The Best SWING Trading Strategy EVER?

Summary

Andrea Cimi presents a macro-driven swing-trading approach based on the idea that large institutions divide big orders over time to reduce market impact. He argues this can create persistent order-flow trends, which swing traders can follow rather than trying to predict short-term price moves from technical patterns alone. The proposed process combines macroeconomic analysis, intermarket relationships, positioning data, and volume-based entries.

Framework and methodology

1. Form a macroeconomic view

   • Track inflation, employment, GDP, consumer and business sentiment, and purchasing managers’ indexes.
   • Infer how those indicators may affect central-bank policy, especially interest-rate decisions.
   • The presenter says markets often anticipate economic changes by roughly 6–9 months.

2. Map the likely intermarket effects

   • Bonds: Treasuries are presented as a major safe-haven market and a key reference for yields.
   • Forex: Bond-yield differences between countries are presented as a main driver of currency pairs. The carry trade—borrowing in a low-yield currency to invest in a higher-yielding one—is given as an example.
   • Gold: The presenter emphasizes real yields—the yield after inflation expectations—as a key influence. Lower real yields are said to favor gold; higher real yields can weigh on it.
   • Stocks and crypto: These are framed as risk-sensitive assets that tend to benefit from easy financial conditions and suffer when recession risks rise.
   • These are presented as tendencies, not guaranteed outcomes.

3. Check what market participants are doing

   • Review the COT (Commitment of Traders) report, published weekly, particularly the positions of non-commercial participants such as large speculators.
   • Combine positioning with price and volume analysis; for equities, also monitor the VIX.

4. Time entries using auction-market and volume-profile concepts

   • Identify a high-volume “fair value” area where trading has concentrated.
   • Trend-following entry 1 — failed auction/re-entry: After price moves outside the value area, wait for it to close back inside; the presenter treats this as a potential signal to trade toward the opposite side of the range.
   • Trend-following entry 2 — breakout/retest: After price breaks out and builds value beyond the prior area, wait for a retest before entering in the breakout direction.
   • Mean-reversion alternative: In range-bound markets, trade a failed move beyond a longer-term value area back toward the other side of the range.
   • Adapt the approach by market: the presenter favors buying stock-market dips, using mean reversion more often in range-bound forex or gold conditions, and considering the VIX as an alternative to directly shorting equities.

5. Manage exposure

   • Favor setups with favorable risk/reward asymmetry, use stops where appropriate, and avoid building excessive exposure to highly correlated trades.
   • The presenter notes that options can limit or alter risk, but gives examples where options liquidity may be limited.

Macro and market concepts discussed

• The Federal Reserve’s two stated mandates are stable prices and maximum employment. The presenter uses a 2% inflation target as a reference point and describes interest rates and open-market operations—including quantitative easing and tightening—as central-bank tools.
• He describes expansions as periods when borrowing and spending support economic activity, and contractions as periods when debt service, lower spending, and weaker employment can reinforce a downturn.
• The presenter says yield-curve inversions have historically preceded recessions, and describes an inversion followed by steepening as a recession warning. This is his characterization of history, not a guarantee that a recession will follow.
• Bond yields are explained as reflecting the policy-rate environment plus time, credit risk, and inflation expectations. Investment-grade and “junk” bonds are distinguished by credit quality and required yields.

Examples and figures cited

These are the presenter’s reported examples and market observations; they are not independently verified in the subtitles.

• Gold: He says a September 2023 call preceded an approximately 86% rise over the following two years, with gold later reaching about $5,200. In another example, he describes waiting for inflation to ease and the Fed to move toward rate cuts before seeking a long entry, with $4,000 mentioned as a possible target.
• GBP/USD: He reports a 2021 short call that captured a decline of about 26%, or 4,000 pips.
• U.S. Treasury yields: A chart example described as being in 2026 gives the Fed funds target as 3.5–3.75%, the one-month yield at 3.72%, the 10-year at 4.5%, and the 20-year at 5%. For 2022–23, he cites a 3-month yield of 5.3% versus a 30-year yield of 3.9% to illustrate inversion.
• USD/JPY and carry trade: Illustrative yields of 5% for U.S. bonds and 1% for Japanese bonds are used to explain why investors might favor dollars over yen.
• Oil and gold: In an oil-trading example, he cites a range with an average near $96 per barrel and describes buying crude-oil puts near the top of the value area and using a bull call spread near the bottom. He links higher oil prices with inflation risk and the possibility of higher rates.
• VIX: He reports buying VIX futures around 16 and targeting 23. Elsewhere, he discusses buying near 17, using a VIX rise toward 20 alongside a 2–3% stock-market dip as a possible signal, and describes 10 as a historical lower bound. These are presented as his observations and trading rules of thumb.
• AUD/CAD: He describes a long trade based on differing central-bank stances and reports a 1:2 risk/reward result.
• Nvidia: He describes a long trade after a failed auction below a long-term value area, reporting examples around 1:4 to 1:5 risk/reward, and says he exited before earnings due to uncertainty around the announcement.
• The video also cites illustrative inflation readings of 9% after the COVID-era shock and 2.5% in a later policy discussion.

Assets, sectors, and instruments mentioned

• Currencies and pairs: U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar; GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD; the dollar index.
• Bonds and rates: U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, Treasury yields across maturities, bond spreads, real yields, Fed funds rate, and the yield curve.
• Equities and indexes: S&P 500, SPY, Nasdaq 100, NQ futures, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000.
• Companies and themes: Apple, Tesla, Alphabet/Google, Nvidia, Meta/Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft—the “Magnificent 7”—plus technology, financials, communication services, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care, and energy.
• Other assets and instruments: Gold, Bitcoin, crude oil, crypto, the VIX and VIX futures, stock and commodity futures, ETFs, put options, and bull call spreads.
• Funds and approaches: The ARK Innovation Fund is cited in a growth-investing example; value investing, growth investing, stock picking, and index investing are discussed.

Disclosures and cautions

Cimi repeatedly says the material is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. He warns against gambling on high-volatility data releases and notes that trades can fail, stops can be hit, options may be illiquid, and correlated positions can increase exposure to one scenario. The video’s historical trade results and broad market claims are the presenter’s own examples and should not be treated as guarantees of future performance.

Presenters and sources

Presenter: Andrea Cimi.

People cited: Jan Smolen (also rendered “Yan Smolen” in the subtitles), described by Cimi as a trading champion and finance professor; trading partner Fabio Valentini; and Jerome Powell in a discussion of the Fed’s mandate.

Sources and platforms mentioned: CFTC COT reports, the Federal Reserve and its data, US Treasurycurve.com, TradingView, and BNP Paribas.