Putin Tells Generals Keep Striking Ukraine Russia Takes Dobropilia Key Towns; Trump Waives Sanctions

Summary

Alexander Mercouris argues that recent battlefield reports point to a worsening position for Ukrainian forces, particularly south of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk area. He says Russian forces have captured Dobropillia and Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, entered Druzhkivka, and taken nearby settlements. He considers the reported capture of Dobropillia credible despite the lack of Russian flag-raising footage in some areas, suggesting that Ukrainian drones could make such displays dangerous. He regards reports about Malokaterynivka, near Zaporizhzhia, as less certain.

Mercouris says these advances could increase pressure on the southern approaches to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. He links the reported crisis to the reassignment of Azov commander Denys Prokopenko and the possible movement of Andriy Biletsky and his 3rd Assault Brigade south to reinforce the area.

Citing the Russian outlet Rybar and General Gerasimov’s briefing to Putin, Mercouris says Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman area failed to achieve its ambitious goals and resulted in heavy losses. He argues that the operation stretched Ukrainian forces and may have contributed to the vulnerability of the southern front. He cautions that not all of these battlefield accounts are independently confirmed.

Mercouris also reports Gerasimov’s claim that Russian forces have cleared the Kharkiv “cauldron.” He interprets this claim, together with advances near Dobropillia and Druzhkivka, as evidence of a broader military crisis for Ukraine and a tightening Russian advance around the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Russia’s air campaign

Mercouris says Gerasimov presented attacks on bridges, railways, energy infrastructure, and ports as part of an overall strategy, and that Putin instructed the military to continue them. Mercouris argues that Russia now has greater capacity than it did in 2022 to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, citing its missiles, drones, aircraft, and surveillance systems.

He says recent Geran drone attacks in western Ukraine caused damage and that he has seen no clear evidence that Ukraine successfully intercepted them. He also suggests Russia’s Rassvet satellite system may be supporting drone operations, while acknowledging that its capabilities are not fully established.

Political and financial issues

Mercouris says Zelensky is seeking roughly €155 billion from the EU for Ukraine’s 2027 war effort, while noting that other reported figures differ. He questions how the funding would be raised and whether it would be enough to change the battlefield situation.

He also discusses Zelensky’s warning that continued attacks and a harsh winter could drive as many as 20 million people westward. Mercouris considers a large refugee flow a genuine risk but says the figure may be exaggerated.

Sanctions

Mercouris welcomes President Trump’s decision not to impose the sweeping sanctions associated with Lindsey Graham’s bill. He says the law gives Trump discretion to waive the sanctions on national-security grounds. He argues that steep tariffs on Russia and countries buying Russian energy would worsen energy shortages and inflation, and criticizes lawmakers and commentators calling for the measures as economically self-defeating.

Presenters and contributors

• Presenter: Alexander Mercouris
• Contributors and commentators cited: Alex Christoforou and Scott Ritter
• Other sources or figures discussed: Rybar, Marat Khairullin, and Andriy Marochko