The Accuracy AND Big Winners Combo Strategy

Summary

Justin Spero presents a momentum scalp called the “Fashionably Late” setup. Instead of trying to buy the exact intraday low, the trader waits for a stock to turn and show recovering momentum, then enters when its 9-period EMA crosses VWAP. The trade is intended to capture a short-term move, not to hold the stock as an investment.

Setup and trade framework

1. Wait for a reversal to begin: The stock sells off, establishes an intraday low, and stops falling.
2. Look for a recovery toward VWAP: VWAP is the session’s volume-weighted average price and serves as a reference for the day’s average traded price.
3. Use the 9 EMA/VWAP cross as confirmation: The 9-period EMA is the faster-moving indicator. Its cross above VWAP is the long-entry signal.
4. Enter at the cross: Spero says not to wait for the candle to close or for several additional bars.
5. Set the stop and target from the measured move: Measure the distance from the intraday low to the entry. The target is one such distance above the entry; the stop is about one-third of the way back toward the low. The presenter describes this as approximately 3:1 reward-to-risk.
6. Reverse the logic for shorts: Apply the setup in the opposite direction for a short trade.

Filters and cautions

• Favor a steady, stable move from the low back toward VWAP. Avoid erratic movement that shows little progress.
• After the cross, the stock should hold higher. Exit if price action is unstable or slow.
• Avoid a sharp pullback without renewed momentum, or price that stalls around the entry for roughly 10–15 minutes.
• Skip a prospective trade if the 9 EMA goes flat before entry; the presenter treats this as a sign that momentum has stalled.
• Check whether volume is returning, whether the push from the low is stable, and whether price is holding the 9 EMA.
• The stated trading windows are 10:00–10:45 and 10:46–1:30. The transcript does not specify a time zone. The presenter cautions that the setup may work poorly outside these windows.
• On the daily chart, he generally looks for strong stocks retracing toward short-term moving averages, particularly the 5-day and 10-day averages.
• The central caution is not to “catch a falling knife” by guessing the bottom. Wait for evidence that momentum has turned.

Examples and performance

• Rocket Lab (RKLB): The transcript gives an intraday low around $115.50, an entry near $120, a target around $124.50–$125, and a stop around $118–$118.50. It then says the stock reached $130. The accompanying claim that the trade risked “about $50 to earn about four and a half dollars” appears inconsistent with the other quoted levels and may be a subtitle error.
• Astera Labs (ALAB): Low around $291, cross or entry near $303, followed by a move to $322.
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): Low around $25.70, cross or entry near $26.60, followed by a move to $28.

Spero estimates that the setup is profitable about 60% of the time, with winners typically paying around 3:1 or better relative to losses. He presents this as his experience, not as audited performance data, and acknowledges that losing trades occur.

Promotional content and disclosures

The video later includes a recruiting pitch for SMB Capital. Mike Bellafiore says the firm is seeking traders for in-house and remote roles and promotes access to firm capital, coaching, and resources. The pitch claims that some traders earn seven-figure sums and that top traders made nearly $20 million each in net trading profits in one year. These are promotional claims in the video.

The transcript contains no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer.

Presenters and source: Justin Spero and Mike Bellafiore; SMB Capital.