Margaret MacMillan Warns: The World Order Is Collapsing - And What's Coming Is Far Worse

Summary

Historian Margaret MacMillan argues that the world is undergoing a historic transformation driven by overlapping crises: climate change, migration, technological change, major-power rivalry, war, and uncertainty about future pandemics. She says the United States, formerly a pillar of the international system, is now undermining it—contributing to a sense that familiar rules and expectations are disappearing.

MacMillan sees warning signs that resemble the period before World War I more than the 1930s. Before 1914, many people believed that trade, international cooperation, and social progress had made a major war unlikely. She warns that similar confidence in stability today can obscure growing dangers. Current risks include drone warfare and AI, renewed wars between states, and increasing civil conflicts. She is also concerned that the war in Ukraine could become more entangled with other regional conflicts.

She argues that the rules-based international order is imperfect but worth preserving. A world governed simply by power and spheres of influence would be unstable: smaller states would resist domination, while competing powers would face recurring rivalries and disputes over where their spheres meet.

MacMillan is particularly concerned that U.S. policy is weakening America’s own power by alienating allies, damaging research and universities, discouraging international talent, and removing experienced military officers. Even if a future administration restores more traditional policies, she cautions, rebuilding trust with allies could take years or even a generation. Damage to institutions and unwritten political norms may also be difficult to reverse.

The excerpt ends as the host asks MacMillan to explain her concern about the number of guns in the United States and the possibility of armed conflict amid social division. Her answer is not included in the free portion.

Presenters and Contributors

• Margaret MacMillan
• Dominik Presl (host)