fears.
• Maintain diversification and exit when the thesis breaks.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Paweł Malik (investment advisor; co-founder of an analysis portal; featured speaker)
• Piotr (host/moderator)
• Tomasz Hoń / Quercus (mentioned via discussion context)
• Brokerage houses referenced (examples named): mBank, Noble Securities, Boś, Santander, Popema, Trigon, BDM
• Index source/tool referenced
  • stuk.pl (“Index of all shares without participation”)